{"id":"S000929","trades":[{"date":"2021-01-22","filed":"2021-02-20","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018254-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018254.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.034703},{"date":"2021-02-04","filed":"2021-02-20","ticker":"LUV","issuer":"Southwest Airlines Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018254-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018254.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.038712},{"date":"2021-05-12","filed":"2021-06-20","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018952-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018952.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.006418},{"date":"2021-05-17","filed":"2021-06-21","ticker":"ALK","issuer":"Alaska Air Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[250001,500000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018955-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018955.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.059153},{"date":"2021-05-18","filed":"2021-06-21","ticker":"LUV","issuer":"Southwest Airlines Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018955-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018955.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.055231},{"date":"2021-06-10","filed":"2021-06-20","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[500001,1000000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20018952-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20018952.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.0449},{"date":"2021-08-13","filed":"2021-10-06","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":true,"trade_id":"H20019555-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019555.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.040706},{"date":"2021-10-05","filed":"2021-10-06","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019555-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019555.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.016959},{"date":"2022-01-14","filed":"2022-02-08","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"dependent","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020414-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020414.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.00404},{"date":"2022-01-14","filed":"2022-02-08","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020415-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020415.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.00404},{"date":"2022-01-19","filed":"2022-02-08","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"dependent","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20020413-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20020413.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.028604},{"date":"2022-05-14","filed":"2022-05-16","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021050-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021050.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.070726},{"date":"2022-09-01","filed":"2022-09-12","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20021689-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20021689.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.016276},{"date":"2022-11-28","filed":"2022-12-21","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022164-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2022/20022164.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.010827},{"date":"2023-01-10","filed":"2023-01-12","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022269-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022269.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.046215},{"date":"2023-04-13","filed":"2023-04-30","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022813-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022813.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.018636},{"date":"2023-05-03","filed":"2023-05-10","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"dependent","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20022906-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20022906.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.022157},{"date":"2023-08-03","filed":"2023-08-22","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023570-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023570.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009977},{"date":"2024-02-02","filed":"2024-02-15","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024515-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024515.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.048636},{"date":"2024-02-02","filed":"2024-02-15","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"dependent","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024515-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024515.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.048636},{"date":"2024-02-02","filed":"2024-02-15","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"dependent","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20024515-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20024515.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.048636},{"date":"2024-06-28","filed":"2024-07-25","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20025519-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025519.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.055379},{"date":"2024-09-20","filed":"2024-11-04","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1000001,5000000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026136-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20026136.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.002256},{"date":"2025-02-03","filed":"2025-02-10","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20026754-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20026754.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.028585},{"date":"2025-04-03","filed":"2025-04-26","ticker":"SPG","issuer":"Simon Property Group, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Real Estate","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030233-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030233.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.022827}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"28% of 25 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.280, 90% Wilson [0.160, 0.443]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = -0.30 (within-issuer permutation p = 0.698); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.28,"ci":[0.159538,0.443429],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.698,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"lowest_band_share":0.28,"lowest_band_ci":[0.159538,0.443429],"share_over_50k":0.32,"max_z":1.693643,"size_gap":-0.298004,"size_gap_p":0.698,"event_linked":4,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"3 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 1 and trading spans 18% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.720 (identified set [0.484, 0.885]); trade-count HHI 0.782 vs. 95th percentile 0.050 of 25 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.18 [0.05, 0.29]. Top three issuers (SPG, ALK, LUV) carry at least 100% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":1.388852,"ci":[1.129313,2.067244],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"issuers":3,"hhi_mid":0.720019,"hhi_bounds":[0.483736,0.885494],"n_eff":1.388852,"hhi_count":0.7824,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.0496,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.182637,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.049278,0.285765],"top3_share_lower":1,"top3":["SPG","ALK","LUV"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"0% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 8% of trades look routine; 16.