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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.86 (within-issuer permutation p = 0.104); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.058824,"ci":[0.03632,0.093911],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.104,"p_holm":0.832,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":187,"lowest_band_share":0.058824,"lowest_band_ci":[0.03632,0.093911],"share_over_50k":0.903743,"max_z":2.894944,"size_gap":0.857115,"size_gap_p":0.104,"event_linked":12,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"43 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 7 and trading spans 50% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.139 (identified set [0.062, 0.424]); trade-count HHI 0.064 vs. 95th percentile 0.009 of 187 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.50 [0.43, 0.59]. Top three issuers (AAPL, NVDA, AMZN) carry at least 21% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":7.195168,"ci":[2.355813,16.194255],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":187,"issuers":43,"hhi_mid":0.138982,"hhi_bounds":[0.06175,0.424482],"n_eff":7.195168,"hhi_count":0.0642,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.008951,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.504671,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.42649,0.593913],"top3_share_lower":0.21423,"top3":["AAPL","NVDA","AMZN"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"13% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 9% of trades look routine; 6.4% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.9%).","detail":"Batch-day share 13/101, Wilson [0.08, 0.19]; index of dispersion 2.87 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.09 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.064 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.059, p = 0.406.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.128713,"ci":[0.083449,0.19335],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.406,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.827081,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":187,"trade_days":101,"batch_share_trades":0.320856,"batch_day_share":0.128713,"batch_day_ci":[0.083449,0.19335],"dispersion_index":2.865582,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.085561,"proximity_share":0.064171,"proximity_null_mean":0.058523,"proximity_null_p95":0.101604,"proximity_p":0.406,"proximity_nonroutine":0.070175,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 156 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.00% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0100; 90% KP interval [-0.0810, 0.0609]; t_BMP = 0.46, r-bar = 0.162, t_KP = 0.08, Patell Z = 0.60, Corrado Z = 1.58. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0353, 0.0581]. Calendar-time alpha 2.83%/yr (NW t = 0.20, 1151 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.010019,"ci":[-0.080979,0.06094],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.466934,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001713},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.052184},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.011302},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.015788},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.058112},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.028328}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":156,"theta":-0.010019,"ci":[-0.080979,0.06094],"p":0.466934,"t_kp":0.083113,"rbar":0.162031,"se_cs":0.007682,"se_kp":0.042883,"t_cs":-1.304338,"t_bmp":0.46398,"patell_z":0.595454,"corrado_z":1.577595,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.035347,0.058112],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000112,"se":0.00055,"days":1151,"t":0.204277,"p_one_sided":0.419069},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000798,0.001023],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":156,"theta":0.001713,"ci":[-0.030296,0.033723],"p":0.414223,"t_kp":0.217061,"rbar":0.162031,"se_cs":0.003465,"se_kp":0.019344,"t_cs":0.494497,"t_bmp":1.211745,"patell_z":1.090102,"corrado_z":-0.192922},"21":{"n":156,"theta":-0.010019,"ci":[-0.080979,0.06094],"p":0.466934,"t_kp":0.083113,"rbar":0.162031,"se_cs":0.007682,"se_kp":0.042883,"t_cs":-1.304338,"t_bmp":0.46398,"patell_z":0.595454,"corrado_z":1.577595},"63":{"n":154,"theta":-0.052184,"ci":[-0.178807,0.074439],"p":0.631549,"t_kp":-0.33657,"rbar":0.162031,"se_cs":0.013792,"se_kp":0.076515,"t_cs":-3.783629,"t_bmp":-1.867209,"patell_z":-2.131241,"corrado_z":-1.700364}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 15 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 4 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.27, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.10, 0.51]; exact one-sided p = 0.982; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.975. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.266667,"ci":[0.096658,0.510752],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.982422,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":15,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.266667,"ci":[0.096658,0.510752],"p_exact":0.982422,"p_magnitude":0.9747,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2018-02-05","move":-0.041822,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-06","move":0.019702,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-08","move":-0.037509,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-10-10","move":-0.031663,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-24","move":-0.033166,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-25","move":-0.030302,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-27","move":-0.044912,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-02","move":0.043306,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-03","move":-0.028632,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-04","move":0.042033,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-05","move":-0.033242,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-01-28","move":0.024835,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-05-18","move":-0.040312,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":3,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-11-10","move":0.054954,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2026-06-05","move":-0.025809,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 2.96 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 2.96 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":2.959436,"ci":[1.452371,5.435979],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":2.959436,"rate_ratio_ci":[1.452371,5.435979],"rate_ratio_batchdays":2.027063,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0.543696,5.367346],"absence_days":46,"trades_in_absence":8}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 of 184 trades (0.5%) were disclosed late; median lag 24 days.","detail":"Late share 0.005, Wilson [0.001, 0.024]; 90th percentile lag 35 days; longest 141 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.005435,"ci":[0.001213,0.02399],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":184,"amendment_rows_excluded":27,"late":1,"late_from_trade":1,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.005435,"late_ci":[0.001213,0.02399],"median_lag":24,"p90_lag":35,"max_lag":141,"filings":59,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":4,"timely_priced":152,"late_priced_dates":3}},{"id":"T8","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No committee assignments on record for this member.","detail":"No committee assignments on record for this member.