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Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024212-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024212.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.009947},{"date":"2024-01-25","filed":"2024-01-24","ticker":null,"issuer":"US Treasury Bill 9128286R6","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"date_suspect":true,"trade_id":"H20024212-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024212.pdf"},{"date":"2024-01-31","filed":"2024-02-29","ticker":"COST","issuer":"Costco Wholesale Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024375-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024375.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.012191},{"date":"2024-02-07","filed":"2024-02-29","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024375-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024375.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.01451},{"date":"2024-02-29","filed":"2024-02-29","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[360,360],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024375-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024375.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.081772},{"date":"2024-02-29","filed":"2024-03-07","ticker":"V","issuer":"Visa Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024632-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024632.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.027231},{"date":"2024-03-07","filed":"2024-03-07","ticker":null,"issuer":"US Treasury 912797GQ4","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20024632-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024632.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-03-07","filed":"2024-03-07","ticker":null,"issuer":"US Treasury 912797HR1","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20024632-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024632.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-03-07","filed":"2024-03-07","ticker":null,"issuer":"US Treasury 91282CFG1","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20024632-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024632.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-03-07","filed":"2024-03-07","ticker":null,"issuer":"US Treasury 91282CFX4","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20024632-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024632.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-03-20","filed":"2024-03-07","ticker":"GIS","issuer":"General Mills, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"date_suspect":true,"trade_id":"H20024632-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024632.pdf"},{"date":"2024-05-21","filed":"2024-05-22","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025115-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025115.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.202895},{"date":"2024-06-06","filed":"2024-06-06","ticker":"NVST","issuer":"Envista Holdings Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025214-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025214.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.034662},{"date":"2024-09-09","filed":"2024-09-12","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025848-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025848.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.025956},{"date":"2024-09-10","filed":"2024-09-12","ticker":"MO","issuer":"Altria Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025848-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025848.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.062678},{"date":"2024-09-10","filed":"2024-09-12","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025848-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025848.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001122},{"date":"2024-09-16","filed":"2024-09-16","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025867-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025867.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.052786},{"date":"2024-11-01","filed":"2024-11-01","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026126-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026126.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.050747},{"date":"2024-12-18","filed":"2024-12-19","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026446-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026446.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.030058},{"date":"2025-06-12","filed":"2025-06-21","ticker":"DHR","issuer":"Danaher Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030544-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030544.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.026231},{"date":"2025-06-12","filed":"2025-06-21","ticker":"JNJ","issuer":"Johnson & Johnson Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030544-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030544.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.046953},{"date":"2025-08-25","filed":"2025-09-15","ticker":null,"issuer":"Tomball TX 889858AE6","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20032080-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20032080.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2025-10-14","filed":"2025-11-07","ticker":null,"issuer":"VLG FL CDD #14","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"joint","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20033427-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20033427.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2025-10-24","filed":"2025-10-22","ticker":null,"issuer":"VLG FL CDD #14 SPL ASSMNT REV DUE 05/01/2053 05.500%","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"joint","sector":null,"late":false,"date_suspect":true,"trade_id":"H20033330-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20033330.pdf"},{"date":"2026-03-09","filed":"2026-03-09","ticker":"VZ","issuer":"Verizon Communications Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033500-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033500.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.014324},{"date":"2026-07-24","filed":"2026-07-24","ticker":"ARCC","issuer":"Ares Capital Corporation - Closed End Fund","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20035068-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035068.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.003877},{"date":"2026-09-14","filed":"2026-09-18","ticker":"ABBV","issuer":"AbbVie Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035480-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035480.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.00689},{"date":"2026-09-14","filed":"2026-09-18","ticker":"GOOGL","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035480-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035480.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.015264},{"date":"2026-09-22","filed":"2026-09-22","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035499-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035499.