{"id":"R000603","trades":[{"date":"2018-02-14","filed":"2018-04-04","ticker":null,"issuer":"Annaly Capital Mgmt. Inc.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H9112600-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2018/9112600.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2018-02-14","filed":"2018-04-04","ticker":null,"issuer":"Annaly Capital Mgmt. Inc","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H9112600-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2018/9112600.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2018-02-14","filed":"2018-04-04","ticker":"T","issuer":"AT&T Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H9112600-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2018/9112600.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.002302},{"date":"2018-02-14","filed":"2018-04-04","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":true,"trade_id":"H9112600-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2018/9112600.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.015931},{"date":"2018-02-14","filed":"2018-04-04","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corp","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H9112600-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2018/9112600.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.009735},{"date":"2018-02-14","filed":"2018-04-04","ticker":"BA","issuer":"Boeing Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":true,"trade_id":"H9112600-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2018/9112600.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.019144},{"date":"2018-02-14","filed":"2018-04-04","ticker":"MA","issuer":"Mastercard Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H9112600-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2018/9112600.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004443},{"date":"2018-02-14","filed":"2018-04-04","ticker":"AMD","issuer":"Advanced Micro Devices Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H9112600-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2018/9112600.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.026865},{"date":"2019-01-04","filed":"2019-07-26","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20012062-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012062.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.025478},{"date":"2019-01-14","filed":"2019-07-26","ticker":"EXG","issuer":"Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20012062-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012062.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001572},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-07-26","ticker":"EXG","issuer":"Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Diversified Equity Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20012062-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012062.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.004168},{"date":"2019-02-28","filed":"2019-07-26","ticker":"MAIN","issuer":"Main Street Capital Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20012062-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012062.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.053274},{"date":"2020-01-31","filed":"2020-02-27","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20016128-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016128.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001637},{"date":"2020-02-21","filed":"2020-02-27","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20016128-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016128.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.172986},{"date":"2020-04-14","filed":"2020-05-13","ticker":"JETS","issuer":"U.S. Global Jets ETF","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20016593-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016593.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.036363},{"date":"2020-04-22","filed":"2020-05-13","ticker":"PINS","issuer":"Pinterest, Inc. Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20016593-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016593.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.040577},{"date":"2020-08-27","filed":"2020-09-28","ticker":"MO","issuer":"Altria Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017436-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017436.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.003217},{"date":"2020-09-02","filed":"2020-09-28","ticker":"XLF","issuer":"SPDR Select Sector Fund - Financial","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20017436-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017436.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.053044},{"date":"2021-07-20","filed":"2021-08-12","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019312-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019312.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.003094},{"date":"2021-08-19","filed":"2021-08-30","ticker":"MO","issuer":"Altria Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019395-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019395.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.000951},{"date":"2021-11-15","filed":"2021-12-13","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020006-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20020006.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.000545},{"date":"2021-11-15","filed":"2021-12-13","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020006-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20020006.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.000545},{"date":"2021-11-15","filed":"2021-12-13","ticker":"MAIN","issuer":"Main Street Capital Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020006-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20020006.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.014628},{"date":"2022-01-14","filed":"2022-01-17","ticker":"PINS","issuer":"Pinterest, Inc. Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020237-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020237.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.061174},{"date":"2025-12-09","filed":"2026-01-07","ticker":"BA","issuer":"Boeing Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033759-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033759.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.032704}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"96% of 23 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.957, 90% Wilson [0.827, 0.990]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.956522,"ci":[0.826705,0.99024],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"lowest_band_share":0.956522,"lowest_band_ci":[0.826705,0.99024],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":2,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"13 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 8 and trading spans 68% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.128 (identified set [0.077, 0.577]); trade-count HHI 0.089 vs. 95th percentile 0.051 of 23 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.68 [0.64, 0.73]. Top three issuers (MAIN, NVDA, BRK.B) carry at least 9% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":7.817039,"ci":[1.733707,12.996365],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"issuers":13,"hhi_mid":0.127926,"hhi_bounds":[0.076945,0.576799],"n_eff":7.817039,"hhi_count":0.088847,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.051418,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.679763,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.639112,0.730676],"top3_share_lower":0.089098,"top3":["MAIN","NVDA","BRK.B"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 8.7% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.1%).","detail":"Batch-day share 1/15, Wilson [0.02, 0.25]; index of dispersion 2.64 (chi-square p = 9.34e-300); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.087 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.071, p = 0.452.