{"id":"R000305","trades":[{"date":"2021-01-04","filed":"2021-01-24","ticker":"XLB","issuer":"Materials Select Sector SPDR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20018072-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018072.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.036349},{"date":"2021-01-04","filed":"2021-01-24","ticker":"ORCL","issuer":"Oracle Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018072-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018072.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.032242},{"date":"2021-01-04","filed":"2021-01-24","ticker":"SPY","issuer":"SPDR S&P 500","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20018072-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018072.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0},{"date":"2021-01-04","filed":"2021-01-24","ticker":"XLF","issuer":"SPDR Select Sector Fund - Financial","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20018072-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018072.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.037537},{"date":"2021-04-01","filed":"2021-04-30","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018659-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018659.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009306},{"date":"2021-04-27","filed":"2021-04-30","ticker":"AMD","issuer":"Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018659-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018659.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.075859},{"date":"2021-04-27","filed":"2021-04-30","ticker":"GOOGL","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018659-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018659.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.010043},{"date":"2021-04-27","filed":"2021-04-30","ticker":"AMAT","issuer":"Applied Materials, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018659-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018659.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.061012},{"date":"2021-04-27","filed":"2021-04-30","ticker":"CLF","issuer":"Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018659-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018659.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.08463},{"date":"2021-04-27","filed":"2021-04-30","ticker":"CRWD","issuer":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. - Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018659-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018659.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.128236},{"date":"2021-04-27","filed":"2021-04-30","ticker":"FCX","issuer":"Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018659-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018659.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001347},{"date":"2021-04-27","filed":"2021-04-30","ticker":"LRCX","issuer":"Lam Research Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018659-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018659.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.059001},{"date":"2021-12-09","filed":"2022-01-08","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020182-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.028265},{"date":"2021-12-28","filed":"2022-01-08","ticker":"ALB","issuer":"Albemarle Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020182-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.031316},{"date":"2021-12-28","filed":"2022-01-08","ticker":"DIS","issuer":"Walt Disney Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020182-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009173},{"date":"2021-12-30","filed":"2022-01-08","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"option","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020182-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.006263},{"date":"2021-12-30","filed":"2022-01-08","ticker":"GM","issuer":"General Motors Company","asset_type":"option","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020182-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.099886},{"date":"2021-12-30","filed":"2022-01-08","ticker":"FB","issuer":"Meta Platforms, Inc. - Class A","asset_type":"option","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020182-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-12-30","filed":"2022-01-08","ticker":"NEO","issuer":"Neogenomics, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020182-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.116142},{"date":"2021-12-31","filed":"2022-01-08","ticker":"IS","issuer":"ironSource Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020182-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-01-04","filed":"2022-01-08","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020182-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.02928},{"date":"2022-01-21","filed":"2022-02-19","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020492-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020492.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.02761},{"date":"2022-01-27","filed":"2022-02-19","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020492-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020492.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.037405},{"date":"2022-11-07","filed":"2023-05-14","ticker":"U","issuer":"Unity Software Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"exchange","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20022808-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022808.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2023-01-30","filed":"2023-02-13","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022421-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022421.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.029296},{"date":"2023-02-01","filed":"2023-02-13","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022421-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022421.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.056279},{"date":"2023-04-10","filed":"2023-04-14","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022738-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022738.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.01479},{"date":"2024-04-17","filed":"2024-05-05","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024986-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024986.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.020261}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"41% of 27 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.407, 90% Wilson [0.267, 0.564]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.407407,"ci":[0.267315,0.564367],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":27,"lowest_band_share":0.407407,"lowest_band_ci":[0.267315,0.564367],"share_over_50k":0.037037,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":4,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"20 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 16 and trading spans 59% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.063 (identified set [0.053, 0.138]); trade-count HHI 0.114 vs. 95th percentile 0.045 of 27 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.59 [0.54, 0.70]. Top three issuers (SPY, AAPL, AMD) carry at least 9% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":15.919697,"ci":[7.225748,18.84249],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":27,"issuers":20,"hhi_mid":0.062815,"hhi_bounds":[0.053072,0.138394],"n_eff":15.919697,"hhi_count":0.113855,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.045267,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.587691,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.535631,0.697618],"top3_share_lower":0.089389,"top3":["SPY","AAPL","AMD"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"21% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 14.8% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.5%).","detail":"Batch-day share 3/14, Wilson [0.09, 0.43]; index of dispersion 3.49 (chi-square p = 9.18e-234); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.148 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.055, p = 0.056.