{"id":"R000619","trades":[{"date":"2024-11-26","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"PFE","issuer":"Pfizer, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-029","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.023192},{"date":"2024-12-12","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"TMO","issuer":"Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-032","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.005444},{"date":"2024-12-16","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"NOW","issuer":"ServiceNow, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-031","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.0142},{"date":"2025-01-14","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"ORCL","issuer":"Oracle Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-026","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.105197},{"date":"2025-05-07","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"PRU","issuer":"Prudential Financial, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-030","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.005798},{"date":"2025-07-03","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"GOOGL","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.010986},{"date":"2025-07-03","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.012674},{"date":"2025-07-31","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-025","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.011035},{"date":"2025-08-01","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.102319},{"date":"2025-08-01","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-024","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001293},{"date":"2025-09-18","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"META","issuer":"Meta Platforms, Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-018","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.040203},{"date":"2025-10-06","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"GEV","issuer":"GE Vernova Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-014","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.07935},{"date":"2025-10-27","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.007},{"date":"2025-12-02","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"LLY","issuer":"Eli Lilly and Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.064227},{"date":"2025-12-03","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"KO","issuer":"Coca-Cola Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.01196},{"date":"2026-01-02","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"LLY","issuer":"Eli Lilly and Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-013","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.02982},{"date":"2026-01-09","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"META","issuer":"Meta Platforms, Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-016","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.043463},{"date":"2026-01-09","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"PLTR","issuer":"Palantir Technologies Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-028","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.046886},{"date":"2026-02-05","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-022","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.015216},{"date":"2026-02-20","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-021","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.006994},{"date":"2026-05-06","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"META","issuer":"Meta Platforms, Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-017","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.005629},{"date":"2026-05-06","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"PLTR","issuer":"Palantir Technologies Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20035147-027","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.052387},{"date":"2026-06-25","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"GOOGL","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035147-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.014694},{"date":"2026-06-25","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035147-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.047367},{"date":"2026-06-25","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035147-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.098313},{"date":"2026-06-25","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"MU","issuer":"Micron Technology, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035147-019","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.279681},{"date":"2026-06-25","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035147-020","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.098773},{"date":"2026-06-25","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035147-023","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.030195},{"date":"2026-06-29","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"GOOGL","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035147-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.012225},{"date":"2026-07-01","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"LLY","issuer":"Eli Lilly and Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035147-012","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.012455},{"date":"2026-07-01","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"KLAC","issuer":"KLA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035147-015","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.163382},{"date":"2026-08-06","filed":"2026-08-07","ticker":"CCI","issuer":"Crown Castle Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035147-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035147.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.013649},{"date":"2026-08-07","filed":"2026-09-02","ticker":"EQIX","issuer":"Equinix, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035365-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035365.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.047851},{"date":"2026-08-12","filed":"2026-09-02","ticker":"ALL","issuer":"Allstate Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035365-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035365.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.009157},{"date":"2026-08-24","filed":"2026-08-25","ticker":"GOOGL","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035309-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035309.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.039243},{"date":"2026-09-03","filed":"2026-10-02","ticker":"GS","issuer":"Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035558-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035558.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.005035},{"date":"2026-09-03","filed":"2026-10-02","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035558-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035558.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.021418},{"date":"2026-09-28","filed":"2026-10-02","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035558-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035558.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.022958},{"date":"2026-10-16","filed":"2026-10-19","ticker":"GOOG","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class C Capital Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035671-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035671.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.055987},{"date":"2026-10-16","filed":"2026-10-19","ticker":"WSBC","issuer":"WesBanco, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035671-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035671.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.044754}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"95% of 40 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.950, 90% Wilson [0.860, 0.983]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.95,"ci":[0.859668,0.983314],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"lowest_band_share":0.95,"lowest_band_ci":[0.859668,0.983314],"share_over_50k":0.05,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":6,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"24 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 6 and trading spans 55% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.155 (identified set [0.052, 0.446]); trade-count HHI 0.058 vs. 95th percentile 0.031 of 40 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.55 [0.34, 0.68]. Top three issuers (GOOGL, GOOG, MSFT) carry at least 19% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":6.45697,"ci":[2.242203,19.388391],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"issuers":24,"hhi_mid":0.154871,"hhi_bounds":[0.051577,0.44599],"n_eff":6.45697,"hhi_count":0.0575,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.03125,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.551796,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.343325,0.676056],"top3_share_lower":0.187076,"top3":["GOOGL","GOOG","MSFT"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 15.