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No legislative events tied to this member's committees.","detail":"No legislative events tied to this member's committees.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2021-07-07, trading ran at 1.25 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2021-07-07, trading ran at 1.25 times its earlier rate. Change point 2014-12-31 (p = 0.006).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":1.247196,"ci":[0.969643,1.60331],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Bloomberg: Pelosi's husband locked in $5.3 million from Alphabet options","url":"https://bangordailynews.com/2021/07/08/national-politics/nancy-pelosis-husband-locked-in-5-3-million-from-alphabet-options/"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2014-12-31","changepoint_LR":14.26009,"changepoint_p":0.006,"tradeday_rate_before":0.138889,"tradeday_rate_after":0.030132,"scrutiny_date":"2021-07-07","rate_ratio":1.247196,"rate_ratio_ci":[0.969643,1.60331]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 26% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0100, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.010019,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.261194,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"30 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 20 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.67, Clopper-Pearson [0.50, 0.81], exact one-sided p = 0.049; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.666667,"ci":[0.500561,0.806692],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.049369,"p_holm":0.444317,"q_bh":0.721154,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":30,"hits":20,"hit_rate":0.666667,"ci":[0.500561,0.806692],"priced":156,"share_followed":0.192308}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"32% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 27%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.321; circular-shift null mean 0.269, 95th pct 0.348, p = 0.180. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0196, p = 0.269.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.320856,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.269241,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.304813,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":187,"cotraded_share":0.320856,"null_mean":0.269432,"null_p95":0.348128,"excess_p":0.18,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.304813,"excess_p_wo_top":0.15,"cotraded_car":0.019584,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.049813,0.088982],"cotraded_car_p":0.269241}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"91% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -1.18% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0118 [-0.0848, 0.0612], t_KP = 0.05; family minus self -0.0276 [-0.0501, -0.0065], p = 0.974.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.011787,"ci":[-0.084804,0.06123],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.478398,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":170,"family_share":0.909091,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.011787,"family_ci":[-0.084804,0.06123],"diff":-0.027575,"diff_ci":[-0.050136,-0.00651],"diff_p":0.974}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +1.03% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0103 [-0.0554, 0.0760], t_KP = 0.38, over 16 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +1.18% (win rate 57%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.010308,"ci":[-0.055352,0.075967],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.35366,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":17,"share_in_round_trips":0.181818,"priced":14,"realized_mean":0.011784,"realized_win_rate":0.571429,"opening_car":0.010308,"ci":[-0.055352,0.075967],"p":0.35366,"openings_priced":16}},{"id":"T16","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"55 option trades (26% of all reported trades); the underlying moved -2.55% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"55 option trades (26% of all reported trades); the underlying moved -2.55% in the trade's favour over a month.","estimate":{"label":"Option-trade signed CAR","value":-0.025455,"ci":[-0.1045,0.053589],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.555845,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.714658,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":55,"option_share":0.260664,"option_car":-0.025455,"option_ci":[-0.1045,0.053589],"option_p":0.555845,"priced":54}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2018-02-05","event_date":"2018-02-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.18,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-02-06","event_date":"2018-02-06","direction":"buy","move_pct":1.97,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-02-08","event_date":"2018-02-08","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.75,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-10-10","event_date":"2018-10-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.17,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-24","event_date":"2020-02-24","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.32,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-25","event_date":"2020-02-25","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.03,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-27","event_date":"2020-02-27","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.49,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-02","event_date":"2020-03-02","direction":"buy","move_pct":4.33,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-03","event_date":"2020-03-03","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.86,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-04","event_date":"2020-03-04","direction":"buy","move_pct":4.2,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-05","event_date":"2020-03-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.32,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-01-28","event_date":"2022-01-28","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.48,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-05-18","event_date":"2022-05-18","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.03,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-11-10","event_date":"2022-11-10","direction":"sell","move_pct":5.5,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2026-06-05","event_date":"2026-06-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.58,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}