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.024556}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"75% of 385 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.745, 90% Wilson [0.707, 0.780]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.745455,"ci":[0.707312,0.780171],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":385,"lowest_band_share":0.745455,"lowest_band_ci":[0.707312,0.780171],"share_over_50k":0.049351,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":26,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"156 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 42 and trading spans 94% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.024 (identified set [0.010, 0.063]); trade-count HHI 0.012 vs. 95th percentile 0.006 of 385 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.94 [0.92, 0.97]. Top three issuers (BUI, AAPL, PG) carry at least 6% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":42.178145,"ci":[15.938464,95.578036],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":385,"issuers":156,"hhi_mid":0.023709,"hhi_bounds":[0.010463,0.062741],"n_eff":42.178145,"hhi_count":0.012353,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.005853,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.935997,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.919673,0.965193],"top3_share_lower":0.061058,"top3":["BUI","AAPL","PG"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"8% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 6.8% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.0%).","detail":"Batch-day share 19/252, Wilson [0.05, 0.11]; index of dispersion 2.89 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.068 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.050, p = 0.136.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.075397,"ci":[0.052324,0.10749],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.136,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.555657,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":385,"trade_days":252,"batch_share_trades":0.262338,"batch_day_share":0.075397,"batch_day_ci":[0.052324,0.10749],"dispersion_index":2.887858,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.067532,"proximity_null_mean":0.050345,"proximity_null_p95":0.075325,"proximity_p":0.136,"proximity_nonroutine":0.067532,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 322 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.25% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0025; 90% KP interval [-0.0143, 0.0094]; t_BMP = -0.09, r-bar = 0.010, t_KP = -0.05, Patell Z = -0.09, Corrado Z = -0.11. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0318, 0.0218]. Calendar-time alpha 5.25%/yr (NW t = 0.73, 1781 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002468,"ci":[-0.014346,0.00941],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.518112,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.001775},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.008388},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.001224},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.006736},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.02175},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.052524}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":322,"theta":-0.002468,"ci":[-0.014346,0.00941],"p":0.518112,"t_kp":-0.045452,"rbar":0.009609,"se_cs":0.003546,"se_kp":0.0072,"t_cs":-0.696005,"t_bmp":-0.092303,"patell_z":-0.091281,"corrado_z":-0.111453,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.031776,0.02175],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000208,"se":0.000286,"days":1781,"t":0.729031,"p_one_sided":0.232991},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000263,0.00068],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":322,"theta":-0.001775,"ci":[-0.007534,0.003984],"p":0.643704,"t_kp":-0.368702,"rbar":0.009609,"se_cs":0.001719,"se_kp":0.003491,"t_cs":-1.032471,"t_bmp":-0.748752,"patell_z":-0.830983,"corrado_z":-0.843164},"21":{"n":322,"theta":-0.002468,"ci":[-0.014346,0.00941],"p":0.518112,"t_kp":-0.045452,"rbar":0.009609,"se_cs":0.003546,"se_kp":0.0072,"t_cs":-0.696005,"t_bmp":-0.092303,"patell_z":-0.091281,"corrado_z":-0.111453},"63":{"n":319,"theta":-0.008388,"ci":[-0.030815,0.014039],"p":0.61641,"t_kp":-0.29632,"rbar":0.009609,"se_cs":0.006718,"se_kp":0.013595,"t_cs":-1.248603,"t_bmp":-0.599633,"patell_z":-0.572811,"corrado_z":-0.161051}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 16 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 8 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.28, 0.72]; exact one-sided p = 0.598; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.417. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.278603,0.721397],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.59819,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":16,"hits":8,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.278603,0.721397],"p_exact":0.59819,"p_magnitude":0.4169,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2014-01-24","move":-0.021335,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2014-02-03","move":-0.022505,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2015-08-21","move":-0.030102,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":5,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2015-08-24","move":-0.042108,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":5,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2015-08-26","move":0.038394,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2015-09-01","move":-0.029848,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":5,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-02","move":-0.02177,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":4,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-05","move":-0.041822,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":3,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-06","move":0.019702,"dir":1,"robust":false,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":3,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-02-08","move":-0.037509,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-03-22","move":-0.024997,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-03-23","move":-0.021315,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-03-26","move":0.027359,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-04-06","move":-0.022286,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-12-26","move":0.050525,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-11-06","move":0.024866,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 8.07 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 8.07 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":8.06576,"ci":[3.492427,16.042884],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":8.06576,"rate_ratio_ci":[3.492427,16.042884],"rate_ratio_batchdays":4.081469,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0.721369,12.959322],"absence_days":7,"trades_in_absence":6}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"149 of 445 trades (33.5%) were disclosed late; median lag 22 days. Another 18 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.335, Wilson [0.299, 0.373]; 90th percentile lag 386 days; longest 1030 days. Late-minus-timely signed CAR -0.0023, p = 0.628.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.334831,"ci":[0.299129,0.37253],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.628,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.753374,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.375281,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":445,"amendment_rows_excluded":5,"late":149,"late_from_trade":167,"excused_by_notification":18,"late_share":0.334831,"late_ci":[0.299129,0.37253],"median_lag":22,"p90_lag":386,"max_lag":1030,"filings":124,"late_filings":10,"late_priced":103,"timely_priced":219,"late_priced_dates":76,"late_minus_timely_car":-0.002311,"late_minus_timely_ci":[-0.014756,0.010757],"late_minus_timely_p":0.628}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"16% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 23% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBA, HSGO; jurisdiction sectors Financials, Real Estate. Dollar share 0.161 (identified set [0.047, 0.426], bootstrap 0.096-0.257); benchmarks S&P 500 0.212, congressional peers 0.232.