{"id":"R000614","trades":[{"date":"2024-03-12","filed":"2024-04-11","ticker":"AESI","issuer":"Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[250001,500000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024848-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024848.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.032643},{"date":"2024-04-10","filed":"2024-04-11","ticker":"T","issuer":"AT&T Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024848-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024848.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.022786},{"date":"2024-04-10","filed":"2024-04-11","ticker":"CVX","issuer":"Chevron Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024848-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024848.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.022298},{"date":"2024-04-10","filed":"2024-04-11","ticker":"ET","issuer":"Energy Transfer LP Common Units","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024848-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024848.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.025193},{"date":"2024-04-10","filed":"2024-04-11","ticker":"XOM","issuer":"Exxon Mobil Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024848-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024848.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.015613},{"date":"2024-04-10","filed":"2024-04-11","ticker":"KMI","issuer":"Kinder Morgan, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024848-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024848.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.010282},{"date":"2024-04-10","filed":"2024-04-11","ticker":"NS","issuer":"Nustar Energy L.P. Common Units","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20024848-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024848.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-05-20","filed":"2024-06-10","ticker":"AESI","issuer":"Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025201-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025201.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.030341},{"date":"2026-03-30","filed":"2026-05-11","ticker":"AESI","issuer":"Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"other","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034528-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034528.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.20484},{"date":"2026-04-30","filed":"2026-05-09","ticker":"AESI","issuer":"Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"other","direction":"buy","amount":[5000001,25000000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034375-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034375.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.034884},{"date":"2026-05-13","filed":"2026-06-10","ticker":"AESI","issuer":"Atlas Energy Solutions Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20034762-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034762.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.041932}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"36% of 11 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.364, 90% Wilson [0.175, 0.606]. No firm-event calendar, so the event-linked size gap was not computed.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.363636,"ci":[0.175137,0.605974],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"lowest_band_share":0.363636,"lowest_band_ci":[0.175137,0.605974],"share_over_50k":0.454545,"max_z":2.073556}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 1 and trading spans 0% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.988 (identified set [0.945, 0.997]); trade-count HHI 0.256 vs. 95th percentile 0.107 of 11 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.00 [-0.00, 0.04]. Top three issuers (AESI, CVX, XOM) carry at least 99% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":1.011728,"ci":[1.002592,1.058286],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"issuers":7,"hhi_mid":0.988408,"hhi_bounds":[0.944924,0.997415],"n_eff":1.011728,"hhi_count":0.256198,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.107438,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.002421,"sector_entropy_ci":[0,0.042118],"top3_share_lower":0.989362,"top3":["AESI","CVX","XOM"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 0.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.2%).","detail":"Batch-day share 1/6, Wilson [0.04, 0.50]; index of dispersion 3.71 (chi-square p = 4e-175); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.000 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.072, p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.166667,"ci":[0.038106,0.502417],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"trade_days":6,"batch_share_trades":0.545455,"batch_day_share":0.166667,"batch_day_ci":[0.038106,0.502417],"dispersion_index":3.714423,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0,"proximity_null_mean":0.071598,"proximity_null_p95":0.272727,"proximity_p":1,"proximity_nonroutine":0,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 10 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.34% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0234; 90% KP interval [-0.1923, 0.2391]; t_BMP = 0.15, r-bar = 0.477, t_KP = 0.05, Patell Z = 0.15, Corrado Z = -0.08. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0629, -0.0363]. Calendar-time alpha 121.65%/yr (NW t = 1.66, 113 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.023406,"ci":[-0.192273,0.239085],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.482229,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.011802},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.034971},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"not_assessed","value":0.069088},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":-0.035324},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.036319},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":1.216495}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":10,"theta":0.023406,"ci":[-0.192273,0.239085],"p":0.482229,"t_kp":0.045816,"rbar":0.476928,"se_cs":0.036989,"se_kp":0.117657,"t_cs":0.632785,"t_bmp":0.145733,"patell_z":0.154114,"corrado_z":-0.077608,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.062912,-0.036319],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.004827,"se":0.002903,"days":113,"t":1.663042,"p_one_sided":0.048152},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000494,0.010148],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":10,"theta":-0.011802,"ci":[-0.145797,0.122193],"p":0.475372,"t_kp":0.063517,"rbar":0.476928,"se_cs":0.02298,"se_kp":0.073097,"t_cs":-0.513557,"t_bmp":0.202039,"patell_z":0.225351,"corrado_z":0.594705},"21":{"n":10,"theta":0.023406,"ci":[-0.192273,0.239085],"p":0.482229,"t_kp":0.045816,"rbar":0.476928,"se_cs":0.036989,"se_kp":0.117657,"t_cs":0.632785,"t_bmp":0.145733,"patell_z":0.154114,"corrado_z":-0.077608},"63":{"n":10,"theta":0.034971,"ci":[-0.438541,0.508484],"p":0.460488,"t_kp":0.102021,"rbar":0.476928,"se_cs":0.081208,"se_kp":0.258311,"t_cs":0.430639,"t_bmp":0.324515,"patell_z":0.320639,"corrado_z":0.326799}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":null,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,null],"rate_ratio_batchdays":null,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,null],"absence_days":0,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 10 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 1 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.213]; 90th percentile lag 28 days; longest 30 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.212942],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":10,"amendment_rows_excluded":1,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.212942],"median_lag":1,"p90_lag":28.2,"max_lag":30,"filings":4,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":10,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 6% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBU, HSJU, HSRU; jurisdiction sectors Broadline Retail, Interactive Media & Services, Pharmaceuticals. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap 0.000-0.000); benchmarks S&P 500 0.026, congressional peers 0.062.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.062048,"ci":[-0.062048,-0.062048],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":10,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[0,0],"benchmark_sp500":0.025743,"benchmark_peers":0.062048,"excess":-0.062048,"excess_ci":[-0.062048,-0.062048],"committees":["HSBU","HSJU","HSRU"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Broadline Retail","Interactive Media & Services","Pharmaceuticals"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 10 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 10 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":10,"events":2111}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2026-03-30 (permutation p = 0.042).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2026-03-30","changepoint_LR":9.105125,"changepoint_p":0.042,"tradeday_rate_before":0.005618,"tradeday_rate_after":0.090909}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 92% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0234, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.023406,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.91791,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"1 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 0 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson [0.00, 0.95], exact one-sided p = 1.000; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":1,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"priced":10,"share_followed":0.1}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"18% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 14%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.182; circular-shift null mean 0.139, 95th pct 0.273, p = 0.510.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.181818,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.181818,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"cotraded_share":0.181818,"null_mean":0.138659,"null_p95":0.272727,"excess_p":0.51,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.181818,"excess_p_wo_top":0.33}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"64% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","detail":"64% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":7,"family_share":0.636364,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 round trips but fewer than three priced.","detail":"1 round trips but fewer than three priced.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":1,"share_in_round_trips":0.181818}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}