{"id":"S000510","trades":[{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"ABBNY","issuer":"ABB LTD SPONS ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.00156},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"ALK","issuer":"Alaska Air Group, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.07879},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"GOOG","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class C Capital Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.005663},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004341},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"BRK.B","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.018982},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"C","issuer":"Citigroup, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.006393},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"CVS","issuer":"CVS Health Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.037674},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"DE","issuer":"Deere & Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.054371},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014181},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"NEM","issuer":"Newmont Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.004926},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"PCAR","issuer":"PACCAR Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.005507},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"PG","issuer":"Procter & Gamble Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-012","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.005597},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"RSG","issuer":"Republic Services, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-013","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.01675},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-014","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.026525},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"UNP","issuer":"Union Pacific Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-015","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.010375},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"UPS","issuer":"United Parcel Service, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-016","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.019321},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"DIS","issuer":"Walt Disney Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-017","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.01217},{"date":"2025-08-08","filed":"2025-08-08","ticker":"WY","issuer":"Weyerhaeuser Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030868-018","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030868.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.013568}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of 18 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 1.000, 90% Wilson [0.869, 1.000]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":1,"ci":[0.869332,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"lowest_band_share":1,"lowest_band_ci":[0.869332,1],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":2,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"18 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 18 and trading spans 79% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.056 (identified set [0.056, 0.236]); trade-count HHI 0.056 vs. 95th percentile 0.062 of 18 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 1.000). Normalized sector entropy 0.79 [nan, nan]. Top three issuers (AAPL, ABBNY, ALK) carry at least 1% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":18,"ci":[4.235307,18],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"issuers":18,"hhi_mid":0.055556,"hhi_bounds":[0.055556,0.23611],"n_eff":18,"hhi_count":0.055556,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.061728,"peer_benchmark_p":1,"sector_entropy":0.793437,"sector_entropy_ci":[null,null],"top3_share_lower":0.013171,"top3":["AAPL","ABBNY","ALK"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 11.1% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 11.1%).","detail":"Batch-day share 1/1, Wilson [0.27, 1.00]; index of dispersion nan (chi-square p = 1); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.111 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.111, p = 1.000.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":1,"ci":[0.269866,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"trade_days":1,"batch_share_trades":1,"batch_day_share":1,"batch_day_ci":[0.269866,1],"dispersion_index":null,"dispersion_p":1,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.111111,"proximity_null_mean":0.111111,"proximity_null_p95":0.111111,"proximity_p":1,"proximity_nonroutine":0.111111,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 18 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.78% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0178; 90% KP interval [-0.0518, 0.0161]; t_BMP = -0.78, r-bar = 0.031, t_KP = -0.62, Patell Z = -0.70, Corrado Z = -0.63. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0978, 0.0476].","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.017848,"ci":[-0.051776,0.01608],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.729512,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.003696},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.007409},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.04762}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"theta":-0.017848,"ci":[-0.051776,0.01608],"p":0.729512,"t_kp":-0.6239,"rbar":0.030833,"se_cs":0.015552,"se_kp":0.019503,"t_cs":-1.147597,"t_bmp":-0.782405,"patell_z":-0.695719,"corrado_z":-0.632053,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.097784,0.04762],"calendar_time":null,"calendar_alpha_ci":[null,null],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":18,"theta":-0.003696,"ci":[-0.017848,0.010455],"p":0.600393,"t_kp":-0.258382,"rbar":0.030833,"se_cs":0.006487,"se_kp":0.008135,"t_cs":-0.569792,"t_bmp":-0.324025,"patell_z":-0.212703,"corrado_z":-0.332791},"21":{"n":18,"theta":-0.017848,"ci":[-0.051776,0.01608],"p":0.729512,"t_kp":-0.6239,"rbar":0.030833,"se_cs":0.015552,"se_kp":0.019503,"t_cs":-1.147597,"t_bmp":-0.782405,"patell_z":-0.695719,"corrado_z":-0.632053},"63":{"n":18,"theta":0.007409,"ci":[-0.07363,0.088448],"p":0.360574,"t_kp":0.362907,"rbar":0.030833,"se_cs":0.037147,"se_kp":0.046585,"t_cs":0.199442,"t_bmp":0.455105,"patell_z":0.498643,"corrado_z":0.586678}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":null,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,null],"rate_ratio_batchdays":null,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,null],"absence_days":0,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 18 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 0 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.131]; 90th percentile lag 0 days; longest 0 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.130668],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.130668],"median_lag":0,"p90_lag":0,"max_lag":0,"filings":1,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":18,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 4% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAS; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap nan-nan); benchmarks S&P 500 0.026, congressional peers 0.036.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.035639,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[null,null],"benchmark_sp500":0.025743,"benchmark_peers":0.035639,"excess":-0.035639,"excess_ci":[null,null],"committees":["HSAS"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 18 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 18 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":18,"events":285}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point None (permutation p = 1.000).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":null,"changepoint_LR":null,"changepoint_p":1,"tradeday_rate_before":null,"tradeday_rate_after":null}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 16% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0178, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.017848,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.164179,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"2 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson [0.03, 0.97], exact one-sided p = 0.750; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.025321,0.974679],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.75,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":2,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.025321,0.974679],"priced":18,"share_followed":0.111111}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"39% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 39%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.389; circular-shift null mean 0.389, 95th pct 0.389, p = 1.000. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0234, p = 0.194.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.388889,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.193682,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.388889,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"cotraded_share":0.388889,"null_mean":0.388889,"null_p95":0.388889,"excess_p":1,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.388889,"excess_p_wo_top":1,"cotraded_car":0.023391,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.022803,0.069585],"cotraded_car_p":0.193682}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -1.78% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0178 [-0.0518, 0.0161], t_KP = -0.62.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.017848,"ci":[-0.051776,0.01608],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.729512,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.928388,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":18,"family_share":1,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.017848,"family_ci":[-0.051776,0.01608],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}