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ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-051","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.05153},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"PM","issuer":"Philip Morris International Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-052","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.024856},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"PNC","issuer":"PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-053","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.021311},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"PWCDF","issuer":"Power Corp of Canada Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-054","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.003075},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"PG","issuer":"Procter & Gamble Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-055","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.003356},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"PLD","issuer":"ProLogis, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-056","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.000214},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"PRU","issuer":"Prudential Financial, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-057","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.00106},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"PEG","issuer":"Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-058","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.024656},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"RTX","issuer":"Raytheon Technologies Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-059","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.035165},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"RIO","issuer":"Rio Tinto Plc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-060","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.054838},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"RHHBY","issuer":"Roche Holdings AG Basel American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-061","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.036284},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"SNY","issuer":"Sanofi - American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-062","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014285},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"SIEGY","issuer":"Siemens AG American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-063","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.073984},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"SMFKY","issuer":"Smurfit Kappa Group Plc American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-064","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"SFTBY","issuer":"Softbank Corp Unsponsored ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-065","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.046605},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"SKHCY","issuer":"Sonic Healthcare Ltd Unsponsored ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-066","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"SO","issuer":"Southern Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-067","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.005333},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"SVNLY","issuer":"Svenska Handelsbanken Unsponsored ADR representing A Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-068","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.030878},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"TSCDY","issuer":"Tesco Plc Ord American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-069","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.027161},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"BK","issuer":"The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-070","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"TKOMY","issuer":"Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. Sponsored ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-071","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.017261},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"TTE","issuer":"TotalEnergies SE","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-072","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.013143},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"TM","issuer":"Toyota Motor Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-073","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.0044},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"TFC","issuer":"Truist Financial Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-074","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.049257},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"TSN","issuer":"Tyson Foods, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-075","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.028118},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"UGI","issuer":"UGI Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-076","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.042791},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"UOVEY","issuer":"United Overseas Bk Singapore American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-077","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.023035},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"UPMKF","issuer":"Upm Kymmene Corp Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-078","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.066115},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"VALE","issuer":"VALE S.A. American Depositary Shares Each Representing One common Share","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-079","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.101526},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"VZ","issuer":"Verizon Communications Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-080","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.03307},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"WPC","issuer":"W. P. Carey Inc. REIT","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-081","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009812},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"WMT","issuer":"Walmart Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-082","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.029859},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"ZURVY","issuer":"Zurich Insurance Group Limited Sponsored American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-083","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.028977},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2023-08-02","ticker":"DNBBY","issuer":"DNB ASA SP/ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20023426-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023426.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001344},{"date":"2022-03-16","filed":"2023-08-02","ticker":"NNGRY","issuer":"NN GROUP NV UNSP/ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20023426-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023426.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.039817},{"date":"2022-03-23","filed":"2022-04-19","ticker":"DOW","issuer":"Dow Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020828-023","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020828.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.011784},{"date":"2023-04-28","filed":"2023-05-25","ticker":null,"issuer":"Sunshine Group Partners, 4% Interest","asset_type":"other","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20023026-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023026.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"99% of 334 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.994, 90% Wilson [0.982, 0.998]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.994012,"ci":[0.982068,0.998016],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":334,"lowest_band_share":0.994012,"lowest_band_ci":[0.982068,0.998016],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":25,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"169 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 136 and trading spans 97% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.007 (identified set [0.006, 0.054]); trade-count HHI 0.007 vs. 95th percentile 0.006 of 334 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.018). Normalized sector entropy 0.97 [0.96, 0.98]. Top three issuers (NCLH, CE, BMY) carry at least 1% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":136.451071,"ci":[18.44321,168.995653],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":334,"issuers":169,"hhi_mid":0.007329,"hhi_bounds":[0.005917,0.05422],"n_eff":136.451071,"hhi_count":0.006884,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.006386,"peer_benchmark_p":0.018,"sector_entropy":0.968534,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.963974,0.981461],"top3_share_lower":0.00731,"top3":["NCLH","CE","BMY"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"18% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 7.5% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.8%).","detail":"Batch-day share 14/80, Wilson [0.12, 0.26]; index of dispersion 36.96 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.075 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.058, p = 0.204.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.175,"ci":[0.116091,0.255173],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.204,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.648267,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":334,"trade_days":80,"batch_share_trades":0.745509,"batch_day_share":0.175,"batch_day_ci":[0.116091,0.255173],"dispersion_index":36.962935,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.07485,"proximity_null_mean":0.057576,"proximity_null_p95":0.11976,"proximity_p":0.204,"proximity_nonroutine":0.07485,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 293 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.04% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0004; 90% KP interval [-0.0403, 0.0395]; t_BMP = -0.82, r-bar = 0.085, t_KP = -0.15, Patell Z = -0.98, Corrado Z = -0.71. