{"id":"S001199","trades":[{"date":"2017-04-03","filed":"2017-10-21","ticker":"MKL","issuer":"Markel Corporation","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20008194-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20008194.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.005901},{"date":"2017-04-03","filed":"2017-10-21","ticker":"PG","issuer":"Procter & Gamble Company","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":true,"trade_id":"H20008194-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20008194.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.002917},{"date":"2017-08-31","filed":"2017-10-21","ticker":"CNI","issuer":"Canadian National Railway Company","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20008194-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2017/20008194.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.013284},{"date":"2018-09-06","filed":"2019-05-13","ticker":"ATVI","issuer":"Activision Blizzard, Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20011664-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20011664.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2018-11-09","filed":"2019-05-13","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20011664-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20011664.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.008231},{"date":"2019-02-04","filed":"2019-05-13","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20011664-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20011664.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.040712},{"date":"2019-02-05","filed":"2019-05-13","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20011664-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20011664.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.017358},{"date":"2019-03-18","filed":"2019-04-11","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20011440-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20011440.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.02184},{"date":"2019-04-05","filed":"2019-04-11","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20011440-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20011440.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.002764},{"date":"2019-05-01","filed":"2019-05-13","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20011664-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20011664.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014715},{"date":"2019-06-03","filed":"2019-07-09","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20011948-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20011948.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.029233},{"date":"2019-07-02","filed":"2019-07-09","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20011948-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20011948.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.00694},{"date":"2019-07-31","filed":"2020-01-24","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20014943-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20014943.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.017321},{"date":"2019-09-03","filed":"2020-01-24","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20014943-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20014943.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.016204},{"date":"2019-10-14","filed":"2020-01-24","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20014943-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20014943.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001776},{"date":"2019-10-14","filed":"2020-01-24","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20014943-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20014943.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001776},{"date":"2019-10-31","filed":"2020-01-24","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20014943-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20014943.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.023475},{"date":"2019-12-02","filed":"2020-01-24","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20014943-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20014943.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.003705},{"date":"2019-12-03","filed":"2020-01-24","ticker":"ATVI","issuer":"Activision Blizzard, Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20014943-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20014943.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2020-01-02","filed":"2020-01-24","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20014943-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20014943.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.002344},{"date":"2020-01-21","filed":"2020-01-24","ticker":"ATVI","issuer":"Activision Blizzard, Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20014943-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20014943.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2020-07-22","filed":"2020-11-09","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20017042-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017042.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.025907},{"date":"2020-10-09","filed":"2020-11-09","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017042-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017042.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004792},{"date":"2026-04-17","filed":"2026-04-30","ticker":"FULT","issuer":"Fulton Financial Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019182-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20019182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.031573},{"date":"2026-04-17","filed":"2026-04-30","ticker":"FULT","issuer":"Fulton Financial Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019182-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20019182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.031573},{"date":"2026-04-17","filed":"2026-04-30","ticker":"TFC","issuer":"Truist Financial Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019182-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20019182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.004176},{"date":"2026-04-23","filed":"2026-04-30","ticker":"ENBP","issuer":"ENB FINANCIAL CORP PA","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019182-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20019182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.021336},{"date":"2026-04-23","filed":"2026-04-30","ticker":"FULT","issuer":"Fulton Financial Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019182-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20019182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.038129},{"date":"2026-04-23","filed":"2026-04-30","ticker":"PRU","issuer":"Prudential Financial, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019182-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20019182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.030322},{"date":"2026-04-23","filed":"2026-04-30","ticker":"VZ","issuer":"Verizon Communications Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019182-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20019182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.013637},{"date":"2026-04-23","filed":"2026-04-30","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019182-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20019182.