{"id":"S000185","trades":[{"date":"2013-10-24","filed":"2015-10-15","ticker":"HNZ","issuer":"H. J. Heinz Co.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20001382-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20001382.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2014-01-21","filed":"2015-10-15","ticker":"CVX","issuer":"Chevron Corporation","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":true,"trade_id":"H20001382-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20001382.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.004838},{"date":"2014-01-21","filed":"2015-10-15","ticker":null,"issuer":"Dominion Resources, Inc. Va New","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20001382-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20001382.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2014-01-21","filed":"2015-10-15","ticker":"JNJ","issuer":"Johnson & Johnson","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20001382-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20001382.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.024009},{"date":"2014-01-21","filed":"2015-10-15","ticker":"VZ","issuer":"Verizon Communications Inc.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20001382-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20001382.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.010262},{"date":"2014-01-28","filed":"2015-10-15","ticker":"AVY","issuer":"Avery Dennison Corporation","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20001382-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20001382.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.010335},{"date":"2014-01-28","filed":"2015-10-15","ticker":null,"issuer":"Bank Montreal Quebec","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20001382-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2015/20001382.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2016-02-17","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":null,"issuer":"Days Ferry Productions LLC","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20004801-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20004801.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2016-05-17","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":null,"issuer":"Days Ferry Productions LLC","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20004801-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20004801.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2017-03-29","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":null,"issuer":"Days Ferry Production, LLC","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20004801-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20004801.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2017-07-03","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":null,"issuer":"Days Ferry Productions, LLC","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20004801-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20004801.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2017-07-26","filed":"2017-08-01","ticker":"ADP","issuer":"Automatic Data Processing, Inc.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20004801-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20004801.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.088621},{"date":"2020-06-16","filed":"2020-06-25","ticker":"PAYX","issuer":"Paychex, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20016837-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016837.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.027775},{"date":"2020-06-16","filed":"2020-06-25","ticker":"PAYX","issuer":"Paychex, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20016837-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016837.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.027775},{"date":"2020-06-16","filed":"2020-06-25","ticker":"PG","issuer":"Procter & Gamble Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20016837-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016837.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.006763},{"date":"2020-06-16","filed":"2020-06-25","ticker":"SYY","issuer":"Sysco Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20016837-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016837.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.034956},{"date":"2020-06-16","filed":"2020-06-25","ticker":"YUMC","issuer":"Yum China Holdings, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20016837-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016837.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.071327},{"date":"2020-06-16","filed":"2020-06-25","ticker":"YUM","issuer":"Yum! Brands, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20016837-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20016837.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.040262},{"date":"2020-12-30","filed":"2021-09-08","ticker":"CDK","issuer":"CDK Global, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20019448-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019448.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2020-12-30","filed":"2021-09-08","ticker":"CL","issuer":"Colgate-Palmolive Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":true,"trade_id":"H20019448-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019448.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.052015},{"date":"2021-12-28","filed":"2022-01-10","ticker":"APD","issuer":"Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020194-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020194.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.010688},{"date":"2021-12-28","filed":"2022-01-10","ticker":"CSL","issuer":"Carlisle Companies Incorporated","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020194-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020194.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.010034},{"date":"2021-12-28","filed":"2022-01-10","ticker":"FITB","issuer":"Fifth Third Bancorp","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020194-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020194.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.062248},{"date":"2021-12-28","filed":"2022-01-10","ticker":"INTC","issuer":"Intel Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020194-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020194.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.030585},{"date":"2021-12-28","filed":"2022-01-10","ticker":"IFF","issuer":"International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020194-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020194.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.011128},{"date":"2021-12-28","filed":"2022-01-10","ticker":"JPM","issuer":"JP Morgan Chase & Co.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020194-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020194.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.053295},{"date":"2021-12-28","filed":"2022-01-10","ticker":"LIN","issuer":"Linde plc Ordinary Share","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020194-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020194.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001122},{"date":"2021-12-28","filed":"2022-01-10","ticker":"PFE","issuer":"Pfizer, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020194-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020194.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.066795},{"date":"2021-12-28","filed":"2022-01-10","ticker":"SHW","issuer":"Sherwin-Williams Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020194-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020194.