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.4%).","detail":"Batch-day share 0/22, Wilson [0.00, 0.11]; index of dispersion 1.31 (chi-square p = 1.21e-11); routine share 0.08 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.160 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.044, p = 0.050.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.109512],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.05,"p_holm":0.25,"q_bh":0.3575,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"trade_days":22,"batch_share_trades":0,"batch_day_share":0,"batch_day_ci":[0,0.109512],"dispersion_index":1.312614,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.08,"proximity_share":0.16,"proximity_null_mean":0.043848,"proximity_null_p95":0.12,"proximity_p":0.05,"proximity_nonroutine":0.173913,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 25 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.97% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0097; 90% KP interval [-0.5272, 0.5466]; t_BMP = 0.40, r-bar = 0.909, t_KP = 0.03, Patell Z = 0.34, Corrado Z = 0.45. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0309, 0.0296]. Calendar-time alpha 8.80%/yr (NW t = 0.54, 381 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.009732,"ci":[-0.527153,0.546618],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.48993,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.007697},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.011314},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.003581},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.012933},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.02959},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.088048}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"theta":0.009732,"ci":[-0.527153,0.546618],"p":0.48993,"t_kp":0.025509,"rbar":0.90885,"se_cs":0.019836,"se_kp":0.313806,"t_cs":0.490649,"t_bmp":0.403555,"patell_z":0.343113,"corrado_z":0.451313,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.030852,0.02959],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000349,"se":0.000645,"days":381,"t":0.541371,"p_one_sided":0.294126},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000755,0.001454],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":25,"theta":0.007697,"ci":[-0.191776,0.20717],"p":0.473942,"t_kp":0.066052,"rbar":0.90885,"se_cs":0.00737,"se_kp":0.116591,"t_cs":1.044391,"t_bmp":1.044948,"patell_z":1.042412,"corrado_z":0.538688},"21":{"n":25,"theta":0.009732,"ci":[-0.527153,0.546618],"p":0.48993,"t_kp":0.025509,"rbar":0.90885,"se_cs":0.019836,"se_kp":0.313806,"t_cs":0.490649,"t_bmp":0.403555,"patell_z":0.343113,"corrado_z":0.451313},"63":{"n":25,"theta":0.011314,"ci":[-0.919383,0.94201],"p":0.500478,"t_kp":-0.001211,"rbar":0.90885,"se_cs":0.034386,"se_kp":0.543986,"t_cs":0.32903,"t_bmp":-0.019154,"patell_z":-0.015598,"corrado_z":0.449547}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 4 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.25, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.01, 0.75]; exact one-sided p = 0.938; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.567. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.25,"ci":[0.012741,0.751395],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.9375,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":4,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.25,"ci":[0.012741,0.751395],"p_exact":0.9375,"p_magnitude":0.5666,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2022-05-18","move":-0.040312,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-04","move":-0.058543,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-09","move":0.105019,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-10","move":-0.043819,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,36.261287],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,36.261287],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,41.820917],"absence_days":4,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 21 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 17 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.114]; 90th percentile lag 29 days; longest 45 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.114131],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":21,"amendment_rows_excluded":4,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.114131],"median_lag":17,"p90_lag":29,"max_lag":45,"filings":17,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":25,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 0% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees JSEC; jurisdiction sectors none. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap 0.000-0.000); benchmarks S&P 500 0.000, congressional peers 0.000.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0,"ci":[0,0],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[0,0],"benchmark_sp500":0,"benchmark_peers":0,"excess":0,"excess_ci":[0,0],"committees":["JSEC"],"jurisdiction_sectors":[]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No legislative events tied to this member's committees.","detail":"No legislative events tied to this member's committees.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2021-09-29, trading ran at 0.47 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2021-09-29, trading ran at 0.47 times its earlier rate. Change point 2021-06-11 (p = 0.226).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":0.474579,"ci":[0.212781,1.145923],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Insider: undisclosed purchase in spouse's IRA (via Salon)","url":"https://salon.com/2021/09/29/four-more-reps-under-scrutiny-for-potential-stock-trading-violations"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2021-06-11","changepoint_LR":6.465758,"changepoint_p":0.226,"tradeday_rate_before":0.06,"tradeday_rate_after":0.015075,"scrutiny_date":"2021-09-29","rate_ratio":0.474579,"rate_ratio_ci":[0.212781,1.145923]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 81% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0097, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.009732,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.80597,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 3 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.75, Clopper-Pearson [0.25, 0.99], exact one-sided p = 0.312; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.75,"ci":[0.248605,0.987259],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.3125,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":4,"hits":3,"hit_rate":0.75,"ci":[0.248605,0.987259],"priced":25,"share_followed":0.16}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 3%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.040; circular-shift null mean 0.034, 95th pct 0.120, p = 0.560.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.04,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.04,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"cotraded_share":0.04,"null_mean":0.033535,"null_p95":0.12,"excess_p":0.56,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.04,"excess_p_wo_top":0.56}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"36% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","detail":"36% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":9,"family_share":0.36,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 round trips but fewer than three priced.","detail":"1 round trips but fewer than three priced.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":1,"share_in_round_trips":0.08}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2022-05-18","event_date":"2022-05-18","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.03,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-04","event_date":"2025-04-04","direction":"buy","move_pct":-5.85,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-09","event_date":"2025-04-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":10.5,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-10","event_date":"2025-04-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.38,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}