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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034998-030","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034998.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.059476},{"date":"2026-07-10","filed":"2026-07-17","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034998-031","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034998.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.00965}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of 199 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 1.000, 90% Wilson [0.987, 1.000]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":1,"ci":[0.986587,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":199,"lowest_band_share":1,"lowest_band_ci":[0.986587,1],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":12,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"92 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 67 and trading spans 89% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.015 (identified set [0.011, 0.124]); trade-count HHI 0.015 vs. 95th percentile 0.009 of 199 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.89 [0.87, 0.92]. Top three issuers (DE, NVDA, MPC) carry at least 1% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":67.463373,"ci":[8.065688,92],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":199,"issuers":92,"hhi_mid":0.014823,"hhi_bounds":[0.01087,0.123982],"n_eff":67.463373,"hhi_count":0.014823,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.008863,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.890051,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.874617,0.920439],"top3_share_lower":0.006593,"top3":["DE","NVDA","MPC"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"85% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 1% of trades look routine; 6.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.6%).","detail":"Batch-day share 11/13, Wilson [0.63, 0.95]; index of dispersion 27.02 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.01 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.060 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.066, p = 0.588.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.846154,"ci":[0.625337,0.94771],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.588,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.95875,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":199,"trade_days":13,"batch_share_trades":0.984925,"batch_day_share":0.846154,"batch_day_ci":[0.625337,0.94771],"dispersion_index":27.01653,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.005025,"proximity_share":0.060302,"proximity_null_mean":0.066102,"proximity_null_p95":0.120603,"proximity_p":0.588,"proximity_nonroutine":0.060606,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 195 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.53% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0053; 90% KP interval [-0.0257, 0.0363]; t_BMP = 1.04, r-bar = 0.028, t_KP = 0.41, Patell Z = 1.16, Corrado Z = -0.26. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.1010, 0.1144]. Calendar-time alpha -17.77%/yr (NW t = -1.14, 244 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.005262,"ci":[-0.025736,0.03626],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.873547,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.0012},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.010417},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.005568},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000087},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.114388},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.177744}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":195,"theta":0.005262,"ci":[-0.025736,0.03626],"p":0.342734,"t_kp":0.405621,"rbar":0.02796,"se_cs":0.007296,"se_kp":0.018755,"t_cs":0.721302,"t_bmp":1.042764,"patell_z":1.161322,"corrado_z":-0.261343,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.100959,0.114388],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000705,"se":0.000617,"days":244,"t":-1.143319,"p_one_sided":0.873547},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001725,0.000314],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":195,"theta":0.0012,"ci":[-0.013886,0.016286],"p":0.396915,"t_kp":0.261702,"rbar":0.02796,"se_cs":0.003551,"se_kp":0.009128,"t_cs":0.337953,"t_bmp":0.672779,"patell_z":0.760966,"corrado_z":0.184858},"21":{"n":195,"theta":0.005262,"ci":[-0.025736,0.03626],"p":0.342734,"t_kp":0.405621,"rbar":0.02796,"se_cs":0.007296,"se_kp":0.018755,"t_cs":0.721302,"t_bmp":1.042764,"patell_z":1.161322,"corrado_z":-0.261343},"63":{"n":195,"theta":0.010417,"ci":[-0.04156,0.062394],"p":0.401771,"t_kp":0.249107,"rbar":0.02796,"se_cs":0.012233,"se_kp":0.031449,"t_cs":0.851561,"t_bmp":0.640402,"patell_z":0.696505,"corrado_z":-0.470037}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.498. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.498,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2022-03-09","move":0.026811,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":25,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,1.508692],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,1.508692],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,25.777294],"absence_days":15,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"52 of 212 trades (24.5%) were disclosed late; median lag 35 days.","detail":"Late share 0.245, Wilson [0.200, 0.297]; 90th percentile lag 444 days; longest 570 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.245283,"ci":[0.200088,0.296898],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":212,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":52,"late_from_trade":52,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.245283,"late_ci":[0.200088,0.296898],"median_lag":35,"p90_lag":444,"max_lag":570,"filings":7,"late_filings":2,"late_priced":51,"timely_priced":144,"late_priced_dates":5}},{"id":"T8","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"18% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 12% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAG, HSAP, HSZS; jurisdiction sectors Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Agricultural Products & Services, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Financial Exchanges & Data, Food Distributors, Packaged Foods & Meats, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors, Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals, Timber REITs. Dollar share 0.179 (identified set [0.014, 0.766], bootstrap 0.146-0.223); benchmarks S&P 500 0.109, congressional peers 0.117.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.062153,"ci":[0.028543,0.106113],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":195,"in_jurisdiction_trades":35,"share":0.179487,"share_bounds":[0.014388,0.766244],"share_ci":[0.145877,0.223447],"benchmark_sp500":0.108911,"benchmark_peers":0.117334,"excess":0.062153,"excess_ci":[0.028543,0.106113],"committees":["HSAG","HSAP","HSZS"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Agricultural & Farm Machinery","Agricultural Products & Services","Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals","Financial Exchanges & Data","Food Distributors","Packaged Foods & Meats","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors","Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Timber REITs"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"11 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 6 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"11 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 6 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"n_other":184,"trade_dates":6,"events":357}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2024-09-30, trading ran at 2.95 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2024-09-30, trading ran at 2.95 times its earlier rate. Change point 2020-10-02 (p = 0.128).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":2.953564,"ci":[2.312549,3.779468],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Raw Story: members of the 118th Congress who violated the STOCK Act","url":"https://www.rawstory.com/congress-stock/"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2020-10-02","changepoint_LR":7.60076,"changepoint_p":0.128,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.007968,"scrutiny_date":"2024-09-30","rate_ratio":2.953564,"rate_ratio_ci":[2.312549,3.779468]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 72% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0053, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.005262,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.716418,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"29 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 16 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.55, Clopper-Pearson [0.38, 0.71], exact one-sided p = 0.356; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.551724,"ci":[0.384392,0.710729],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.355536,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":29,"hits":16,"hit_rate":0.551724,"ci":[0.384392,0.710729],"priced":195,"share_followed":0.148718}},{"id":"T13","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"28% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 19%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.281; circular-shift null mean 0.185, 95th pct 0.257, p = 0.010. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0116, p = 0.340.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.281407,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.339554,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.276382,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":199,"cotraded_share":0.281407,"null_mean":0.185118,"null_p95":0.256784,"excess_p":0.01,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.276382,"excess_p_wo_top":0.02,"cotraded_car":0.01155,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.034428,0.057529],"cotraded_car_p":0.339554}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"71% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +0.75% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0075 [-0.0271, 0.0420], t_KP = 0.53; family minus self 0.0076 [-0.0135, 0.0345], p = 0.278.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.007472,"ci":[-0.027105,0.042049],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.297426,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":141,"family_share":0.708543,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.007472,"family_ci":[-0.027105,0.042049],"diff":0.007559,"diff_ci":[-0.013478,0.034495],"diff_p":0.278}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"3 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.89% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0289 [-0.1016, 0.1594], t_KP = 0.47, over 3 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +3.56% (win rate 67%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.028908,"ci":[-0.101609,0.159425],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.341215,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":3,"share_in_round_trips":0.030151,"priced":3,"realized_mean":0.035576,"realized_win_rate":0.666667,"opening_car":0.028908,"ci":[-0.101609,0.159425],"p":0.341215,"openings_priced":3}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2022-03-09","event_date":"2022-03-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.68,"trade":"25 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}