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.040576}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"87% of 23 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.870, 90% Wilson [0.715, 0.947]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.869565,"ci":[0.714691,0.946645],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"lowest_band_share":0.869565,"lowest_band_ci":[0.714691,0.946645],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":5,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"22 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 9 and trading spans 72% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.108 (identified set [0.045, 0.361]); trade-count HHI 0.047 vs. 95th percentile 0.055 of 23 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.476). Normalized sector entropy 0.72 [0.65, 0.84]. Top three issuers (PAYX, ADP, SYY) carry at least 14% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":9.226917,"ci":[2.769603,21.99579],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"issuers":22,"hhi_mid":0.108379,"hhi_bounds":[0.045463,0.361063],"n_eff":9.226917,"hhi_count":0.047259,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.05482,"peer_benchmark_p":0.476,"sector_entropy":0.721259,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.650761,0.840953],"top3_share_lower":0.138983,"top3":["PAYX","ADP","SYY"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"43% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 21.7% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.1%).","detail":"Batch-day share 3/7, Wilson [0.19, 0.71]; index of dispersion 5.77 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.217 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.051, p = 0.042.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.428571,"ci":[0.186443,0.710523],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.042,"p_holm":0.21,"q_bh":0.353294,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"trade_days":7,"batch_share_trades":0.782609,"batch_day_share":0.428571,"batch_day_ci":[0.186443,0.710523],"dispersion_index":5.774537,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.217391,"proximity_null_mean":0.050536,"proximity_null_p95":0.173913,"proximity_p":0.042,"proximity_nonroutine":0.217391,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 21 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.83% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0183; 90% KP interval [-0.0125, 0.0490]; t_BMP = 1.92, r-bar = 0.037, t_KP = 1.42, Patell Z = 1.82, Corrado Z = 2.04. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0206, 0.0599]. Calendar-time alpha 14.51%/yr (NW t = 0.35, 110 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.018251,"ci":[-0.012526,0.049028],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.36147,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.00294},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.029478},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.026251},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.018251},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.059891},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.1451}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":21,"theta":0.018251,"ci":[-0.012526,0.049028],"p":0.085201,"t_kp":1.422116,"rbar":0.037366,"se_cs":0.013245,"se_kp":0.017845,"t_cs":1.37793,"t_bmp":1.915981,"patell_z":1.8185,"corrado_z":2.036522,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.020598,0.059891],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000576,"se":0.001624,"days":110,"t":0.354532,"p_one_sided":0.36147},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.002225,0.003377],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":21,"theta":-0.00294,"ci":[-0.024094,0.018213],"p":0.533034,"t_kp":-0.083948,"rbar":0.037366,"se_cs":0.009104,"se_kp":0.012265,"t_cs":-0.322989,"t_bmp":-0.113101,"patell_z":-0.166723,"corrado_z":0.510225},"21":{"n":21,"theta":0.018251,"ci":[-0.012526,0.049028],"p":0.085201,"t_kp":1.422116,"rbar":0.037366,"se_cs":0.013245,"se_kp":0.017845,"t_cs":1.37793,"t_bmp":1.915981,"patell_z":1.8185,"corrado_z":2.036522},"63":{"n":21,"theta":0.029478,"ci":[-0.023834,0.08279],"p":0.165839,"t_kp":0.994885,"rbar":0.037366,"se_cs":0.022943,"se_kp":0.03091,"t_cs":1.284841,"t_bmp":1.340383,"patell_z":1.350926,"corrado_z":0.737886}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 2 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.22, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.250; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.256. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.223607,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.25,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":2,"hits":2,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.223607,1],"p_exact":0.25,"p_magnitude":0.2562,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2014-01-24","move":-0.021335,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2014-02-03","move":-0.022505,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"12 of 29 trades (41.4%) were disclosed late; median lag 13 days.","detail":"Late share 0.414, Wilson [0.277, 0.565]; 90th percentile lag 632 days; longest 721 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.413793,"ci":[0.277089,0.56521],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":29,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":12,"late_from_trade":12,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.413793,"late_ci":[0.277089,0.56521],"median_lag":13,"p90_lag":632,"max_lag":721,"filings":5,"late_filings":3,"late_priced":5,"timely_priced":16,"late_priced_dates":3}},{"id":"T8","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"39% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 0% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBU, HSED; jurisdiction sectors Education Services, Human Resource & Employment Services. Dollar share 0.386 (identified set [0.092, 0.782], bootstrap 0.167-0.720); benchmarks S&P 500 0.004, congressional peers 0.003.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.382118,"ci":[0.162597,0.715705],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":21,"in_jurisdiction_trades":3,"share":0.386078,"share_bounds":[0.09227,0.782217],"share_ci":[0.166558,0.719666],"benchmark_sp500":0.00396,"benchmark_peers":0.003037,"excess":0.382118,"excess_ci":[0.162597,0.715705],"committees":["HSBU","HSED"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Education Services","Human Resource & Employment Services"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 21 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 21 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":21,"events":866}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2021-09-22, trading ran at 19.24 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2021-09-22, trading ran at 19.24 times its earlier rate. Change point 2014-01-29 (p = 0.016).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":19.23913,"ci":[8.521737,41.867792],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Campaign Legal Center complaint to OCE over undisclosed stock trades","url":"https://campaignlegal.org/update/clc-complaints-target-seven-members-who-failed-disclose-stock-trades"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2014-01-29","changepoint_LR":11.292112,"changepoint_p":0.016,"tradeday_rate_before":0.043478,"tradeday_rate_after":0.001937,"scrutiny_date":"2021-09-22","rate_ratio":19.23913,"rate_ratio_ci":[8.521737,41.867792]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 89% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0183, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.018251,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.88806,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 4 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.57, Clopper-Pearson [0.23, 0.87], exact one-sided p = 0.500; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.571429,"ci":[0.225322,0.871244],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":7,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.571429,"ci":[0.225322,0.871244],"priced":21,"share_followed":0.333333}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"0% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 7%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.000; circular-shift null mean 0.071, 95th pct 0.178, p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"cotraded_share":0,"null_mean":0.070707,"null_p95":0.178261,"excess_p":1,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0,"excess_p_wo_top":1}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2014-01-24","event_date":"2014-01-24","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.13,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2014-02-03","event_date":"2014-02-03","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.25,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}