{"id":"N000147","trades":[{"date":"2014-02-26","filed":"2014-03-11","ticker":null,"issuer":"ML: Wash DC CCA Dedicated Bond","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H9105111-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2014/9105111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2014-02-28","filed":"2014-03-11","ticker":null,"issuer":"ML: MD ST Cmnty Dev Admin Bond","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H9105111-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2014/9105111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2015-01-02","filed":"2015-02-05","ticker":null,"issuer":"Palatine ILL 7/1% DEC89 0.0%Jan01 15","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20002500-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20002500.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2015-01-07","filed":"2015-01-16","ticker":null,"issuer":"District Columbia Ser A 5% 6/1/2030","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20002403-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20002403.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2015-03-23","filed":"2015-03-31","ticker":"WGL","issuer":"WGL Holdings Inc","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20002796-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20002796.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2015-09-01","filed":"2015-09-30","ticker":null,"issuer":"Victor VY Ca UN HSD 1994 6.4%CI 9/1/15","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20003859-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20003859.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2015-09-28","filed":"2015-09-30","ticker":null,"issuer":"Rev Issues Prior to 5/20/10 NPR","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"dependent","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20003859-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20003859.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2015-11-01","filed":"2015-12-04","ticker":null,"issuer":"DuPage Cnty ILL FST Presv Dist 6.25%CI LT May00 0.0%","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20004199-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20004199.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2016-07-01","filed":"2016-07-05","ticker":null,"issuer":"Seminole Cnty FL Sch Brd Bond 4.0%JUL01 16","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20005447-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2016/20005447.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2016-08-31","filed":"2016-09-01","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20005793-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2016/20005793.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.009239},{"date":"2017-02-22","filed":"2017-02-24","ticker":null,"issuer":"District of Columbia Wtr & Swr Ser C 5%Oct01 2039","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20006802-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20006802.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2018-08-15","filed":"2018-09-06","ticker":null,"issuer":"Leander Tex Indpt Sch Bond 3.35%CI 0.0%AUg15","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20010230-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2018/20010230.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2018-09-12","filed":"2018-09-14","ticker":null,"issuer":"Go BOND 4.0% JUN01 2036","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"dependent","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20010294-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2018/20010294.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2019-06-13","filed":"2019-07-08","ticker":null,"issuer":"Miami Beach FL Bond 4.375%SEP01 28","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20011954-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20011954.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2020-02-25","filed":"2020-03-07","ticker":null,"issuer":"Metro Wash DC Arpts Auth Dulles Toll Rd 7.85%CI 0 Pct 10/01/2038","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20016183-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016183.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2020-02-25","filed":"2020-03-07","ticker":null,"issuer":"Va St Res Auth Infrastucture 8/14/2019 3 Pct 11/01/2036","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20016183-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016183.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2020-06-01","filed":"2020-07-09","ticker":null,"issuer":"Income Bond 5.0% Dec01 24","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"dependent","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20016917-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016917.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-03-01","filed":"2021-04-12","ticker":null,"issuer":"Maryland St CDA Dept Hsg-Cmnty 4.0% SEP01 2029","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20018566-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018566.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2023-04-03","filed":"2023-05-04","ticker":null,"issuer":"Rev NPR MAY13 4.0% APR01 2037","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"dependent","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20022858-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022858.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2023-06-01","filed":"2023-07-11","ticker":null,"issuer":"Ser A DEC13 5.0% JUN01 2030","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"dependent","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20023290-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023290.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2023-10-13","filed":"2023-10-24","ticker":null,"issuer":"VA St Res Auth Infrastructure 8/14/2019 3 Pct 11/01/2036","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20023893-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023893.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2023-12-21","filed":"2023-12-28","ticker":null,"issuer":"Metro Wash DC Arpts Auth Dulles Toll Rd 7.85%CI B 0% 10/01/2038","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20024205-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20024205.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-04-04","filed":"2024-04-15","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024876-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024876.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.028126},{"date":"2024-04-04","filed":"2024-04-15","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"BRK.B","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQN000147-20240415-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.028126},{"date":"2024-04-08","filed":"2024-05-13","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025052-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025052.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.02439},{"date":"2024-04-08","filed":"2024-05-13","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025053-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025053.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.02439},{"date":"2024-04-08","filed":"2024-05-13","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"BRK.B","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQN000147-20240513-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.02439},{"date":"2024-05-13","filed":"2024-05-21","ticker":null,"issuer":"GO BOND 4.0% JUN01 2036","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"dependent","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20025107-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025107.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-05-13","filed":"2024-05-21","ticker":null,"issuer":"District of Columbia Wtr & Swr Ser C 5%Oct01 2039","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20025107-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025107.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-05-13","filed":"2024-05-21","ticker":null,"issuer":"VA St Res Auth Infrastructure 8/14/2019 3 Pct 11/01/2036","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20025107-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025107.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-08-27","filed":"2024-09-05","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025789-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025789.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.046791},{"date":"2024-08-27","filed":"2024-09-05","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"BRK.B","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQN000147-20240905-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.046791},{"date":"2025-03-05","filed":"2025-03-11","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20027950-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20027950.