{"id":"R000621","trades":[{"date":"2025-01-06","filed":"2025-02-11","ticker":"ABT","issuer":"Abbott Laboratories Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026756-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026756.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.002686},{"date":"2025-01-06","filed":"2025-02-11","ticker":"AMGN","issuer":"Amgen Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026756-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026756.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.052625},{"date":"2025-01-06","filed":"2025-02-11","ticker":"XOM","issuer":"Exxon Mobil Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026756-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026756.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.0196},{"date":"2025-01-06","filed":"2025-02-11","ticker":"FTV","issuer":"Fortive Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026756-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026756.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.037788},{"date":"2025-01-06","filed":"2025-02-11","ticker":"MDT","issuer":"Medtronic plc. Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026756-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026756.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.075364},{"date":"2025-01-06","filed":"2025-02-11","ticker":"MDLZ","issuer":"Mondelez International, Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026756-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026756.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.013237},{"date":"2025-01-06","filed":"2025-02-11","ticker":"PEP","issuer":"Pepsico, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026756-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026756.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.007559},{"date":"2025-01-06","filed":"2025-02-11","ticker":"PG","issuer":"Procter & Gamble Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026756-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026756.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.010199},{"date":"2025-01-06","filed":"2025-02-11","ticker":"VZ","issuer":"Verizon Communications Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026756-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026756.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.019983},{"date":"2025-01-06","filed":"2025-02-11","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026756-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026756.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.0006},{"date":"2025-01-07","filed":"2025-02-11","ticker":"GOOG","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class C Capital Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026756-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026756.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.005325}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of 11 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 1.000, 90% Wilson [0.803, 1.000]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":1,"ci":[0.802595,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"lowest_band_share":1,"lowest_band_ci":[0.802595,1],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":1,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"11 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 11 and trading spans 70% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.091 (identified set [0.091, 0.376]); trade-count HHI 0.091 vs. 95th percentile 0.107 of 11 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 1.000). Normalized sector entropy 0.70 [nan, nan]. Top three issuers (ABT, AMGN, FTV) carry at least 2% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":11,"ci":[2.661476,11],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"issuers":11,"hhi_mid":0.090909,"hhi_bounds":[0.090909,0.375731],"n_eff":11,"hhi_count":0.090909,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.107438,"peer_benchmark_p":1,"sector_entropy":0.697539,"sector_entropy_ci":[null,null],"top3_share_lower":0.024414,"top3":["ABT","AMGN","FTV"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"50% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 9.1% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 9.1%).","detail":"Batch-day share 1/2, Wilson [0.12, 0.88]; index of dispersion 7.36 (chi-square p = 0.00666); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.091 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.091, p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.5,"ci":[0.120866,0.879134],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"trade_days":2,"batch_share_trades":0.909091,"batch_day_share":0.5,"batch_day_ci":[0.120866,0.879134],"dispersion_index":7.363636,"dispersion_p":0.006656,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.090909,"proximity_null_mean":0.090909,"proximity_null_p95":0.090909,"proximity_p":1,"proximity_nonroutine":0.090909,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 11 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 4.72% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0472; 90% KP interval [-0.1028, 0.0084]; t_BMP = -2.39, r-bar = 0.103, t_KP = -1.58, Patell Z = -2.58, Corrado Z = -2.53. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.1170, 0.0144].","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.047175,"ci":[-0.102784,0.008434],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.927926,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.012033},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.04204},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.014441}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"theta":-0.047175,"ci":[-0.102784,0.008434],"p":0.927926,"t_kp":-1.584568,"rbar":0.10321,"se_cs":0.020382,"se_kp":0.030682,"t_cs":-2.314506,"t_bmp":-2.385269,"patell_z":-2.575747,"corrado_z":-2.530872,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.116984,0.014441],"calendar_time":null,"calendar_alpha_ci":[null,null],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":11,"theta":-0.012033,"ci":[-0.037308,0.013242],"p":0.781857,"t_kp":-0.810919,"rbar":0.10321,"se_cs":0.009264,"se_kp":0.013945,"t_cs":-1.298876,"t_bmp":-1.220686,"patell_z":-1.379834,"corrado_z":-1.680333},"21":{"n":11,"theta":-0.047175,"ci":[-0.102784,0.008434],"p":0.927926,"t_kp":-1.584568,"rbar":0.10321,"se_cs":0.020382,"se_kp":0.030682,"t_cs":-2.314506,"t_bmp":-2.385269,"patell_z":-2.575747,"corrado_z":-2.530872},"63":{"n":11,"theta":-0.04204,"ci":[-0.135851,0.051772],"p":0.792157,"t_kp":-0.849105,"rbar":0.10321,"se_cs":0.034384,"se_kp":0.051759,"t_cs":-1.22264,"t_bmp":-1.278168,"patell_z":-1.207394,"corrado_z":-2.580793}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":null,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,null],"rate_ratio_batchdays":null,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,null],"absence_days":0,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 11 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 36 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.197]; 90th percentile lag 36 days; longest 36 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.197405],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.197405],"median_lag":36,"p90_lag":36,"max_lag":36,"filings":1,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":11,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"9% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 3% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSGO, HSII; jurisdiction sectors Copper, Gold, Integrated Oil & Gas, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, Timber REITs. Dollar share 0.091 (identified set [0.007, 0.600], bootstrap nan-nan); benchmarks S&P 500 0.028, congressional peers 0.019.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.063186,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"in_jurisdiction_trades":1,"share":0.090909,"share_bounds":[0.006629,0.59976],"share_ci":[null,null],"benchmark_sp500":0.027723,"benchmark_peers":0.019334,"excess":0.063186,"excess_ci":[null,null],"committees":["HSGO","HSII"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Copper","Gold","Integrated Oil & Gas","Oil & Gas Exploration & Production","Timber REITs"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 10 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"1 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 10 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":1,"n_other":10,"events":3759}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point None (permutation p = 1.000).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":null,"changepoint_LR":null,"changepoint_p":1,"tradeday_rate_before":null,"tradeday_rate_after":null}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 4% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0472, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.047175,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.044776,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"2 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson [0.03, 0.97], exact one-sided p = 0.750; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.025321,0.974679],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.75,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":2,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.025321,0.974679],"priced":11,"share_followed":0.181818}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"18% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 18%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.182; circular-shift null mean 0.182, 95th pct 0.182, p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.181818,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.090909,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":11,"cotraded_share":0.181818,"null_mean":0.181818,"null_p95":0.181818,"excess_p":1,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.090909,"excess_p_wo_top":1}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -4.72% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0472 [-0.1028, 0.0084], t_KP = -1.58.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.047175,"ci":[-0.102784,0.008434],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.927926,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.954912,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":11,"family_share":1,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.047175,"family_ci":[-0.102784,0.008434],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}