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0685, 0.0818]. Calendar-time alpha 28.37%/yr (NW t = 2.07, 847 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.000389,"ci":[-0.040272,0.039495],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.56119,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.002538},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001815},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.004166},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000389},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.081788},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.283654}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":293,"theta":-0.000389,"ci":[-0.040272,0.039495],"p":0.56119,"t_kp":-0.154121,"rbar":0.085102,"se_cs":0.004547,"se_kp":0.02417,"t_cs":-0.085464,"t_bmp":-0.819225,"patell_z":-0.979953,"corrado_z":-0.705077,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.06847,0.081788],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.001126,"se":0.000543,"days":847,"t":2.074245,"p_one_sided":0.019028},"calendar_alpha_ci":[0.00023,0.002021],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":293,"theta":0.002538,"ci":[-0.016001,0.021078],"p":0.426764,"t_kp":0.184783,"rbar":0.085102,"se_cs":0.002114,"se_kp":0.011236,"t_cs":1.200863,"t_bmp":0.982209,"patell_z":1.22168,"corrado_z":0.51129},"21":{"n":293,"theta":-0.000389,"ci":[-0.040272,0.039495],"p":0.56119,"t_kp":-0.154121,"rbar":0.085102,"se_cs":0.004547,"se_kp":0.02417,"t_cs":-0.085464,"t_bmp":-0.819225,"patell_z":-0.979953,"corrado_z":-0.705077},"63":{"n":293,"theta":0.001815,"ci":[-0.056763,0.060394],"p":0.453271,"t_kp":0.117505,"rbar":0.085102,"se_cs":0.006679,"se_kp":0.0355,"t_cs":0.271834,"t_bmp":0.624591,"patell_z":0.598287,"corrado_z":0.410706}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 12 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 5 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.42, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.18, 0.68]; exact one-sided p = 0.806; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.509. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.416667,"ci":[0.181025,0.684762],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.806152,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":12,"hits":5,"hit_rate":0.416667,"ci":[0.181025,0.684762],"p_exact":0.806152,"p_magnitude":0.5092,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2017-08-17","move":-0.015591,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":9,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-02","move":-0.02177,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-05","move":-0.041822,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-03-22","move":-0.024997,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-03-23","move":-0.021315,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-03-26","move":0.027359,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-12-04","move":-0.032402,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-25","move":-0.030302,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-27","move":-0.044912,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-02","move":0.043306,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-24","move":0.090603,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-03-09","move":0.026811,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":85,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,0.998975],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,0.998975],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,4.272452],"absence_days":11,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"151 of 343 trades (44.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 34 days.","detail":"Late share 0.440, Wilson [0.397, 0.485]; 90th percentile lag 405 days; longest 406 days. Late-minus-timely signed CAR 0.0101, p = 0.188.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.440233,"ci":[0.396783,0.484619],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.188,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.4935,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":343,"amendment_rows_excluded":5,"late":151,"late_from_trade":151,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.440233,"late_ci":[0.396783,0.484619],"median_lag":34,"p90_lag":405,"max_lag":406,"filings":23,"late_filings":7,"late_priced":128,"timely_priced":165,"late_priced_dates":33,"late_minus_timely_car":0.010075,"late_minus_timely_ci":[-0.004996,0.03758],"late_minus_timely_p":0.188}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 0% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAP; jurisdiction sectors none. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap 0.000-0.000); benchmarks S&P 500 0.000, congressional peers 0.000.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0,"ci":[0,0],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":224,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[0,0],"benchmark_sp500":0,"benchmark_peers":0,"excess":0,"excess_ci":[0,0],"committees":["HSAP"],"jurisdiction_sectors":[]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No legislative events tied to this member's committees.","detail":"No legislative events tied to this member's committees.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2021-09-29, trading ran at 4.97 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2021-09-29, trading ran at 4.97 times its earlier rate. Change point 2021-03-02 (p = 0.042).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":4.966761,"ci":[4.08495,6.024378],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Insider: late disclosure of spouse's trades (via Salon)","url":"https://salon.com/2021/09/29/four-more-reps-under-scrutiny-for-potential-stock-trading-violations"},{"title":"OCE finds substantial reason to believe STOCK Act was violated","url":"https://news4jax.com/news/local/2022/06/01/ethics-office-finds-substantial-reason-to-believe-congressmen-rutherford-fallon-violated-stock-act"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2021-03-02","changepoint_LR":10.390868,"changepoint_p":0.042,"tradeday_rate_before":0.075789,"tradeday_rate_after":0.025271,"scrutiny_date":"2021-09-29","rate_ratio":4.966761,"rate_ratio_ci":[4.08495,6.024378]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 55% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0004, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.000389,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.552239,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"53 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 26 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.49, Clopper-Pearson [0.37, 0.61], exact one-sided p = 0.608; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.490566,"ci":[0.370924,0.611029],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.608077,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":53,"hits":26,"hit_rate":0.490566,"ci":[0.370924,0.611029],"priced":293,"share_followed":0.180887}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 6%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.036; circular-shift null mean 0.061, 95th pct 0.090, p = 0.970. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0156, p = 0.731.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.035928,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.73138,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.02994,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":334,"cotraded_share":0.035928,"null_mean":0.060848,"null_p95":0.09012,"excess_p":0.97,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.02994,"excess_p_wo_top":0.99,"cotraded_car":-0.015586,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.076112,0.044941],"cotraded_car_p":0.73138}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"25 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -1.46% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0146 [-0.0613, 0.0322], t_KP = -0.79, over 21 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -3.19% (win rate 38%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.014589,"ci":[-0.061332,0.032155],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.779728,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":25,"share_in_round_trips":0.149701,"priced":21,"realized_mean":-0.031911,"realized_win_rate":0.380952,"opening_car":-0.014589,"ci":[-0.061332,0.032155],"p":0.779728,"openings_priced":21}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2017-08-17","event_date":"2017-08-17","direction":"sell","move_pct":-1.56,"trade":"9 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-02-02","event_date":"2018-02-02","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.18,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-02-05","event_date":"2018-02-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.18,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-03-22","event_date":"2018-03-22","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.5,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-03-23","event_date":"2018-03-23","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.13,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-03-26","event_date":"2018-03-26","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.74,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-12-04","event_date":"2018-12-04","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.24,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-25","event_date":"2020-02-25","direction":"sell","move_pct":-3.03,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-27","event_date":"2020-02-27","direction":"sell","move_pct":-4.49,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-02","event_date":"2020-03-02","direction":"sell","move_pct":4.33,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-24","event_date":"2020-03-24","direction":"buy","move_pct":9.06,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-03-09","event_date":"2022-03-09","direction":"sell","move_pct":2.68,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}