{"id":"R000599","trades":[{"date":"2015-01-02","filed":"2015-01-23","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20002432-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20002432.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.021583},{"date":"2015-01-02","filed":"2015-01-23","ticker":"V","issuer":"Visa Inc.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20002432-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20002432.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009243},{"date":"2016-02-01","filed":"2017-05-12","ticker":"PCP","issuer":"Precision Castparts Corporation","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20003127-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20003127.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2017-07-05","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20007694-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20007694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001572},{"date":"2017-07-05","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":"ADP","issuer":"Automatic Data Processing, Inc.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20007694-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20007694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.018406},{"date":"2017-07-05","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20007694-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20007694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.016547},{"date":"2017-07-05","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":"CDK","issuer":"CDK Global, Inc.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20007694-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20007694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2017-07-05","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":"KO","issuer":"Coca-Cola Company","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20007694-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20007694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.008079},{"date":"2017-07-05","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":"SLV","issuer":"iShares Silver Trust","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20007694-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20007694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.005564},{"date":"2017-07-05","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20007694-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20007694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.020632},{"date":"2017-07-05","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":"OUNZ","issuer":"VanEck Merk Gold Trust","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20007694-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20007694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.002052},{"date":"2017-07-05","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":"V","issuer":"Visa Inc.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20007694-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20007694.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.015536}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"17% of 12 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.167, 90% Wilson [0.057, 0.399]. No firm-event calendar, so the event-linked size gap was not computed.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.166667,"ci":[0.056781,0.399207],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"lowest_band_share":0.166667,"lowest_band_ci":[0.056781,0.399207],"share_over_50k":0.416667,"max_z":0.674491}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"10 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 7 and trading spans 49% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.147 (identified set [0.113, 0.215]); trade-count HHI 0.111 vs. 95th percentile 0.097 of 12 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.006). Normalized sector entropy 0.49 [0.28, 0.53]. Top three issuers (AAPL, V, ADP) carry at least 32% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":6.796192,"ci":[4.64515,8.859722],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"issuers":10,"hhi_mid":0.147141,"hhi_bounds":[0.11287,0.215278],"n_eff":6.796192,"hhi_count":0.111111,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.097222,"peer_benchmark_p":0.006,"sector_entropy":0.49341,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.281899,0.533031],"top3_share_lower":0.321435,"top3":["AAPL","V","ADP"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"33% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 0.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.8%).","detail":"Batch-day share 1/3, Wilson [0.08, 0.75]; index of dispersion 7.16 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.000 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.048, p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.333333,"ci":[0.078266,0.746466],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"trade_days":3,"batch_share_trades":0.75,"batch_day_share":0.333333,"batch_day_ci":[0.078266,0.746466],"dispersion_index":7.159265,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0,"proximity_null_mean":0.048263,"proximity_null_p95":0.25,"proximity_p":1,"proximity_nonroutine":0,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 10 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.33% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0233; 90% KP interval [-0.0446, -0.0020]; t_BMP = -2.11, r-bar = 0.022, t_KP = -1.91, Patell Z = -1.65, Corrado Z = -0.91. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0365, -0.0168].","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.023307,"ci":[-0.044573,-0.00204],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.955805,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000039},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.009818},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"not_assessed","value":-0.021093},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.023307},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.016839}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":10,"theta":-0.023307,"ci":[-0.044573,-0.00204],"p":0.955805,"t_kp":-1.910506,"rbar":0.021683,"se_cs":0.010496,"se_kp":0.011601,"t_cs":-2.220484,"t_bmp":-2.111634,"patell_z":-1.646926,"corrado_z":-0.912039,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.036452,-0.016839],"calendar_time":null,"calendar_alpha_ci":[null,null],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":10,"theta":-0.000039,"ci":[-0.009431,0.009352],"p":0.441784,"t_kp":0.150658,"rbar":0.021683,"se_cs":0.004635,"se_kp":0.005123,"t_cs":-0.008484,"t_bmp":0.166519,"patell_z":0.136927,"corrado_z":-0.36505},"21":{"n":10,"theta":-0.023307,"ci":[-0.044573,-0.00204],"p":0.955805,"t_kp":-1.910506,"rbar":0.021683,"se_cs":0.010496,"se_kp":0.011601,"t_cs":-2.220484,"t_bmp":-2.111634,"patell_z":-1.646926,"corrado_z":-0.912039},"63":{"n":10,"theta":-0.009818,"ci":[-0.042324,0.022688],"p":0.700184,"t_kp":-0.544038,"rbar":0.021683,"se_cs":0.016044,"se_kp":0.017733,"t_cs":-0.611965,"t_bmp":-0.601311,"patell_z":-0.366423,"corrado_z":-0.348572}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,7.77965],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,7.77965],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,47.034675],"absence_days":23,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 12 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 27 days. Another 1 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.184]; 90th percentile lag 27 days; longest 466 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.183981],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.083333,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":1,"excused_by_notification":1,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.183981],"median_lag":27,"p90_lag":27,"max_lag":466,"filings":3,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":10,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 28% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSIF; jurisdiction sectors Automobile Manufacturers, Communication Services, Energy, Health Care, Interactive Media & Services, Tobacco, Utilities. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap nan-nan); benchmarks S&P 500 0.275, congressional peers 0.274.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.275248,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":10,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[null,null],"benchmark_sp500":0.275248,"benchmark_peers":0.273718,"excess":-0.275248,"excess_ci":[null,null],"committees":["HSIF"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Automobile Manufacturers","Communication Services","Energy","Health Care","Interactive Media & Services","Tobacco","Utilities"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 10 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 10 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":10,"events":2882}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2015-01-05 (permutation p = 0.042).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2015-01-05","changepoint_LR":9.153251,"changepoint_p":0.042,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.003063}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 10% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0233, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.023307,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.104478,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"None of the member's priced trades was followed within ten trading days by a large abnormal move.","detail":"None of the member's priced trades was followed within ten trading days by a large abnormal move.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"priced":10}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"8% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 14%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.083; circular-shift null mean 0.141, 95th pct 0.417, p = 0.740.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.083333,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.083333,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"cotraded_share":0.083333,"null_mean":0.140572,"null_p95":0.416667,"excess_p":0.74,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.083333,"excess_p_wo_top":0.46}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}