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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20032279-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20032279.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.050511}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"85% of 100 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.850, 90% Wilson [0.782, 0.899]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.85,"ci":[0.782097,0.899463],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":100,"lowest_band_share":0.85,"lowest_band_ci":[0.782097,0.899463],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":4,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"17 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 11 and trading spans 57% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.094 (identified set [0.062, 0.341]); trade-count HHI 0.088 vs. 95th percentile 0.014 of 100 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.57 [0.47, 0.72]. Top three issuers (FCEL, PLUG, MSFT) carry at least 10% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":10.637697,"ci":[2.931083,16.005227],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":100,"issuers":17,"hhi_mid":0.094005,"hhi_bounds":[0.06248,0.341171],"n_eff":10.637697,"hhi_count":0.0876,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.0144,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.573684,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.47467,0.723902],"top3_share_lower":0.099595,"top3":["FCEL","PLUG","MSFT"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"13% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 3% of trades look routine; 4.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.1%).","detail":"Batch-day share 8/61, Wilson [0.08, 0.22]; index of dispersion 2.06 (chi-square p = 1.2e-243); routine share 0.03 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.040 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.041, p = 0.552.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.131148,"ci":[0.075505,0.21812],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.552,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.94114,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":100,"trade_days":61,"batch_share_trades":0.27,"batch_day_share":0.131148,"batch_day_ci":[0.075505,0.21812],"dispersion_index":2.061382,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.03,"proximity_share":0.04,"proximity_null_mean":0.041162,"proximity_null_p95":0.09,"proximity_p":0.552,"proximity_nonroutine":0.041237,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 91 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 4.73% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0473; 90% KP interval [-0.3946, 0.3000]; t_BMP = -1.52, r-bar = 0.249, t_KP = -0.27, Patell Z = -1.91, Corrado Z = -1.85. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.3510, 0.1509]. Calendar-time alpha -31.92%/yr (NW t = -0.97, 606 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.04731,"ci":[-0.394633,0.300014],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.83371,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.016504},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.058298},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.043468},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.017618},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.150916},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.31922}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":91,"theta":-0.04731,"ci":[-0.394633,0.300014],"p":0.606669,"t_kp":-0.271455,"rbar":0.249481,"se_cs":0.037385,"se_kp":0.208984,"t_cs":-1.265481,"t_bmp":-1.517468,"patell_z":-1.909331,"corrado_z":-1.851891,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.351035,0.150916],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.001267,"se":0.001307,"days":606,"t":-0.968931,"p_one_sided":0.83371},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.00344,0.000906],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":91,"theta":-0.016504,"ci":[-0.162575,0.129568],"p":0.640223,"t_kp":-0.360183,"rbar":0.249481,"se_cs":0.015723,"se_kp":0.087891,"t_cs":-1.049668,"t_bmp":-2.013464,"patell_z":-2.022776,"corrado_z":-1.887199},"21":{"n":91,"theta":-0.04731,"ci":[-0.394633,0.300014],"p":0.606669,"t_kp":-0.271455,"rbar":0.249481,"se_cs":0.037385,"se_kp":0.208984,"t_cs":-1.265481,"t_bmp":-1.517468,"patell_z":-1.909331,"corrado_z":-1.851891},"63":{"n":91,"theta":-0.058298,"ci":[-0.627803,0.511207],"p":0.559293,"t_kp":-0.149601,"rbar":0.249481,"se_cs":0.061299,"se_kp":0.342671,"t_cs":-0.951044,"t_bmp":-0.836287,"patell_z":-0.937148,"corrado_z":-1.109821}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 4 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 4 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.47, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.062; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.062. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.472871,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.0625,"p_holm":0.5,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":4,"hits":4,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.472871,1],"p_exact":0.0625,"p_magnitude":0.0616,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2024-08-05","move":-0.029124,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2024-12-18","move":-0.029803,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-03-10","move":-0.026636,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-03","move":-0.049281,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 3.96 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 3.96 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":3.961189,"ci":[0.694371,12.748426],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":3.961189,"rate_ratio_ci":[0.694371,12.748426],"rate_ratio_batchdays":6.624746,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[1.150894,21.639941],"absence_days":17,"trades_in_absence":2}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"14 of 101 trades (13.9%) were disclosed late; median lag 36 days. Another 18 