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 8.7%).","detail":"Batch-day share 1/28, Wilson [0.01, 0.15]; index of dispersion 2.02 (chi-square p = 1.98e-36); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.150 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.087, p = 0.154.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.035714,"ci":[0.008008,0.145239],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.154,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.572,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"trade_days":28,"batch_share_trades":0.15,"batch_day_share":0.035714,"batch_day_ci":[0.008008,0.145239],"dispersion_index":2.023124,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.15,"proximity_null_mean":0.087124,"proximity_null_p95":0.2,"proximity_p":0.154,"proximity_nonroutine":0.15,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 37 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 4.78% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0478; 90% KP interval [-0.0918, -0.0038]; t_BMP = -2.48, r-bar = 0.017, t_KP = -1.94, Patell Z = -2.98, Corrado Z = -2.14. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.1197, 0.0611]. Calendar-time alpha -10.40%/yr (NW t = -0.53, 300 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.047831,"ci":[-0.091822,-0.00384],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.969651,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.012699},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.081634},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.029317},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.047831},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.061077},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.104034}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":37,"theta":-0.047831,"ci":[-0.091822,-0.00384],"p":0.969651,"t_kp":-1.936412,"rbar":0.016996,"se_cs":0.020348,"se_kp":0.026056,"t_cs":-2.350595,"t_bmp":-2.479612,"patell_z":-2.978207,"corrado_z":-2.142066,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.119721,0.061077],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000413,"se":0.000777,"days":300,"t":-0.531142,"p_one_sided":0.70234},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001725,0.000899],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":40,"theta":-0.012699,"ci":[-0.035896,0.010499],"p":0.75128,"t_kp":-0.684927,"rbar":0.016996,"se_cs":0.010586,"se_kp":0.013768,"t_cs":-1.199588,"t_bmp":-0.890827,"patell_z":-1.27259,"corrado_z":-0.698207},"21":{"n":37,"theta":-0.047831,"ci":[-0.091822,-0.00384],"p":0.969651,"t_kp":-1.936412,"rbar":0.016996,"se_cs":0.020348,"se_kp":0.026056,"t_cs":-2.350595,"t_bmp":-2.479612,"patell_z":-2.978207,"corrado_z":-2.142066},"63":{"n":31,"theta":-0.081634,"ci":[-0.156267,-0.007002],"p":0.946392,"t_kp":-1.660574,"rbar":0.016996,"se_cs":0.03548,"se_kp":0.043973,"t_cs":-2.300837,"t_bmp":-2.058033,"patell_z":-2.335599,"corrado_z":-1.053109}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.498. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.4983,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2024-12-18","move":-0.029803,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,3.414773],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,3.414773],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,4.958373],"absence_days":11,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"22 of 40 trades (55.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 130 days.","detail":"Late share 0.550, Wilson [0.422, 0.672]; 90th percentile lag 468 days; longest 619 days. Late-minus-timely signed CAR 0.0656, p = 0.080.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.55,"ci":[0.421573,0.672092],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.08,"p_holm":0.72,"q_bh":0.4935,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":22,"late_from_trade":22,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.55,"late_ci":[0.421573,0.672092],"median_lag":130.5,"p90_lag":468.3,"max_lag":619,"filings":5,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":22,"timely_priced":15,"late_priced_dates":18,"late_minus_timely_car":0.065563,"late_minus_timely_ci":[0.005417,0.121656],"late_minus_timely_p":0.08}},{"id":"T8","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"64% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 28% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSED, HSIF; jurisdiction sectors Automobile Manufacturers, Communication Services, Education Services, Energy, Health Care, Human Resource & Employment Services, Interactive Media & Services, Tobacco, Utilities. Dollar share 0.638 (identified set [0.215, 0.931], bootstrap 0.491-0.842); benchmarks S&P 500 0.279, congressional peers 0.277.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.358361,"ci":[0.21173,0.563083],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"in_jurisdiction_trades":13,"share":0.637569,"share_bounds":[0.215136,0.931058],"share_ci":[0.490938,0.842291],"benchmark_sp500":0.279208,"benchmark_peers":0.276755,"excess":0.358361,"excess_ci":[0.21173,0.563083],"committees":["HSED","HSIF"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Automobile Manufacturers","Communication Services","Education Services","Energy","Health Care","Human Resource & Employment Services","Interactive Media & Services","Tobacco","Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"12 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved -4.69% in the trade's favour, +0.14% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = -0.0469; pre-event minus other trades = 0.0014 [-0.0444, 0.0757], p = 0.558; mean pre-trade drift psi = -0.0244.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":0.001397,"ci":[-0.044379,0.07573],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.558,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.848154,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.014012},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001397},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000277},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"n_other":25,"theta9":-0.046887,"diff":0.001397,"ci":[-0.044379,0.07573],"p":0.558,"pre_trade_drift":-0.02439,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":3748,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":1597,"committee_markup":1067,"committee_reported":841,"became_law":243},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.325,"trade_dates":13,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"documentary","summary":"Scrutiny on 2026-08-11 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","detail":"Scrutiny on 2026-08-11 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"NOTUS: 22 trades disclosed months late","url":"https://www.washingtonsun.com/money/michael-rulli-stock-disclosures"}],"stats":{"scrutiny_date":"2026-08-11","changepoint":"2026-06-25","changepoint_LR":5.952396,"changepoint_p":0.23,"tradeday_rate_before":0.043689,"tradeday_rate_after":0.121951}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 3% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0478, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.047831,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.029851,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"6 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.33, Clopper-Pearson [0.06, 0.73], exact one-sided p = 0.891; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.333333,"ci":[0.06285,0.728662],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.890625,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":6,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.333333,"ci":[0.06285,0.728662],"priced":40,"share_followed":0.15}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"45% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 44%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.450; circular-shift null mean 0.445, 95th pct 0.550, p = 0.540. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0751, p = 0.962.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.45,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.962492,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.971009,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.4,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"cotraded_share":0.45,"null_mean":0.444949,"null_p95":0.55,"excess_p":0.54,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.4,"excess_p_wo_top":0.72,"cotraded_car":-0.075147,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.138603,-0.011692],"cotraded_car_p":0.962492}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -4.37% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0437 [-0.1522, 0.0647], t_KP = -0.43, over 7 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -5.14% (win rate 29%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.043726,"ci":[-0.152196,0.064744],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.657275,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":7,"share_in_round_trips":0.35,"priced":7,"realized_mean":-0.051424,"realized_win_rate":0.285714,"opening_car":-0.043726,"ci":[-0.152196,0.064744],"p":0.657275,"openings_priced":7}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2024-12-18","event_date":"2024-12-18","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.98,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}