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Rowe Price Group, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20021081-016","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20021081.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.017455},{"date":"2023-03-14","filed":"2023-05-12","ticker":"USB","issuer":"U.S. Bancorp","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20021081-020","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20021081.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004822}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"89% of 136 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.890, 90% Wilson [0.838, 0.927]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.889706,"ci":[0.837699,0.92651],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":136,"lowest_band_share":0.889706,"lowest_band_ci":[0.837699,0.92651],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":13,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"70 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 26 and trading spans 67% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.039 (identified set [0.015, 0.170]); trade-count HHI 0.018 vs. 95th percentile 0.011 of 136 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.67 [0.41, 0.79]. Top three issuers (TROW, QQXT, FDN) carry at least 6% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":25.530444,"ci":[5.871581,64.736954],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":136,"issuers":70,"hhi_mid":0.039169,"hhi_bounds":[0.015447,0.170312],"n_eff":25.530444,"hhi_count":0.01795,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.011246,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.671016,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.413596,0.789722],"top3_share_lower":0.056439,"top3":["TROW","QQXT","FDN"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"18% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 18% of trades look routine; 9.6% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 3.2%).","detail":"Batch-day share 11/62, Wilson [0.11, 0.27]; index of dispersion 5.87 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.18 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.096 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.032, p = 0.024.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.177419,"ci":[0.111634,0.270181],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.024,"p_holm":0.168,"q_bh":0.309833,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":136,"trade_days":62,"batch_share_trades":0.536765,"batch_day_share":0.177419,"batch_day_ci":[0.111634,0.270181],"dispersion_index":5.87168,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.183824,"proximity_share":0.095588,"proximity_null_mean":0.032374,"proximity_null_p95":0.073529,"proximity_p":0.024,"proximity_nonroutine":0.09009,"proximity_routine":0.12}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 105 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.28% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0128; 90% KP interval [-0.0471, 0.0215]; t_BMP = -2.00, r-bar = 0.047, t_KP = -0.81, Patell Z = -2.75, Corrado Z = -1.91. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0798, 0.0343]. Calendar-time alpha -29.24%/yr (NW t = -1.57, 552 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.012788,"ci":[-0.047086,0.02151],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.941839,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.009462},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.010935},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.015685},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.012788},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.034285},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.292389}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":105,"theta":-0.012788,"ci":[-0.047086,0.02151],"p":0.788716,"t_kp":-0.805154,"rbar":0.046871,"se_cs":0.008324,"se_kp":0.020666,"t_cs":-1.536193,"t_bmp":-1.998905,"patell_z":-2.749051,"corrado_z":-1.909351,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.07979,0.034285],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.00116,"se":0.000739,"days":552,"t":-1.570398,"p_one_sided":0.941839},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.002386,0.000066],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":105,"theta":-0.009462,"ci":[-0.03223,0.013305],"p":0.760961,"t_kp":-0.71197,"rbar":0.046871,"se_cs":0.005526,"se_kp":0.013718,"t_cs":-1.712447,"t_bmp":-1.767566,"patell_z":-3.657133,"corrado_z":-0.52012},"21":{"n":105,"theta":-0.012788,"ci":[-0.047086,0.02151],"p":0.788716,"t_kp":-0.805154,"rbar":0.046871,"se_cs":0.008324,"se_kp":0.020666,"t_cs":-1.536193,"t_bmp":-1.998905,"patell_z":-2.749051,"corrado_z":-1.909351},"63":{"n":105,"theta":0.010935,"ci":[-0.03082,0.052691],"p":0.43941,"t_kp":0.152841,"rbar":0.046871,"se_cs":0.010134,"se_kp":0.025159,"t_cs":1.07903,"t_bmp":0.379448,"patell_z":0.330238,"corrado_z":-0.479857}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 4 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 3 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.75, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.25, 0.99]; exact one-sided p = 0.312; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.192. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.75,"ci":[0.248605,0.987259],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.3125,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":4,"hits":3,"hit_rate":0.75,"ci":[0.248605,0.987259],"p_exact":0.3125,"p_magnitude":0.1917,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2014-07-31","move":-0.019748,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2014-10-09","move":-0.019834,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2017-08-17","move":-0.015591,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-26","move":0.05839,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,2.093553],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,2.093553],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,4.653434],"absence_days":25,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"32 of 131 trades (24.4%) were disclosed late; median lag 29 days.","detail":"Late share 0.244, Wilson [0.188, 0.311]; 90th percentile lag 849 days; longest 858 days. Late-minus-timely signed CAR -0.0030, p = 0.600.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.244275,"ci":[0.188112,0.310787],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.6,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.753374,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":131,"amendment_rows_excluded":10,"late":32,"late_from_trade":32,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.244275,"late_ci":[0.188112,0.310787],"median_lag":29,"p90_lag":849,"max_lag":858,"filings":30,"late_filings":4,"late_priced":35,"timely_priced":70,"late_priced_dates":15,"late_minus_timely_car":-0.003029,"late_minus_timely_ci":[-0.05192,0.045412],"late_minus_timely_p":0.6}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 0% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAP; jurisdiction sectors none. Dollar share 0.000 (identified set [0.000, 0.000], bootstrap 0.000-0.000); benchmarks S&P 500 0.000, congressional peers 0.000.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0,"ci":[0,0],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":36,"in_jurisdiction_trades":0,"share":0,"share_bounds":[0,0],"share_ci":[0,0],"benchmark_sp500":0,"benchmark_peers":0,"excess":0,"excess_ci":[0,0],"committees":["HSAP"],"jurisdiction_sectors":[]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No legislative events tied to this member's committees.","detail":"No legislative events tied to this member's committees.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2016-03-18 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2016-03-18","changepoint_LR":67.486108,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.081522,"tradeday_rate_after":0.009325}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 22% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0128, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.012788,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.216418,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"20 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 6 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.30, Clopper-Pearson [0.14, 0.51], exact one-sided p = 0.979; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.3,"ci":[0.139554,0.507818],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.979305,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":20,"hits":6,"hit_rate":0.3,"ci":[0.139554,0.507818],"priced":105,"share_followed":0.190476}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"2% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 1%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.022; circular-shift null mean 0.006, 95th pct 0.022, p = 0.070. Co-traded signed CAR -0.1554, p = 0.775.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.022059,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.775416,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.022059,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":136,"cotraded_share":0.022059,"null_mean":0.005867,"null_p95":0.022059,"excess_p":0.07,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.022059,"excess_p_wo_top":0.09,"cotraded_car":-0.155389,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.442567,0.131789],"cotraded_car_p":0.775416}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"5 round trips but fewer than three priced.","detail":"5 round trips but fewer than three priced.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":5,"share_in_round_trips":0.073529}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2014-07-31","event_date":"2014-07-31","direction":"buy","move_pct":-1.97,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2014-10-09","event_date":"2014-10-09","direction":"sell","move_pct":-1.98,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2017-08-17","event_date":"2017-08-17","direction":"sell","move_pct":-1.56,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-26","event_date":"2020-03-26","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.84,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}