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Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20240523-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.080643},{"date":"2024-05-14","filed":"2024-05-23","ticker":"IFF","issuer":"IFF","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20240523-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001072},{"date":"2024-05-14","filed":"2024-05-23","ticker":"SOLV","issuer":"SOLV","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20240523-003","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-05-14","filed":"2024-05-23","ticker":"SLB","issuer":"SLB","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20240523-004","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.018894},{"date":"2024-07-17","filed":"2024-08-05","ticker":"OTIS","issuer":"OTIS","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20240805-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.0502},{"date":"2024-10-17","filed":"2024-11-14","ticker":"IVZ","issuer":"IVZ","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20241114-003","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.028057},{"date":"2024-10-31","filed":"2024-11-14","ticker":"LW","issuer":"LW","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20241114-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.007854},{"date":"2024-10-31","filed":"2024-11-14","ticker":"LEG","issuer":"LEG","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20241114-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2025-07-10","filed":"2025-11-24","ticker":"OGN","issuer":"OGN","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20251124-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2025-11-14","filed":"2025-12-04","ticker":"CAG","issuer":"CAG","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20251204-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.028152},{"date":"2025-12-12","filed":"2026-01-07","ticker":"INTC","issuer":"INTC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20260107-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.042667},{"date":"2025-12-12","filed":"2026-01-07","ticker":"VZ","issuer":"VZ","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20260107-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.026389},{"date":"2026-01-12","filed":"2026-01-20","ticker":"WPC","issuer":"WPC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20260120-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.048572},{"date":"2026-01-12","filed":"2026-01-20","ticker":"SWK","issuer":"SWK","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20260120-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2026-04-23","filed":"2026-05-11","ticker":"CTVA","issuer":"CTVA","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20260511-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.007308},{"date":"2026-05-21","filed":"2026-06-11","ticker":"KHC","issuer":"KHC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20260611-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.019558},{"date":"2026-06-29","filed":"2026-07-02","ticker":"T","issuer":"T","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20260702-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.029398},{"date":"2026-07-23","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"O","issuer":"O","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"SQP000595-20260807-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.006956}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"90% of 87 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.897, 90% Wilson [0.830, 0.939]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.896552,"ci":[0.830367,0.938816],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":87,"lowest_band_share":0.896552,"lowest_band_ci":[0.830367,0.938816],"share_over_50k":0.011494,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":5,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"59 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 21 and trading spans 87% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.048 (identified set [0.019, 0.188]); trade-count HHI 0.021 vs. 95th percentile 0.016 of 87 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.87 [0.82, 0.96]. Top three issuers (NUE, O, WPC) carry at least 7% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":21.02749,"ci":[5.305849,54.032525],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":87,"issuers":59,"hhi_mid":0.047557,"hhi_bounds":[0.018507,0.188471],"n_eff":21.02749,"hhi_count":0.021007,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.01625,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.867885,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.816132,0.960841],"top3_share_lower":0.06921,"top3":["NUE","O","WPC"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"11% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 5.7% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.6%).","detail":"Batch-day share 6/57, Wilson [0.06, 0.19]; index of dispersion 1.94 (chi-square p = 5.93e-200); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.057 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.046, p = 0.352.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.105263,"ci":[0.055417,0.190884],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.352,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.7744,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":87,"trade_days":57,"batch_share_trades":0.241379,"batch_day_share":0.105263,"batch_day_ci":[0.055417,0.190884],"dispersion_index":1.939576,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.057471,"proximity_null_mean":0.045562,"proximity_null_p95":0.091954,"proximity_p":0.352,"proximity_nonroutine":0.057471,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 62 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.67% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0067; 90% KP interval [-0.0314, 0.0447]; t_BMP = 0.75, r-bar = 0.089, t_KP = 0.28, Patell Z = 0.80, Corrado Z = 1.35. