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before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.300, 90% Wilson [0.164, 0.484]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.3,"ci":[0.163859,0.483804],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":20,"lowest_band_share":0.3,"lowest_band_ci":[0.163859,0.483804],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":1,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 3 and trading spans 38% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.317 (identified set [0.254, 0.571]); trade-count HHI 0.325 vs. 95th percentile 0.060 of 20 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.38 [0.31, 0.46]. Top three issuers (AAPL, ABBV, PFE) carry at least 75% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":3.153443,"ci":[1.750159,3.939071],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":20,"issuers":4,"hhi_mid":0.317114,"hhi_bounds":[0.253867,0.571377],"n_eff":3.153443,"hhi_count":0.325,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.06,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.379131,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.305181,0.456874],"top3_share_lower":0.754734,"top3":["AAPL","ABBV","PFE"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"0% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 5.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.2%).","detail":"Batch-day share 0/15, Wilson [0.00, 0.15]; index of dispersion 1.79 (chi-square p = 4.32e-138); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.050 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.072, p = 0.682.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.152808],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.682,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":20,"trade_days":15,"batch_share_trades":0,"batch_day_share":0,"batch_day_ci":[0,0.152808],"dispersion_index":1.793889,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.05,"proximity_null_mean":0.071643,"proximity_null_p95":0.2,"proximity_p":0.682,"proximity_nonroutine":0.05,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 20 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.15% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0115; 90% KP interval [-0.0655, 0.0425]; t_BMP = -1.44, r-bar = 0.401, t_KP = -0.38, Patell Z = -0.96, Corrado Z = -0.53. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0338, 0.0053]. Calendar-time alpha -8.82%/yr (NW t = -0.56, 309 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.011497,"ci":[-0.065517,0.042523],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.711442,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.005679},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.029287},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.009023},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.006649},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.00531},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.088156}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":20,"theta":-0.011497,"ci":[-0.065517,0.042523],"p":0.645333,"t_kp":-0.378393,"rbar":0.401027,"se_cs":0.008235,"se_kp":0.031241,"t_cs":-1.396014,"t_bmp":-1.435426,"patell_z":-0.959943,"corrado_z":-0.532601,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.033772,0.00531],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.00035,"se":0.000627,"days":309,"t":-0.557603,"p_one_sided":0.711442},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001435,0.000735],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":20,"theta":-0.005679,"ci":[-0.036375,0.025016],"p":0.633873,"t_kp":-0.347205,"rbar":0.401027,"se_cs":0.00468,"se_kp":0.017752,"t_cs":-1.213645,"t_bmp":-1.317116,"patell_z":-1.026936,"corrado_z":-1.205053},"21":{"n":20,"theta":-0.011497,"ci":[-0.065517,0.042523],"p":0.645333,"t_kp":-0.378393,"rbar":0.401027,"se_cs":0.008235,"se_kp":0.031241,"t_cs":-1.396014,"t_bmp":-1.435426,"patell_z":-0.959943,"corrado_z":-0.532601},"63":{"n":20,"theta":-0.029287,"ci":[-0.188431,0.129857],"p":0.630081,"t_kp":-0.336965,"rbar":0.401027,"se_cs":0.024262,"se_kp":0.092037,"t_cs":-1.207125,"t_bmp":-1.278267,"patell_z":-1.316484,"corrado_z":-1.627603}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,96.111561],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,96.111561],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,131.483692],"absence_days":5,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 of 59 trades (1.7%) were disclosed late; median lag 5 days. Another 1 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.017, Wilson [0.004, 0.072]; 90th percentile lag 22 days; longest 1070 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.016949,"ci":[0.00379,0.072468],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.033898,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":59,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":1,"late_from_trade":2,"excused_by_notification":1,"late_share":0.016949,"late_ci":[0.00379,0.072468],"median_lag":5,"p90_lag":22,"max_lag":1070,"filings":28,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":20,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"20% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 14% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SSAF, SSEV, SSJU, SSSB; jurisdiction sectors Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Agricultural Products & Services, Broadline Retail, Commodity Chemicals, Construction & Engineering, Construction Materials, Electric Utilities, Environmental & Facilities Services, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Financial Exchanges & Data, Food Distributors, Interactive Media & Services, Packaged Foods & Meats, Pharmaceuticals, Regional Banks, Timber REITs, Water Utilities. Dollar share 0.202 (identified set [0.066, 0.467], bootstrap 0.011-0.445); benchmarks S&P 500 0.143, congressional peers 0.098.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.059461,"ci":[-0.132031,0.302198],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":20,"in_jurisdiction_trades":3,"share":0.202035,"share_bounds":[0.065698,0.467265],"share_ci":[0.010544,0.444772],"benchmark_sp500":0.142574,"benchmark_peers":0.097681,"excess":0.059461,"excess_ci":[-0.132031,0.302198],"committees":["SSAF","SSEV","SSJU","SSSB"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Agricultural & Farm Machinery","Agricultural Products & Services","Broadline Retail","Commodity Chemicals","Construction & Engineering","Construction Materials","Electric Utilities","Environmental & Facilities Services","Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals","Financial Exchanges & Data","Food Distributors","Interactive Media & Services","Packaged Foods & Meats","Pharmaceuticals","Regional Banks","Timber REITs","Water Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 17 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 17 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"n_other":17,"events":2517}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2018-08-20 (permutation p = 0.030).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2018-08-20","changepoint_LR":11.150494,"changepoint_p":0.03,"tradeday_rate_before":0.010638,"tradeday_rate_after":0.001621}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 25% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0115, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.011497,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.253731,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"3 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 0 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson [0.00, 0.63], exact one-sided p = 1.000; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.631597],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.631597],"priced":20,"share_followed":0.15}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"35% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 34%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.350; circular-shift null mean 0.340, 95th pct 0.505, p = 0.520. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0020, p = 0.494.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.35,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.493826,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.35,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":20,"cotraded_share":0.35,"null_mean":0.340404,"null_p95":0.505,"excess_p":0.52,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.35,"excess_p_wo_top":0.49,"cotraded_car":-0.00198,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.044809,0.040849],"cotraded_car_p":0.493826}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"29% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","detail":"29% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":5,"family_share":0.294118,"owner_unknown":3}},{"id":"T15","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 round trips but fewer than three priced.","detail":"1 round trips but fewer than three priced.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":1,"share_in_round_trips":0.1}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}