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.214286,"ci":[0.089068,0.432049],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.056,"p_holm":0.392,"q_bh":0.381333,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":27,"trade_days":14,"batch_share_trades":0.555556,"batch_day_share":0.214286,"batch_day_ci":[0.089068,0.432049],"dispersion_index":3.491119,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.148148,"proximity_null_mean":0.054628,"proximity_null_p95":0.148148,"proximity_p":0.056,"proximity_nonroutine":0.148148,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 25 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.98% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0198; 90% KP interval [-0.0630, 0.0233]; t_BMP = -0.23, r-bar = 0.085, t_KP = -0.12, Patell Z = -0.19, Corrado Z = 0.17. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0615, 0.0028]. Calendar-time alpha -25.21%/yr (NW t = -0.82, 178 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.019836,"ci":[-0.063007,0.023334],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.794201,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.005694},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.06849},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.010783},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":0.007239},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"does_not_fit","value":0.002756},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.25212}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"theta":-0.019836,"ci":[-0.063007,0.023334],"p":0.549061,"t_kp":-0.124599,"rbar":0.085053,"se_cs":0.01384,"se_kp":0.025233,"t_cs":-1.433263,"t_bmp":-0.227167,"patell_z":-0.186067,"corrado_z":0.171535,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.061467,0.002756],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.001,"se":0.001218,"days":178,"t":-0.821085,"p_one_sided":0.794201},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.003085,0.001084],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":25,"theta":-0.005694,"ci":[-0.040043,0.028654],"p":0.460508,"t_kp":0.100202,"rbar":0.085053,"se_cs":0.011012,"se_kp":0.020077,"t_cs":-0.517093,"t_bmp":0.182686,"patell_z":0.228265,"corrado_z":-0.30583},"21":{"n":25,"theta":-0.019836,"ci":[-0.063007,0.023334],"p":0.549061,"t_kp":-0.124599,"rbar":0.085053,"se_cs":0.01384,"se_kp":0.025233,"t_cs":-1.433263,"t_bmp":-0.227167,"patell_z":-0.186067,"corrado_z":0.171535},"63":{"n":25,"theta":-0.06849,"ci":[-0.185577,0.048598],"p":0.685879,"t_kp":-0.490491,"rbar":0.085053,"se_cs":0.037537,"se_kp":0.068437,"t_cs":-1.824591,"t_bmp":-0.894254,"patell_z":-0.972366,"corrado_z":-0.012724}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 0 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.00, 0.95]; exact one-sided p = 1.000; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 1.000. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"p_exact":1,"p_magnitude":1,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2022-01-28","move":0.024835,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,9.035368],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,9.035368],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,18.372121],"absence_days":11,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 of 28 trades (3.6%) were disclosed late; median lag 10 days.","detail":"Late share 0.036, Wilson [0.008, 0.145]; 90th percentile lag 29 days; longest 188 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.035714,"ci":[0.008008,0.145239],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":28,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":1,"late_from_trade":1,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.035714,"late_ci":[0.008008,0.145239],"median_lag":10,"p90_lag":29,"max_lag":188,"filings":8,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":25,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"23% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 17% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSJU, HSSO, HSSY; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Biotechnology, Broadline Retail, Interactive Media & Services, Pharmaceuticals, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors. Dollar share 0.234 (identified set [0.073, 0.534], bootstrap 0.000-0.476); benchmarks S&P 500 0.107, congressional peers 0.171.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.063566,"ci":[-0.170614,0.304887],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":22,"in_jurisdiction_trades":4,"share":0.234179,"share_bounds":[0.072906,0.533949],"share_ci":[0,0.475501],"benchmark_sp500":0.106931,"benchmark_peers":0.170614,"excess":0.063566,"excess_ci":[-0.170614,0.304887],"committees":["HSJU","HSSO","HSSY"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Biotechnology","Broadline Retail","Interactive Media & Services","Pharmaceuticals","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"4 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 21 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"4 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 21 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":4,"n_other":21,"events":2813}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"documentary","summary":"Scrutiny on 2024-09-30 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","detail":"Scrutiny on 2024-09-30 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Raw Story: members of the 118th Congress who violated the STOCK Act","url":"https://www.rawstory.com/congress-stock/"}],"stats":{"scrutiny_date":"2024-09-30","changepoint":"2022-01-28","changepoint_LR":8.862711,"changepoint_p":0.076,"tradeday_rate_before":0.035842,"tradeday_rate_after":0.006908}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 13% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0198, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.019836,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.126866,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 4 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.80, Clopper-Pearson [0.34, 0.99], exact one-sided p = 0.188; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.8,"ci":[0.342592,0.989794],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.1875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":5,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.8,"ci":[0.342592,0.989794],"priced":25,"share_followed":0.2}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"30% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 33%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.296; circular-shift null mean 0.328, 95th pct 0.444, p = 0.780. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0096, p = 0.312.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.296296,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.311758,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.296296,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":27,"cotraded_share":0.296296,"null_mean":0.328096,"null_p95":0.444444,"excess_p":0.78,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.296296,"excess_p_wo_top":0.64,"cotraded_car":0.009618,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.034526,0.053762],"cotraded_car_p":0.311758}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"70% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -3.26% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0326 [-0.0836, 0.0185], t_KP = -0.50; family minus self -0.0398 [-0.0809, -0.0064], p = 0.954.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.032578,"ci":[-0.083608,0.018453],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.688197,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.928388,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":19,"family_share":0.703704,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.032578,"family_ci":[-0.083608,0.018453],"diff":-0.039816,"diff_ci":[-0.080928,-0.006397],"diff_p":0.953908}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3 option trades (11% of all reported trades).","detail":"3 option trades (11% of all reported trades).","estimate":{"label":"Option share","value":0.107143,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":3,"option_share":0.107143}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2022-01-28","event_date":"2022-01-28","direction":"sell","move_pct":2.48,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}