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.066667,"ci":[0.015016,0.250751],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.452,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.828667,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"trade_days":15,"batch_share_trades":0.26087,"batch_day_share":0.066667,"batch_day_ci":[0.015016,0.250751],"dispersion_index":2.642195,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.086957,"proximity_null_mean":0.071012,"proximity_null_p95":0.173913,"proximity_p":0.452,"proximity_nonroutine":0.086957,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 23 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 5.30% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0530; 90% KP interval [-0.1124, 0.0064]; t_BMP = -2.63, r-bar = 0.043, t_KP = -1.85, Patell Z = -3.88, Corrado Z = -2.93. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.1479, 0.0425]. Calendar-time alpha 14.59%/yr (NW t = 0.46, 261 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.052993,"ci":[-0.112413,0.006427],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.960827,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.018188},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.024966},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.061351},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.052993},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.042541},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.145913}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"theta":-0.052993,"ci":[-0.112413,0.006427],"p":0.960827,"t_kp":-1.846306,"rbar":0.043112,"se_cs":0.02425,"se_kp":0.034604,"t_cs":-2.185285,"t_bmp":-2.634621,"patell_z":-3.87656,"corrado_z":-2.929758,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.147938,0.042541],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000579,"se":0.001253,"days":261,"t":0.462258,"p_one_sided":0.321948},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001572,0.00273],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":23,"theta":-0.018188,"ci":[-0.039455,0.003079],"p":0.94205,"t_kp":-1.636793,"rbar":0.043112,"se_cs":0.008679,"se_kp":0.012385,"t_cs":-2.095539,"t_bmp":-2.335653,"patell_z":-2.870952,"corrado_z":-2.314605},"21":{"n":23,"theta":-0.052993,"ci":[-0.112413,0.006427],"p":0.960827,"t_kp":-1.846306,"rbar":0.043112,"se_cs":0.02425,"se_kp":0.034604,"t_cs":-2.185285,"t_bmp":-2.634621,"patell_z":-3.87656,"corrado_z":-2.929758},"63":{"n":23,"theta":-0.024966,"ci":[-0.100278,0.050347],"p":0.845503,"t_kp":-1.041414,"rbar":0.043112,"se_cs":0.030736,"se_kp":0.043859,"t_cs":-0.812257,"t_bmp":-1.486066,"patell_z":-1.990801,"corrado_z":-1.270798}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 3 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.37, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.125; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.124. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.368403,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.125,"p_holm":0.75,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":3,"hits":3,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.368403,1],"p_exact":0.125,"p_magnitude":0.1237,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2020-02-24","move":-0.033166,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-25","move":-0.030302,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-27","move":-0.044912,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,56.618685],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,56.618685],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,89.969507],"absence_days":5,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"4 of 24 trades (16.7%) were disclosed late; median lag 40 days. Another 8 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.167, Wilson [0.077, 0.324]; 90th percentile lag 148 days; longest 203 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.166667,"ci":[0.077103,0.323771],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.5,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":24,"amendment_rows_excluded":1,"late":4,"late_from_trade":12,"excused_by_notification":8,"late_share":0.166667,"late_ci":[0.077103,0.323771],"median_lag":40.5,"p90_lag":148,"max_lag":203,"filings":9,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":4,"timely_priced":19,"late_priced_dates":3}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"35% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 21% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAG, HSPW, HSSY; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Agricultural Products & Services, Air Freight & Logistics, Biotechnology, Cargo Ground Transportation, Construction & Engineering, Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment, Construction Materials, Environmental & Facilities Services, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Financial Exchanges & Data, Food Distributors, Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines, Packaged Foods & Meats, Passenger Airlines, Passenger Ground Transportation, Rail Transportation, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors, Timber REITs, Water Utilities. Dollar share 0.353 (identified set [0.035, 0.891], bootstrap 0.129-0.620); benchmarks S&P 500 0.206, congressional peers 0.153.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.147001,"ci":[-0.076865,0.413788],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":17,"in_jurisdiction_trades":6,"share":0.352941,"share_bounds":[0.035122,0.890992],"share_ci":[0.129076,0.619729],"benchmark_sp500":0.205941,"benchmark_peers":0.15322,"excess":0.147001,"excess_ci":[-0.076865,0.413788],"committees":["HSAG","HSPW","HSSY"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Agricultural & Farm Machinery","Agricultural Products & Services","Air Freight & Logistics","Biotechnology","Cargo Ground Transportation","Construction & Engineering","Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment","Construction Materials","Environmental & Facilities Services","Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals","Financial Exchanges & Data","Food Distributors","Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Packaged Foods & Meats","Passenger Airlines","Passenger Ground Transportation","Rail Transportation","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors","Timber REITs","Water Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 21 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"2 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 21 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":2,"n_other":21,"events":2547}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2022-01-17 (permutation p = 0.012).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2022-01-17","changepoint_LR":13.370174,"changepoint_p":0.012,"tradeday_rate_before":0.013685,"tradeday_rate_after":0.000983}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 1% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0530, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.052993,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.014925,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"3 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 0 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson [0.00, 0.63], exact one-sided p = 1.000; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.631597],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.631597],"priced":23,"share_followed":0.130435}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 19%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.174; circular-shift null mean 0.187, 95th pct 0.348, p = 0.620. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0591, p = 0.953.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.173913,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.953284,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.971009,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.173913,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"cotraded_share":0.173913,"null_mean":0.187088,"null_p95":0.347826,"excess_p":0.62,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.173913,"excess_p_wo_top":0.62,"cotraded_car":-0.059121,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.110469,-0.007774],"cotraded_car_p":0.953284}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-24","event_date":"2020-02-24","direction":"sell","move_pct":-3.32,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-25","event_date":"2020-02-25","direction":"sell","move_pct":-3.03,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-27","event_date":"2020-02-27","direction":"sell","move_pct":-4.49,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}