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.070133,"ci":[-0.135321,0.025136],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":300,"in_jurisdiction_trades":46,"share":0.161422,"share_bounds":[0.046883,0.425544],"share_ci":[0.096234,0.256691],"benchmark_sp500":0.211881,"benchmark_peers":0.231555,"excess":-0.070133,"excess_ci":[-0.135321,0.025136],"committees":["HSBA","HSGO"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Financials","Real Estate"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"42 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +0.77% in the trade's favour, +1.17% relative to the member's other trades.","detail":"theta_9 = 0.0077; pre-event minus other trades = 0.0117 [-0.0045, 0.0279], p = 0.112; mean pre-trade drift psi = 0.0029.","estimate":{"label":"Pre-event minus other trades, signed CAR","value":0.011651,"ci":[-0.00449,0.027878],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.112,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.697714,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Window 15 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.013429},{"variant":"Window 60 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.011241},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.010128},{"variant":"Placebo: month after events","reading":null,"value":null,"placebo_reading":null}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":42,"n_other":280,"theta9":0.007663,"diff":0.011651,"ci":[-0.00449,0.027878],"p":0.112,"pre_trade_drift":0.0029,"pre_trade_drift_significant":false,"events":2150,"events_by_kind":{"chamber_passage":766,"committee_markup":739,"committee_reported":549,"became_law":96},"affected_share_of_priced_trades":0.130435,"trade_dates":35,"placebo_reading":null}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2018-08-09 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2018-08-09","changepoint_LR":71.044102,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.116263,"tradeday_rate_after":0.039169}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 49% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0025, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.002468,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.485075,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"44 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 26 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.59, Clopper-Pearson [0.46, 0.72], exact one-sided p = 0.146; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.590909,"ci":[0.45587,0.716368],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.145608,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":44,"hits":26,"hit_rate":0.590909,"ci":[0.45587,0.716368],"priced":322,"share_followed":0.136646}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"16% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 13%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.156; circular-shift null mean 0.128, 95th pct 0.162, p = 0.110. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0125, p = 0.881.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.155844,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.881429,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.953281,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.119481,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":385,"cotraded_share":0.155844,"null_mean":0.128217,"null_p95":0.161818,"excess_p":0.11,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.119481,"excess_p_wo_top":0.33,"cotraded_car":-0.012471,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.030553,0.005611],"cotraded_car_p":0.881429}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"71% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -0.05% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0005 [-0.0138, 0.0128], t_KP = 0.07; family minus self 0.0062 [-0.0049, 0.0165], p = 0.190.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.000489,"ci":[-0.013776,0.012797],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.471389,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":272,"family_share":0.706494,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.000489,"family_ci":[-0.013776,0.012797],"diff":0.006246,"diff_ci":[-0.00492,0.016458],"diff_p":0.19}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"20 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +0.70% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0070 [-0.0217, 0.0357], t_KP = -0.08, over 16 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +3.32% (win rate 69%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.007002,"ci":[-0.021689,0.035693],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.530326,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":20,"share_in_round_trips":0.103896,"priced":16,"realized_mean":0.03325,"realized_win_rate":0.6875,"opening_car":0.007002,"ci":[-0.021689,0.035693],"p":0.530326,"openings_priced":16}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2014-01-24","event_date":"2014-01-24","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.13,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2014-02-03","event_date":"2014-02-03","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.25,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2015-08-21","event_date":"2015-08-21","direction":"sell","move_pct":-3.01,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2015-08-24","event_date":"2015-08-24","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.21,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2015-08-26","event_date":"2015-08-26","direction":"buy","move_pct":3.84,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2015-09-01","event_date":"2015-09-01","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.98,"trade":"5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-02-02","event_date":"2018-02-02","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.18,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-02-05","event_date":"2018-02-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.18,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-02-06","event_date":"2018-02-06","direction":"buy","move_pct":1.97,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-02-08","event_date":"2018-02-08","direction":"sell","move_pct":-3.75,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-03-22","event_date":"2018-03-22","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.5,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-03-23","event_date":"2018-03-23","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.13,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-03-26","event_date":"2018-03-26","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.74,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-04-06","event_date":"2018-04-06","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.23,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-12-26","event_date":"2018-12-26","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.05,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-11-06","event_date":"2024-11-06","direction":"buy","move_pct":2.49,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}