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Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-006","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.008378},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-007","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.000753},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"ISRG","issuer":"Intuitive Surgical, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-008","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.01153},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"INTC","issuer":"Intel Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-009","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.010653},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"IQV","issuer":"IQVIA Holdings Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-010","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.006692},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"HOLX","issuer":"Hologic, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-011","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"FDX","issuer":"FedEx Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-012","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.021959},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"DHR","issuer":"Danaher Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-013","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.00989},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"COST","issuer":"Costco Wholesale Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-014","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.000653},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"CELG","issuer":"Celgene Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-015","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"CVS","issuer":"CVS Health Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-016","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.086955},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-017","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.016503},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"ADI","issuer":"Analog Devices, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-018","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.002619},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"XLNX","issuer":"Xilinx, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-019","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"TMO","issuer":"Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-020","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.022666},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"SYK","issuer":"Stryker Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-021","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.003765},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"IQV","issuer":"IQVIA Holdings Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-022","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.006692},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"FDX","issuer":"FedEx Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-023","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.021959},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-024","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.016503},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-03-18","ticker":"ADI","issuer":"Analog Devices, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"Sc68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6-025","source":"senate_stock_watcher","source_url":"https://efdsearch.senate.gov/search/view/ptr/c68d808d-acc5-4e4b-8d16-6f14a7c255b6/","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.002619}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"98% of 213 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.981, 90% Wilson [0.959, 0.992]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.981221,"ci":[0.958828,0.991542],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":213,"lowest_band_share":0.981221,"lowest_band_ci":[0.958828,0.991542],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":7,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"58 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 38 and trading spans 62% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.026 (identified set [0.017, 0.165]); trade-count HHI 0.024 vs. 95th percentile 0.008 of 213 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.62 [0.56, 0.68]. Top three issuers (AAPL, QCOM, XLNX) carry at least 2% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":38.017148,"ci":[6.065941,57.832331],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":213,"issuers":58,"hhi_mid":0.026304,"hhi_bounds":[0.017291,0.164855],"n_eff":38.017148,"hhi_count":0.024312,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.008442,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.616977,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.55531,0.675777],"top3_share_lower":0.01862,"top3":["AAPL","QCOM","XLNX"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"29% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 8% of trades look routine; 3.3% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.2%).","detail":"Batch-day share 16/55, Wilson [0.20, 0.40]; index of dispersion 10.17 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.08 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.033 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.042, p = 0.716.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.290909,"ci":[0.201881,0.399544],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.716,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":213,"trade_days":55,"batch_share_trades":0.690141,"batch_day_share":0.290909,"batch_day_ci":[0.201881,0.399544],"dispersion_index":10.169111,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.084507,"proximity_share":0.032864,"proximity_null_mean":0.041887,"proximity_null_p95":0.070423,"proximity_p":0.716,"proximity_nonroutine":0.035897,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 134 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.45% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0045; 90% KP interval [-0.0171, 0.0260]; t_BMP = 1.18, r-bar = 0.048, t_KP = 0.42, Patell Z = 1.15, Corrado Z = 0.30. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0479, 0.0563]. Calendar-time alpha 24.44%/yr (NW t = 1.61, 546 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.004471,"ci":[-0.017073,0.026015],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.336871,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.003537},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.004122},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.007764},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.004471},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.056341},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.244409}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":134,"theta":0.004471,"ci":[-0.017073,0.026015],"p":0.336871,"t_kp":0.42195,"rbar":0.048287,"se_cs":0.004658,"se_kp":0.013007,"t_cs":0.959964,"t_bmp":1.178343,"patell_z":1.14507,"corrado_z":0.295933,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.047863,0.056341],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.00097,"se":0.000602,"days":546,"t":1.61192,"p_one_sided":0.05349},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000027,0.001967],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":134,"theta":0.003537,"ci":[-0.008825,0.015899],"p":0.32167,"t_kp":0.464093,"rbar":0.048287,"se_cs":0.002672,"se_kp":0.007463,"t_cs":1.323556,"t_bmp":1.296032,"patell_z":1.489183,"corrado_z":0.303669},"21":{"n":134,"theta":0.004471,"ci":[-0.017073,0.026015],"p":0.336871,"t_kp":0.42195,"rbar":0.048287,"se_cs":0.004658,"se_kp":0.013007,"t_cs":0.959964,"t_bmp":1.178343,"patell_z":1.14507,"corrado_z":0.295933},"63":{"n":134,"theta":-0.004122,"ci":[-0.051692,0.043448],"p":0.474454,"t_kp":0.0642,"rbar":0.048287,"se_cs":0.010284,"se_kp":0.028719,"t_cs":-0.400806,"t_bmp":0.179286,"patell_z":0.194564,"corrado_z":-0.581952}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 0 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.00, 0.95]; exact one-sided p = 1.000; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 1.000. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"p_exact":1,"p_magnitude":1,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2014-07-31","move":-0.019748,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":6,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2 of 240 trades (0.8%) were disclosed late; median lag 10 days.","detail":"Late share 0.008, Wilson [0.003, 0.025]; 90th percentile lag 18 days; longest 245 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.008333,"ci":[0.002762,0.024867],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":240,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":2,"late_from_trade":2,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.008333,"late_ci":[0.002762,0.024867],"median_lag":10,"p90_lag":18.1,"max_lag":245,"filings":62,"late_filings":2,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":134,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"10% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 30% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SLIN, SSAP, SSAS, SSBK; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Financials, Real Estate, Systems Software. Dollar share 0.102 (identified set [0.008, 0.590], bootstrap 0.041-0.177); benchmarks S&P 500 0.251, congressional peers 0.295.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.193421,"ci":[-0.254181,-0.118183],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":129,"in_jurisdiction_trades":15,"share":0.1019,"share_bounds":[0.008205,0.590375],"share_ci":[0.041141,0.177138],"benchmark_sp500":0.251485,"benchmark_peers":0.295321,"excess":-0.193421,"excess_ci":[-0.254181,-0.118183],"committees":["SLIN","SSAP","SSAS","SSBK"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Financials","Real Estate","Systems Software"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"7 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 127 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"7 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 127 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":7,"n_other":127,"events":819}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2018-01-17 (permutation p = 0.456).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2018-01-17","changepoint_LR":4.819543,"changepoint_p":0.456,"tradeday_rate_before":0.048134,"tradeday_rate_after":0.020548}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 70% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0045, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.004471,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.701493,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"13 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 5 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.38, Clopper-Pearson [0.17, 0.65], exact one-sided p = 0.867; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.384615,"ci":[0.165659,0.645201],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.866577,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":13,"hits":5,"hit_rate":0.384615,"ci":[0.165659,0.645201],"priced":135,"share_followed":0.096296}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"8% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 7%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.080; circular-shift null mean 0.072, 95th pct 0.113, p = 0.390. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0191, p = 0.961.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.079812,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.961276,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.971009,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.070423,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":213,"cotraded_share":0.079812,"null_mean":0.072225,"null_p95":0.113146,"excess_p":0.39,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.070423,"excess_p_wo_top":0.17,"cotraded_car":-0.019148,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.042148,0.003852],"cotraded_car_p":0.961276}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.89% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0289 [-0.0433, 0.1011], t_KP = 1.08, over 3 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +3.09% (win rate 100%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.028862,"ci":[-0.043332,0.101056],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.196754,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":7,"share_in_round_trips":0.065728,"priced":3,"realized_mean":0.0309,"realized_win_rate":1,"opening_car":0.028862,"ci":[-0.043332,0.101056],"p":0.196754,"openings_priced":3}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2014-07-31","event_date":"2014-07-31","direction":"buy","move_pct":-1.97,"trade":"6 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}