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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035562-025","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035562.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.039982},{"date":"2026-09-24","filed":"2026-10-07","ticker":"META","issuer":"Meta Platforms, Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035562-026","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035562.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.05053},{"date":"2026-09-24","filed":"2026-10-07","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035562-029","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035562.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.037258},{"date":"2026-09-24","filed":"2026-10-07","ticker":"MRNA","issuer":"Moderna, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035562-030","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035562.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.040753},{"date":"2026-09-24","filed":"2026-10-07","ticker":"OKTA","issuer":"Okta, Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035562-031","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035562.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.02592},{"date":"2026-09-24","filed":"2026-10-07","ticker":"PTON","issuer":"Peloton Interactive, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035562-034","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035562.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.056552},{"date":"2026-09-24","filed":"2026-10-07","ticker":"RH","issuer":"RH Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035562-035","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035562.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.010951},{"date":"2026-09-24","filed":"2026-10-07","ticker":"CRM","issuer":"Salesforce, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035562-036","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035562.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001316},{"date":"2026-09-24","filed":"2026-10-07","ticker":"SNOW","issuer":"Snowflake Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035562-037","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035562.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.020839},{"date":"2026-09-24","filed":"2026-10-07","ticker":"SPCX","issuer":"Space Exploration Technologies Corp. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035562-040","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035562.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2026-09-24","filed":"2026-10-07","ticker":"URI","issuer":"United Rentals, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035562-041","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035562.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.014938},{"date":"2026-09-24","filed":"2026-10-07","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035562-042","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035562.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.027607}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"63% of 143 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.629, 90% Wilson [0.561, 0.693]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.629371,"ci":[0.561111,0.692825],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":143,"lowest_band_share":0.629371,"lowest_band_ci":[0.561111,0.692825],"share_over_50k":0.034965,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":16,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"52 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 25 and trading spans 78% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.040 (identified set [0.023, 0.111]); trade-count HHI 0.025 vs. 95th percentile 0.011 of 143 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.78 [0.74, 0.83]. Top three issuers (ET, TYG, BIIB) carry at least 9% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":25.13047,"ci":[9.046579,43.920344],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":143,"issuers":52,"hhi_mid":0.039792,"hhi_bounds":[0.022768,0.110539],"n_eff":25.13047,"hhi_count":0.024989,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.011101,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.779353,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.740982,0.834653],"top3_share_lower":0.086937,"top3":["ET","TYG","BIIB"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"20% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 11.2% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.5%).","detail":"Batch-day share 8/41, Wilson [0.11, 0.31]; index of dispersion 10.18 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.112 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.075, p = 0.178.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.195122,"ci":[0.113605,0.314385],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.178,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.591953,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":143,"trade_days":41,"batch_share_trades":0.552448,"batch_day_share":0.195122,"batch_day_ci":[0.113605,0.314385],"dispersion_index":10.184932,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.111888,"proximity_null_mean":0.075382,"proximity_null_p95":0.13986,"proximity_p":0.178,"proximity_nonroutine":0.111888,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 135 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.50% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0050; 90% KP interval [-0.0383, 0.0284]; t_BMP = -0.86, r-bar = 0.037, t_KP = -0.35, Patell Z = -0.76, Corrado Z = -0.73. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0506, 0.0409]. Calendar-time alpha -5.40%/yr (NW t = -0.19, 267 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.004959,"ci":[-0.038299,0.028382],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.636179,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.002887},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001313},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.005619},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.008752},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.04091},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.054029}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":135,"theta":-0.004959,"ci":[-0.038299,0.028382],"p":0.636179,"t_kp":-0.348993,"rbar":0.036543,"se_cs":0.008137,"se_kp":0.02013,"t_cs":-0.609441,"t_bmp":-0.863386,"patell_z":-0.755201,"corrado_z":-0.732724,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.050554,0.04091],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000214,"se":0.001107,"days":267,"t":-0.193745,"p_one_sided":0.576812},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.002047,0.001618],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":135,"theta":0.002887,"ci":[-0.014572,0.020346],"p":0.362267,"t_kp":0.353146,"rbar":0.036543,"se_cs":0.004261,"se_kp":0.010541,"t_cs":0.677562,"t_bmp":0.873661,"patell_z":0.838851,"corrado_z":0.600013},"21":{"n":135,"theta":-0.004959,"ci":[-0.038299,0.028382],"p":0.636179,"t_kp":-0.348993,"rbar":0.036543,"se_cs":0.008137,"se_kp":0.02013,"t_cs":-0.609441,"t_bmp":-0.863386,"patell_z":-0.755201,"corrado_z":-0.732724},"63":{"n":81,"theta":0.001313,"ci":[-0.068684,0.07131],"p":0.567653,"t_kp":-0.170952,"rbar":0.036543,"se_cs":0.020844,"se_kp":0.042062,"t_cs":0.062989,"t_bmp":-0.344976,"patell_z":-0.376552,"corrado_z":-0.664302}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 4 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.10, 0.90]; exact one-sided p = 0.688; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.686. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.097611,0.902389],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.6875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":4,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.097611,0.902389],"p_exact":0.6875,"p_magnitude":0.6858,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2024-08-05","move":-0.029124,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-08-08","move":0.023117,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-11-06","move":0.024866,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2026-06-05","move":-0.025809,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":10,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,0.630871],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,0.630871],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,2.258906],"absence_days":30,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"6 of 165 trades (3.6%) were disclosed late; median lag 28 days.","detail":"Late share 0.036, Wilson [0.019, 0.069]; 90th percentile lag 37 days; longest 116 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.036364,"ci":[0.018918,0.068768],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":165,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":6,"late_from_trade":6,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.036364,"late_ci":[0.018918,0.068768],"median_lag":28,"p90_lag":37,"max_lag":116,"filings":26,"late_filings":2,"late_priced":4,"timely_priced":131,"late_priced_dates":1}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"17% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 33% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBA, HSFA; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Financials, Real Estate, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors. Dollar share 0.174 (identified set [0.048, 0.467], bootstrap 0.083-0.255); benchmarks S&P 500 0.277, congressional peers 0.328.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.153459,"ci":[-0.244601,-0.072732],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":133,"in_jurisdiction_trades":26,"share":0.174192,"share_bounds":[0.047626,0.467435],"share_ci":[0.08305,0.254918],"benchmark_sp500":0.277228,"benchmark_peers":0.32765,"excess":-0.153459,"excess_ci":[-0.244601,-0.072732],"committees":["HSBA","HSFA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Financials","Real Estate","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"23 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 9 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"23 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 9 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"n_other":112,"trade_dates":9,"events":3399}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2024-09-30, trading ran at 4.82 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2024-09-30, trading ran at 4.82 times its earlier rate. Change point 2026-03-19 (p = 0.002).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":4.82027,"ci":[3.200684,7.496794],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Raw Story: members of the 118th Congress who violated the STOCK Act","url":"https://www.rawstory.com/congress-stock/"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2026-03-19","changepoint_LR":76.425824,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.01269,"tradeday_rate_after":0.227941,"scrutiny_date":"2024-09-30","rate_ratio":4.82027,"rate_ratio_ci":[3.200684,7.496794]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 37% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0050, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.004959,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.365672,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"28 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 15 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.54, Clopper-Pearson [0.37, 0.70], exact one-sided p = 0.425; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.535714,"ci":[0.366197,0.699275],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.425277,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":28,"hits":15,"hit_rate":0.535714,"ci":[0.366197,0.699275],"priced":135,"share_followed":0.207407}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 12%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.175; circular-shift null mean 0.124, 95th pct 0.210, p = 0.190. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0132, p = 0.350.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.174825,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.350257,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.174825,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":143,"cotraded_share":0.174825,"null_mean":0.124108,"null_p95":0.21049,"excess_p":0.19,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.174825,"excess_p_wo_top":0.16,"cotraded_car":0.013152,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.027886,0.054189],"cotraded_car_p":0.350257}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"13% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +2.54% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0254 [-0.0232, 0.0739], t_KP = 0.57; family minus self 0.0341 [-0.0159, 0.0861], p = 0.090.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.025384,"ci":[-0.023182,0.073949],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.287995,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":19,"family_share":0.132867,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.025384,"family_ci":[-0.023182,0.073949],"diff":0.034135,"diff_ci":[-0.015929,0.086141],"diff_p":0.09}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"35 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.33% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0233 [-0.0186, 0.0652], t_KP = 0.44, over 34 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +1.20% (win rate 41%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.023267,"ci":[-0.018639,0.065172],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.330656,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":35,"share_in_round_trips":0.48951,"priced":34,"realized_mean":0.011978,"realized_win_rate":0.411765,"opening_car":0.023267,"ci":[-0.018639,0.065172],"p":0.330656,"openings_priced":34}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2024-08-05","event_date":"2024-08-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.91,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-08-08","event_date":"2024-08-08","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.31,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-11-06","event_date":"2024-11-06","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.49,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2026-06-05","event_date":"2026-06-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.58,"trade":"10 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}