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0377, 0.0674]. Calendar-time alpha 1.77%/yr (NW t = 0.14, 826 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.006662,"ci":[-0.031377,0.0447],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.444118,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001899},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.001011},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.009395},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000259},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.067365},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.017702}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":62,"theta":0.006662,"ci":[-0.031377,0.0447],"p":0.389155,"t_kp":0.282772,"rbar":0.088622,"se_cs":0.00859,"se_kp":0.022775,"t_cs":0.775511,"t_bmp":0.749685,"patell_z":0.795021,"corrado_z":1.353582,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.037719,0.067365],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.00007,"se":0.0005,"days":826,"t":0.140536,"p_one_sided":0.444118},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000765,0.000905],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":63,"theta":0.001899,"ci":[-0.016836,0.020633],"p":0.457299,"t_kp":0.107678,"rbar":0.088622,"se_cs":0.004203,"se_kp":0.011219,"t_cs":0.451736,"t_bmp":0.287445,"patell_z":0.29823,"corrado_z":0.173096},"21":{"n":62,"theta":0.006662,"ci":[-0.031377,0.0447],"p":0.389155,"t_kp":0.282772,"rbar":0.088622,"se_cs":0.00859,"se_kp":0.022775,"t_cs":0.775511,"t_bmp":0.749685,"patell_z":0.795021,"corrado_z":1.353582},"63":{"n":62,"theta":-0.001011,"ci":[-0.055418,0.053396],"p":0.617223,"t_kp":-0.29953,"rbar":0.088622,"se_cs":0.012287,"se_kp":0.032575,"t_cs":-0.082302,"t_bmp":-0.794116,"patell_z":-0.648702,"corrado_z":0.181513}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 2 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.03, 0.97]; exact one-sided p = 0.750; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.747. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.025321,0.974679],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.75,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":2,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.025321,0.974679],"p_exact":0.75,"p_magnitude":0.7467,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2024-07-24","move":-0.022662,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-11-06","move":0.024866,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"4 of 201 trades (2.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 20 days.","detail":"Late share 0.020, Wilson [0.009, 0.044]; 90th percentile lag 29 days; longest 262 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.0199,"ci":[0.008965,0.043589],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":201,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":4,"late_from_trade":4,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.0199,"late_ci":[0.008965,0.043589],"median_lag":20,"p90_lag":29,"max_lag":262,"filings":88,"late_filings":3,"late_priced":1,"timely_priced":61,"late_priced_dates":1}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"16% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 23% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SSAP, SSAS, SSCM, SSGA; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Air Freight & Logistics, Automobile Manufacturers, Cargo Ground Transportation, Communication Services, IT Consulting & Other Services, Interactive Media & Services, Passenger Airlines, Rail Transportation, Semiconductors, Systems Software. Dollar share 0.155 (identified set [0.025, 0.557], bootstrap 0.058-0.297); benchmarks S&P 500 0.152, congressional peers 0.234.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.078911,"ci":[-0.176337,0.062919],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":63,"in_jurisdiction_trades":13,"share":0.155373,"share_bounds":[0.025198,0.556833],"share_ci":[0.057946,0.297203],"benchmark_sp500":0.152475,"benchmark_peers":0.234284,"excess":-0.078911,"excess_ci":[-0.176337,0.062919],"committees":["SSAP","SSAS","SSCM","SSGA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Air Freight & Logistics","Automobile Manufacturers","Cargo Ground Transportation","Communication Services","IT Consulting & Other Services","Interactive Media & Services","Passenger Airlines","Rail Transportation","Semiconductors","Systems Software"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"13 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +2.20% in the trade's favour, +1.94% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = 0.0220; pre-event minus other trades = 0.0194 [-0.0336, 0.0558], p = 0.228; mean pre-trade drift psi = 0.0058.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":0.019382,"ci":[-0.033621,0.055785],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.228,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.715333,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.019382},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.019382},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.011843},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":13,"n_other":49,"theta9":0.02198,"diff":0.019382,"ci":[-0.033621,0.055785],"p":0.228,"pre_trade_drift":0.005826,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":6031,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":2469,"committee_markup":1503,"committee_reported":1441,"became_law":618},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.206349,"trade_dates":10,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2014-01-13 (permutation p = 0.344).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2014-01-13","changepoint_LR":6.17821,"changepoint_p":0.344,"tradeday_rate_before":0.2,"tradeday_rate_after":0.016825}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 76% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0067, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.006662,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.761194,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"10 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 4 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.40, Clopper-Pearson [0.15, 0.70], exact one-sided p = 0.828; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.4,"ci":[0.150028,0.696463],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.828125,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":10,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.4,"ci":[0.150028,0.696463],"priced":63,"share_followed":0.15873}},{"id":"T13","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"15% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 7%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.149; circular-shift null mean 0.066, 95th pct 0.115, p = 0.020. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0050, p = 0.571.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.149425,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.571346,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.149425,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":87,"cotraded_share":0.149425,"null_mean":0.065831,"null_p95":0.114943,"excess_p":0.02,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.149425,"excess_p_wo_top":0.03,"cotraded_car":-0.004967,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.046594,0.036659],"cotraded_car_p":0.571346}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","detail":"2% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":1,"family_share":0.018519,"owner_unknown":33}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2024-07-24","event_date":"2024-07-24","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.27,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-11-06","event_date":"2024-11-06","direction":"sell","move_pct":2.49,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}