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.139, Wilson [0.091, 0.205]; 90th percentile lag 315 days; longest 406 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.138614,"ci":[0.091439,0.204645],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.316832,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":101,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":14,"late_from_trade":32,"excused_by_notification":18,"late_share":0.138614,"late_ci":[0.091439,0.204645],"median_lag":36,"p90_lag":315,"max_lag":406,"filings":19,"late_filings":4,"late_priced":12,"timely_priced":79,"late_priced_dates":9}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"13% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 10% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HLIG, HSAG, HSAS, HSRU; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Agricultural Products & Services, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Financial Exchanges & Data, Food Distributors, IT Consulting & Other Services, Packaged Foods & Meats, Systems Software, Timber REITs. Dollar share 0.133 (identified set [0.024, 0.486], bootstrap 0.066-0.274); benchmarks S&P 500 0.097, congressional peers 0.084.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.035714,"ci":[-0.031415,0.17741],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":94,"in_jurisdiction_trades":12,"share":0.132744,"share_bounds":[0.023676,0.486304],"share_ci":[0.065615,0.274439],"benchmark_sp500":0.09703,"benchmark_peers":0.084262,"excess":0.035714,"excess_ci":[-0.031415,0.17741],"committees":["HLIG","HSAG","HSAS","HSRU"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Agricultural & Farm Machinery","Agricultural Products & Services","Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals","Financial Exchanges & Data","Food Distributors","IT Consulting & Other Services","Packaged Foods & Meats","Systems Software","Timber REITs"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"7 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 84 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"7 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 84 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":7,"n_other":84,"events":763}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2020-07-16 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2020-07-16","changepoint_LR":66.142916,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.002193,"tradeday_rate_after":0.038382}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 4% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0473, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.04731,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.037313,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"10 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 3 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.30, Clopper-Pearson [0.09, 0.61], exact one-sided p = 0.945; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.3,"ci":[0.087264,0.606624],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.945312,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":10,"hits":3,"hit_rate":0.3,"ci":[0.087264,0.606624],"priced":91,"share_followed":0.10989}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"9% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 6%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.090; circular-shift null mean 0.056, 95th pct 0.091, p = 0.140. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0530, p = 0.552.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.09,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.551612,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.07,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":100,"cotraded_share":0.09,"null_mean":0.056263,"null_p95":0.091,"excess_p":0.14,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.07,"excess_p_wo_top":0.19,"cotraded_car":-0.052994,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.238565,0.132576],"cotraded_car_p":0.551612}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"46% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -8.05% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0805 [-0.3469, 0.1860], t_KP = -0.35; family minus self -0.0628 [-0.1915, 0.0608], p = 0.792.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.080454,"ci":[-0.346873,0.185966],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.637064,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":46,"family_share":0.46,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.080454,"family_ci":[-0.346873,0.185966],"diff":-0.062836,"diff_ci":[-0.191543,0.060834],"diff_p":0.792}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"28 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +6.35% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0635 [-0.3593, 0.4864], t_KP = 0.20, over 26 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -3.06% (win rate 56%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.063548,"ci":[-0.359277,0.486372],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.421722,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":28,"share_in_round_trips":0.56,"priced":25,"realized_mean":-0.030595,"realized_win_rate":0.56,"opening_car":0.063548,"ci":[-0.359277,0.486372],"p":0.421722,"openings_priced":26}},{"id":"T16","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2 option trades (2% of all reported trades).","detail":"2 option trades (2% of all reported trades).","estimate":{"label":"Option share","value":0.019802,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":2,"option_share":0.019802}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2024-08-05","event_date":"2024-08-05","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.91,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2024-12-18","event_date":"2024-12-18","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.98,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-03-10","event_date":"2025-03-10","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.66,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-03","event_date":"2025-04-03","direction":"sell","move_pct":-4.93,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}