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.015681},{"date":"2025-03-05","filed":"2025-03-11","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"BRK.B","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQN000147-20250311-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.015681},{"date":"2025-10-14","filed":"2025-10-21","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033318-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20033318.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.017537},{"date":"2025-10-14","filed":"2025-10-21","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"BRK.B","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQN000147-20251021-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.017537}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"38% of 13 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.385, 90% Wilson [0.202, 0.607]. No firm-event calendar, so the event-linked size gap was not computed.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.384615,"ci":[0.201593,0.607392],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":13,"lowest_band_share":0.384615,"lowest_band_ci":[0.201593,0.607392],"share_over_50k":0.076923,"max_z":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"2 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 1.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.863 (identified set [0.675, 0.954]); trade-count HHI 0.858 vs. 95th percentile 0.089 of 13 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy nan [nan, nan]. Top three issuers (BRK.B, WGL) carry at least 100% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":1.159224,"ci":[1.047976,1.481158],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":13,"issuers":2,"hhi_mid":0.862646,"hhi_bounds":[0.675147,0.954221],"n_eff":1.159224,"hhi_count":0.857988,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.088757,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":null,"sector_entropy_ci":[null,null],"top3_share_lower":1,"top3":["BRK.B","WGL"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"0% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 0.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.2%).","detail":"Batch-day share 0/7, Wilson [0.00, 0.28]; index of dispersion 2.07 (chi-square p = 1.38e-208); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.000 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.062, p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.278763],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":13,"trade_days":7,"batch_share_trades":0,"batch_day_share":0,"batch_day_ci":[0,0.278763],"dispersion_index":2.07296,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0,"proximity_null_mean":0.062124,"proximity_null_p95":0.307692,"proximity_p":1,"proximity_nonroutine":0,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 12 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.40% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0040; 90% KP interval [-0.9472, 0.9552]; t_BMP = 0.58, r-bar = 0.990, t_KP = 0.02, Patell Z = 0.86, Corrado Z = 0.88. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0465, 0.0003]. Calendar-time alpha -13.79%/yr (NW t = -0.79, 107 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.004022,"ci":[-0.94717,0.955213],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.784638,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.002526},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.061916},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"not_assessed","value":-0.00669},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":0.003221},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"does_not_fit","value":0.00034},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.137897}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"theta":0.004022,"ci":[-0.94717,0.955213],"p":0.493482,"t_kp":0.016715,"rbar":0.99,"se_cs":0.01536,"se_kp":0.529651,"t_cs":0.261819,"t_bmp":0.576366,"patell_z":0.858104,"corrado_z":0.881294,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.046467,0.00034],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000547,"se":0.000694,"days":107,"t":-0.787952,"p_one_sided":0.784638},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001794,0.0007],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":12,"theta":0.002526,"ci":[-0.504847,0.5099],"p":0.496253,"t_kp":0.009607,"rbar":0.99,"se_cs":0.008193,"se_kp":0.28252,"t_cs":0.308321,"t_bmp":0.331282,"patell_z":0.61943,"corrado_z":1.103291},"21":{"n":12,"theta":0.004022,"ci":[-0.94717,0.955213],"p":0.493482,"t_kp":0.016715,"rbar":0.99,"se_cs":0.01536,"se_kp":0.529651,"t_cs":0.261819,"t_bmp":0.576366,"patell_z":0.858104,"corrado_z":0.881294},"63":{"n":12,"theta":0.061916,"ci":[-0.584663,0.708495],"p":0.443613,"t_kp":0.14514,"rbar":0.99,"se_cs":0.010441,"se_kp":0.360034,"t_cs":5.929956,"t_bmp":5.004691,"patell_z":3.548963,"corrado_z":3.207395}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.500. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.4997,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2025-03-10","move":-0.026636,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 36 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 11 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.070]; 90th percentile lag 35 days; longest 42 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.069901],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":36,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.069901],"median_lag":11,"p90_lag":35,"max_lag":42,"filings":31,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":12,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 8% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSGO, HSPW; jurisdiction sectors Air Freight & Logistics, Cargo Ground Transportation, Construction & Engineering, Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment, Construction Materials, Environmental & Facilities Services, Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines, Passenger Airlines, Passenger Ground Transportation, Rail Transportation, Water Utilities. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap 0.000-0.000); benchmarks S&P 500 0.075, congressional peers 0.032.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.075248,"ci":[-0.075248,-0.075248],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[0,0],"benchmark_sp500":0.075248,"benchmark_peers":0.031694,"excess":-0.075248,"excess_ci":[-0.075248,-0.075248],"committees":["HSGO","HSPW"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Air Freight & Logistics","Cargo Ground Transportation","Construction & Engineering","Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment","Construction Materials","Environmental & Facilities Services","Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Passenger Airlines","Passenger Ground Transportation","Rail Transportation","Water Utilities"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 12 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 12 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":12,"events":1488}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2024-04-04 (permutation p = 0.012).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2024-04-04","changepoint_LR":11.578913,"changepoint_p":0.012,"tradeday_rate_before":0.000848,"tradeday_rate_after":0.012531}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 69% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0040, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.004022,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.686567,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"2 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson [0.22, 1.00], exact one-sided p = 0.250; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.223607,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.25,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":2,"hits":2,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.223607,1],"priced":12,"share_followed":0.166667}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"38% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 18%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.385; circular-shift null mean 0.178, 95th pct 0.538, p = 0.220. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0408, p = 0.277.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.384615,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.277385,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.384615,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":13,"cotraded_share":0.384615,"null_mean":0.177933,"null_p95":0.538462,"excess_p":0.22,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.384615,"excess_p_wo_top":0.23,"cotraded_car":0.040832,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.095083,0.176747],"cotraded_car_p":0.277385}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"Only 8 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","detail":"Only 8 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"owner_unknown":5}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2025-03-10","event_date":"2025-03-10","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.66,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}