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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.822034,"ci":[0.757099,0.872532],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":118,"lowest_band_share":0.822034,"lowest_band_ci":[0.757099,0.872532],"share_over_50k":0.067797,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":2,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"59 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 6 and trading spans 63% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.174 (identified set [0.042, 0.486]); trade-count HHI 0.033 vs. 95th percentile 0.013 of 118 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.63 [0.36, 0.76]. Top three issuers (RPM, MSFT, SPY) carry at least 21% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":5.739134,"ci":[2.055624,23.865442],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":118,"issuers":59,"hhi_mid":0.174242,"hhi_bounds":[0.041902,0.48647],"n_eff":5.739134,"hhi_count":0.033324,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.012927,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.627891,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.355551,0.759991],"top3_share_lower":0.210654,"top3":["RPM","MSFT","SPY"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"23% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 1.7% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.6%).","detail":"Batch-day share 7/31, Wilson [0.13, 0.37]; index of dispersion 17.72 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.017 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.046, p = 0.862.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.225806,"ci":[0.127329,0.368303],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.862,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":118,"trade_days":31,"batch_share_trades":0.788136,"batch_day_share":0.225806,"batch_day_ci":[0.127329,0.368303],"dispersion_index":17.719967,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.016949,"proximity_null_mean":0.046313,"proximity_null_p95":0.110169,"proximity_p":0.862,"proximity_nonroutine":0.016949,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 93 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.41% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0141; 90% KP interval [-0.0116, 0.0399]; t_BMP = 1.25, r-bar = 0.024, t_KP = 0.69, Patell Z = 1.16, Corrado Z = 0.66. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0347, 0.0612]. Calendar-time alpha -17.61%/yr (NW t = -1.30, 281 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.014146,"ci":[-0.01157,0.039862],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.902875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.005746},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"fits","value":0.071232},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.017682},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":0.002913},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.061225},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.176088}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":93,"theta":0.014146,"ci":[-0.01157,0.039862],"p":0.24652,"t_kp":0.688228,"rbar":0.0241,"se_cs":0.008524,"se_kp":0.015477,"t_cs":1.659591,"t_bmp":1.249596,"patell_z":1.163654,"corrado_z":0.659139,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.034659,0.061225],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000699,"se":0.000538,"days":281,"t":-1.298108,"p_one_sided":0.902875},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001593,0.000196],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":93,"theta":0.005746,"ci":[-0.00233,0.013822],"p":0.214464,"t_kp":0.794537,"rbar":0.0241,"se_cs":0.002677,"se_kp":0.004861,"t_cs":2.146395,"t_bmp":1.442618,"patell_z":1.351195,"corrado_z":1.343202},"21":{"n":93,"theta":0.014146,"ci":[-0.01157,0.039862],"p":0.24652,"t_kp":0.688228,"rbar":0.0241,"se_cs":0.008524,"se_kp":0.015477,"t_cs":1.659591,"t_bmp":1.249596,"patell_z":1.163654,"corrado_z":0.659139},"63":{"n":93,"theta":0.071232,"ci":[0.010514,0.131949],"p":0.014914,"t_kp":2.206652,"rbar":0.0241,"se_cs":0.020126,"se_kp":0.036542,"t_cs":3.539333,"t_bmp":4.006555,"patell_z":4.229767,"corrado_z":3.194856}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 5 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 4 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.80, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.34, 0.99]; exact one-sided p = 0.188; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.062. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.8,"ci":[0.342592,0.989794],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.1875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":5,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.8,"ci":[0.342592,0.989794],"p_exact":0.1875,"p_magnitude":0.0619,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2015-08-21","move":-0.030102,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2015-08-24","move":-0.042108,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-12-26","move":0.050525,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-03-07","move":-0.029479,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2022-03-09","move":0.026811,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"11 of 119 trades (9.2%) were disclosed late; median lag 27 days.","detail":"Late share 0.092, Wilson [0.057, 0.146]; 90th percentile lag 44 days; longest 553 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.092437,"ci":[0.057372,0.145622],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":119,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":11,"late_from_trade":11,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.092437,"late_ci":[0.057372,0.145622],"median_lag":27,"p90_lag":44,"max_lag":553,"filings":22,"late_filings":4,"late_priced":6,"timely_priced":87,"late_priced_dates":5}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"11% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 22% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SSAS, SSCM, SSEV, SSVA; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Air Freight & Logistics, Automobile Manufacturers, Cargo Ground Transportation, Commodity Chemicals, Communication Services, Construction & Engineering, Construction Materials, Electric Utilities, Environmental & Facilities Services, Health Care Facilities, Health Care Services, Interactive Media & Services, Passenger Airlines, Rail Transportation, Semiconductors, Water Utilities. Dollar share 0.106 (identified set [0.018, 0.423], bootstrap 0.035-0.200); benchmarks S&P 500 0.200, congressional peers 0.223.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.117038,"ci":[-0.188571,-0.022874],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":100,"in_jurisdiction_trades":22,"share":0.106249,"share_bounds":[0.017736,0.422905],"share_ci":[0.034717,0.200414],"benchmark_sp500":0.2,"benchmark_peers":0.223288,"excess":-0.117038,"excess_ci":[-0.188571,-0.022874],"committees":["SSAS","SSCM","SSEV","SSVA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Air Freight & Logistics","Automobile Manufacturers","Cargo Ground Transportation","Commodity Chemicals","Communication Services","Construction & Engineering","Construction Materials","Electric Utilities","Environmental & Facilities Services","Health Care Facilities","Health Care Services","Interactive Media & Services","Passenger Airlines","Rail Transportation","Semiconductors","Water Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"21 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 4 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"21 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 4 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":21,"n_other":72,"trade_dates":4,"events":3678}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2015-01-29 (permutation p = 0.220).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2015-01-29","changepoint_LR":6.711151,"changepoint_p":0.22,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.012793}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 86% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0141, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.014146,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.858209,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"3 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.67, Clopper-Pearson [0.14, 0.98], exact one-sided p = 0.500; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"priced":93,"share_followed":0.032258}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"21% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 13%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.212; circular-shift null mean 0.132, 95th pct 0.239, p = 0.110. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0141, p = 0.443.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.211864,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.44265,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.152542,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":118,"cotraded_share":0.211864,"null_mean":0.132426,"null_p95":0.238983,"excess_p":0.11,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.152542,"excess_p_wo_top":0.34,"cotraded_car":0.014112,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.025644,0.053869],"cotraded_car_p":0.44265}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"4% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","detail":"4% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":1,"family_share":0.04,"owner_unknown":93}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +7.06% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0706 [-0.0461, 0.1874], t_KP = 1.20, over 4 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +2.36% (win rate 100%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.070631,"ci":[-0.046102,0.187364],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.157566,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":4,"share_in_round_trips":0.067797,"priced":4,"realized_mean":0.0236,"realized_win_rate":1,"opening_car":0.070631,"ci":[-0.046102,0.187364],"p":0.157566,"openings_priced":4}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2015-08-21","event_date":"2015-08-21","direction":"sell","move_pct":-3.01,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2015-08-24","event_date":"2015-08-24","direction":"sell","move_pct":-4.21,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-12-26","event_date":"2018-12-26","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.05,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-03-07","event_date":"2022-03-07","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.95,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2022-03-09","event_date":"2022-03-09","direction":"sell","move_pct":2.68,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}