{"id":"R000618","trades":[{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"CVS","issuer":"CVS","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014021},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"ADP","issuer":"ADP","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.02676},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"UNP","issuer":"UNP","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-003","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.028118},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"PM","issuer":"PM","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-004","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.010906},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"NTR","issuer":"NTR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-005","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"EQNR","issuer":"EQNR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-006","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.031012},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"YUM","issuer":"YUM","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-007","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.002976},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"PG","issuer":"PG","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-008","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.037421},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"BRK.B","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-009","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.0147},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"CUBE","issuer":"CUBE","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-010","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.001555},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"WAL","issuer":"WAL","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-011","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.005088},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"JNJ","issuer":"JNJ","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-012","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.028427},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"PNC","issuer":"PNC","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-013","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.021862},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"GD","issuer":"GD","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-014","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.008286},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"APA","issuer":"APA","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-015","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.059659},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"CF","issuer":"CF","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-016","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.0408},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"ABT","issuer":"ABT","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-017","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001324},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"MRK","issuer":"MRK","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-018","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.026332},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"PLD","issuer":"PLD","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-019","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.013234},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"MDT","issuer":"MDT","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-020","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.015003},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"EMR","issuer":"EMR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-021","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.009834},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"VZ","issuer":"VZ","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-022","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014925},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"KO","issuer":"KO","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-023","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.026386},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UNH","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-024","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.022216},{"date":"2023-09-21","filed":"2023-10-20","ticker":"MCD","issuer":"MCD","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"SQR000618-20231020-025","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.019855}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of 25 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.000, 90% Wilson [0.000, 0.098]. No firm-event calendar, so the event-linked size gap was not computed.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.097654],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"lowest_band_share":0,"lowest_band_ci":[0,0.097654],"share_over_50k":1,"max_z":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"25 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 22 and trading spans 83% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.046 (identified set [0.040, 0.062]); trade-count HHI 0.040 vs. 95th percentile 0.046 of 25 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.992). Normalized sector entropy 0.83 [nan, nan]. Top three issuers (ABT, BRK.B, EQNR) carry at least 8% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":21.735008,"ci":[16.173206,25],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"issuers":25,"hhi_mid":0.046009,"hhi_bounds":[0.04,0.061831],"n_eff":21.735008,"hhi_count":0.04,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.0464,"peer_benchmark_p":0.992,"sector_entropy":0.834491,"sector_entropy_ci":[null,null],"top3_share_lower":0.077923,"top3":["ABT","BRK.B","EQNR"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 0.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 0.0%).","detail":"Batch-day share 1/1, Wilson [0.27, 1.00]; index of dispersion nan (chi-square p = 1); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.000 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.000, p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":1,"ci":[0.269866,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"trade_days":1,"batch_share_trades":1,"batch_day_share":1,"batch_day_ci":[0.269866,1],"dispersion_index":null,"dispersion_p":1,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0,"proximity_null_mean":0,"proximity_null_p95":0,"proximity_p":1,"proximity_nonroutine":0,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 24 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.36% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0036; 90% KP interval [-0.0325, 0.0398]; t_BMP = 1.11, r-bar = 0.111, t_KP = 0.55, Patell Z = 1.00, Corrado Z = 1.55. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0171, 0.0194].","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.003617,"ci":[-0.032523,0.039756],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.292193,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001106},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.003966},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.019447}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":24,"theta":0.003617,"ci":[-0.032523,0.039756],"p":0.292193,"t_kp":0.554801,"rbar":0.110714,"se_cs":0.010559,"se_kp":0.021086,"t_cs":0.342515,"t_bmp":1.107929,"patell_z":0.996011,"corrado_z":1.548963,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.017145,0.019447],"calendar_time":null,"calendar_alpha_ci":[null,null],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":24,"theta":0.001106,"ci":[-0.016121,0.018334],"p":0.261334,"t_kp":0.649155,"rbar":0.110714,"se_cs":0.005034,"se_kp":0.010052,"t_cs":0.219809,"t_bmp":1.296353,"patell_z":1.069061,"corrado_z":1.499067},"21":{"n":24,"theta":0.003617,"ci":[-0.032523,0.039756],"p":0.292193,"t_kp":0.554801,"rbar":0.110714,"se_cs":0.010559,"se_kp":0.021086,"t_cs":0.342515,"t_bmp":1.107929,"patell_z":0.996011,"corrado_z":1.548963},"63":{"n":24,"theta":-0.003966,"ci":[-0.082473,0.074541],"p":0.402802,"t_kp":0.248957,"rbar":0.110714,"se_cs":0.022938,"se_kp":0.045807,"t_cs":-0.172898,"t_bmp":0.497164,"patell_z":0.454055,"corrado_z":1.418751}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 25 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 29 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.098]; 90th percentile lag 29 days; longest 29 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.097654],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.097654],"median_lag":29,"p90_lag":29,"max_lag":29,"filings":1,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":24,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"21% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 29% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SSBK, SSBU, SSEV, SSFR; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Commodity Chemicals, Construction & Engineering, Construction Materials, Electric Utilities, Environmental & Facilities Services, Financials, Real Estate, Water Utilities. Dollar share 0.213 (identified set [0.105, 0.383], bootstrap nan-nan); benchmarks S&P 500 0.293, congressional peers 0.286.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.080377,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"in_jurisdiction_trades":6,"share":0.212693,"share_bounds":[0.105265,0.382976],"share_ci":[null,null],"benchmark_sp500":0.293069,"benchmark_peers":0.286052,"excess":-0.080377,"excess_ci":[null,null],"committees":["SSBK","SSBU","SSEV","SSFR"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Commodity Chemicals","Construction & Engineering","Construction Materials","Electric Utilities","Environmental & Facilities Services","Financials","Real Estate","Water Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"6 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 18 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"6 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 18 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":6,"n_other":18,"events":2596}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point None (permutation p = 1.000).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":null,"changepoint_LR":null,"changepoint_p":1,"tradeday_rate_before":null,"tradeday_rate_after":null}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 66% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0036, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.003617,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.664179,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"1 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson [0.05, 1.00], exact one-sided p = 0.500; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"priced":24,"share_followed":0.041667}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"12% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 12%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.120; circular-shift null mean 0.120, 95th pct 0.120, p = 1.000. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0048, p = 0.459.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.12,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.459424,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.12,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"cotraded_share":0.12,"null_mean":0.12,"null_p95":0.12,"excess_p":1,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.12,"excess_p_wo_top":1,"cotraded_car":0.004815,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.142007,0.151637],"cotraded_car_p":0.459424}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"Only 0 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","detail":"Only 0 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"owner_unknown":25}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}