{"id":"P000034","trades":[{"date":"2019-02-04","filed":"2019-02-15","ticker":"MO","issuer":"Altria Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20011154-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20011154.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.002582},{"date":"2019-04-10","filed":"2019-04-18","ticker":"PM","issuer":"Philip Morris International Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20011466-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20011466.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.002349},{"date":"2020-09-25","filed":"2020-10-20","ticker":"EL","issuer":"Estee Lauder Companies, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017541-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017541.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.00183},{"date":"2020-09-25","filed":"2020-10-20","ticker":"GE","issuer":"General Electric Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017541-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017541.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.033356},{"date":"2020-09-25","filed":"2020-10-20","ticker":"GE","issuer":"General Electric Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017541-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017541.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.033356},{"date":"2020-09-25","filed":"2020-10-20","ticker":"TXN","issuer":"Texas Instruments Incorporated","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017541-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017541.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.003799},{"date":"2020-09-25","filed":"2020-10-20","ticker":"DIS","issuer":"Walt Disney Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017541-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017541.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.026307},{"date":"2021-08-11","filed":"2021-08-16","ticker":"CVX","issuer":"Chevron Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019319-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019319.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.036857},{"date":"2021-08-11","filed":"2021-08-16","ticker":"C","issuer":"Citigroup, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019319-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019319.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.036995},{"date":"2021-08-11","filed":"2021-08-16","ticker":"D","issuer":"Dominion Energy, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019319-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019319.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.021152},{"date":"2021-08-11","filed":"2021-08-16","ticker":"PM","issuer":"Philip Morris International Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019319-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019319.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.014759},{"date":"2021-08-11","filed":"2021-08-16","ticker":"PM","issuer":"Philip Morris International Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019319-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019319.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.014759}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"83% of 12 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.833, 90% Wilson [0.601, 0.943]. No firm-event calendar, so the event-linked size gap was not computed.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.833333,"ci":[0.600793,0.943219],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"lowest_band_share":0.833333,"lowest_band_ci":[0.600793,0.943219],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"9 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 5 and trading spans 61% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.202 (identified set [0.111, 0.488]); trade-count HHI 0.139 vs. 95th percentile 0.097 of 12 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.61 [0.49, 0.73]. Top three issuers (EL, TXN, PM) carry at least 24% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":4.940551,"ci":[2.051227,9],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"issuers":9,"hhi_mid":0.202407,"hhi_bounds":[0.111111,0.487513],"n_eff":4.940551,"hhi_count":0.138889,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.097222,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.605189,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.488805,0.7319],"top3_share_lower":0.239158,"top3":["EL","TXN","PM"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"50% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 0.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.3%).","detail":"Batch-day share 2/4, Wilson [0.18, 0.82]; index of dispersion 4.32 (chi-square p = 5.55e-268); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.000 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.063, p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.5,"ci":[0.1824,0.8176],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"trade_days":4,"batch_share_trades":0.833333,"batch_day_share":0.5,"batch_day_ci":[0.1824,0.8176],"dispersion_index":4.321664,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0,"proximity_null_mean":0.06346,"proximity_null_p95":0.175,"proximity_p":1,"proximity_nonroutine":0,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 12 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 4.01% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0401; 90% KP interval [-0.1190, 0.0388]; t_BMP = -1.83, r-bar = 0.151, t_KP = -1.03, Patell Z = -1.46, Corrado Z = -1.39. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.1030, 0.0089]. Calendar-time alpha -47.10%/yr (NW t = -1.84, 84 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.040103,"ci":[-0.119024,0.038817],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.967121,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.001924},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.103233},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"not_assessed","value":-0.007838},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.0089},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.470969}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"theta":-0.040103,"ci":[-0.119024,0.038817],"p":0.838085,"t_kp":-1.032893,"rbar":0.15134,"se_cs":0.0248,"se_kp":0.043945,"t_cs":-1.617072,"t_bmp":-1.830272,"patell_z":-1.456814,"corrado_z":-1.3859,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.102979,0.0089],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.001869,"se":0.001016,"days":84,"t":-1.84007,"p_one_sided":0.967121},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.003693,-0.000045],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":12,"theta":-0.001924,"ci":[-0.024277,0.020429],"p":0.594371,"t_kp":-0.244615,"rbar":0.15134,"se_cs":0.007024,"se_kp":0.012447,"t_cs":-0.273897,"t_bmp":-0.433455,"patell_z":-0.253347,"corrado_z":-0.213097},"21":{"n":12,"theta":-0.040103,"ci":[-0.119024,0.038817],"p":0.838085,"t_kp":-1.032893,"rbar":0.15134,"se_cs":0.0248,"se_kp":0.043945,"t_cs":-1.617072,"t_bmp":-1.830272,"patell_z":-1.456814,"corrado_z":-1.3859},"63":{"n":12,"theta":-0.103233,"ci":[-0.313641,0.107175],"p":0.748655,"t_kp":-0.692982,"rbar":0.15134,"se_cs":0.066118,"se_kp":0.117161,"t_cs":-1.561335,"t_bmp":-1.227954,"patell_z":-1.402583,"corrado_z":-1.386459}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":null,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,null],"rate_ratio_batchdays":null,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,null],"absence_days":0,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 12 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 10 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.184]; 90th percentile lag 25 days; longest 25 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.183981],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.183981],"median_lag":9.5,"p90_lag":25,"max_lag":25,"filings":4,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":12,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"29% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 28% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSIF; jurisdiction sectors Automobile Manufacturers, Communication Services, Energy, Health Care, Interactive Media & Services, Tobacco, Utilities. Dollar share 0.290 (identified set [0.046, 0.761], bootstrap 0.055-0.938); benchmarks S&P 500 0.275, congressional peers 0.274.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.014781,"ci":[-0.220529,0.662738],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"in_jurisdiction_trades":7,"share":0.290029,"share_bounds":[0.046097,0.760842],"share_ci":[0.054718,0.937986],"benchmark_sp500":0.275248,"benchmark_peers":0.273718,"excess":0.014781,"excess_ci":[-0.220529,0.662738],"committees":["HSIF"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Automobile Manufacturers","Communication Services","Energy","Health Care","Interactive Media & Services","Tobacco","Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 9 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 9 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"n_other":9,"events":2882}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2019-02-05 (permutation p = 0.040).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2019-02-05","changepoint_LR":8.488854,"changepoint_p":0.04,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.004566}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 7% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0401, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.040103,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.067164,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"None of the member's priced trades was followed within ten trading days by a large abnormal move.","detail":"None of the member's priced trades was followed within ten trading days by a large abnormal move.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"priced":12}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 14%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.167; circular-shift null mean 0.145, 95th pct 0.342, p = 0.540.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.166667,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.166667,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"cotraded_share":0.166667,"null_mean":0.144781,"null_p95":0.341667,"excess_p":0.54,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.166667,"excess_p_wo_top":0.53}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -4.01% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0401 [-0.1190, 0.0388], t_KP = -1.03.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.040103,"ci":[-0.119024,0.038817],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.838085,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.936795,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":12,"family_share":1,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.040103,"family_ci":[-0.119024,0.038817],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}