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.007285}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"52% of 31 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.516, 90% Wilson [0.373, 0.656]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.516129,"ci":[0.373242,0.656426],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":31,"lowest_band_share":0.516129,"lowest_band_ci":[0.373242,0.656426],"share_over_50k":0.096774,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":1,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"12 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 3 and trading spans 42% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.335 (identified set [0.177, 0.590]); trade-count HHI 0.220 vs. 95th percentile 0.041 of 31 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.42 [0.32, 0.59]. Top three issuers (FULT, AAPL, ATVI) carry at least 58% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":2.986123,"ci":[1.693984,5.637727],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":31,"issuers":12,"hhi_mid":0.334882,"hhi_bounds":[0.177376,0.590324],"n_eff":2.986123,"hhi_count":0.219563,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.040583,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.420128,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.318369,0.588957],"top3_share_lower":0.579037,"top3":["FULT","AAPL","ATVI"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 3.2% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.9%).","detail":"Batch-day share 1/23, Wilson [0.01, 0.17]; index of dispersion 1.96 (chi-square p = 8.53e-149); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.032 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.059, p = 0.814.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.043478,"ci":[0.00976,0.173295],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.814,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":31,"trade_days":23,"batch_share_trades":0.16129,"batch_day_share":0.043478,"batch_day_ci":[0.00976,0.173295],"dispersion_index":1.955456,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.032258,"proximity_null_mean":0.059474,"proximity_null_p95":0.132258,"proximity_p":0.814,"proximity_nonroutine":0.032258,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 28 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.53% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0153; 90% KP interval [-0.1193, 0.1499]; t_BMP = 1.14, r-bar = 0.534, t_KP = 0.20, Patell Z = 1.46, Corrado Z = 0.86. Dollar-weighted identified set [0.0126, 0.0768]. Calendar-time alpha -7.35%/yr (NW t = -0.43, 363 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.015295,"ci":[-0.119333,0.149924],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.66563,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.001689},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.026373},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.013846},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.015295},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.076781},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.073475}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":28,"theta":0.015295,"ci":[-0.119333,0.149924],"p":0.42248,"t_kp":0.197442,"rbar":0.534285,"se_cs":0.013734,"se_kp":0.07904,"t_cs":1.113701,"t_bmp":1.136324,"patell_z":1.460473,"corrado_z":0.863455,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[0.012559,0.076781],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000292,"se":0.000681,"days":363,"t":-0.427879,"p_one_sided":0.66563},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001452,0.000869],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":28,"theta":0.001689,"ci":[-0.03516,0.038538],"p":0.467445,"t_kp":0.082459,"rbar":0.534285,"se_cs":0.003759,"se_kp":0.021634,"t_cs":0.449295,"t_bmp":0.474571,"patell_z":0.337153,"corrado_z":-0.249219},"21":{"n":28,"theta":0.015295,"ci":[-0.119333,0.149924],"p":0.42248,"t_kp":0.197442,"rbar":0.534285,"se_cs":0.013734,"se_kp":0.07904,"t_cs":1.113701,"t_bmp":1.136324,"patell_z":1.460473,"corrado_z":0.863455},"63":{"n":28,"theta":-0.026373,"ci":[-0.248043,0.195296],"p":0.547585,"t_kp":-0.12069,"rbar":0.534285,"se_cs":0.022613,"se_kp":0.130142,"t_cs":-1.166292,"t_bmp":-0.6946,"patell_z":-0.814025,"corrado_z":-1.82515}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.504. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.5042,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2019-08-05","move":-0.030073,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,59.861369],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,59.861369],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,82.076226],"absence_days":4,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"12 of 31 trades (38.7%) were disclosed late; median lag 36 days. Another 3 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.387, Wilson [0.258, 0.534]; 90th percentile lag 185 days; longest 249 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.387097,"ci":[0.257861,0.534458],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.483871,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":31,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":12,"late_from_trade":15,"excused_by_notification":3,"late_share":0.387097,"late_ci":[0.257861,0.534458],"median_lag":36,"p90_lag":185,"max_lag":249,"filings":7,"late_filings":3,"late_priced":10,"timely_priced":18,"late_priced_dates":9}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"6% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 14% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBU, HSWM, JSEC; jurisdiction sectors Distillers & Vintners, Health Care, Life & Health Insurance, Tobacco. Dollar share 0.060 (identified set [0.015, 0.217], bootstrap 0.009-0.175); benchmarks S&P 500 0.139, congressional peers 0.119.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.078961,"ci":[-0.129298,0.036803],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":28,"in_jurisdiction_trades":5,"share":0.059653,"share_bounds":[0.015401,0.217381],"share_ci":[0.009316,0.175417],"benchmark_sp500":0.138614,"benchmark_peers":0.11941,"excess":-0.078961,"excess_ci":[-0.129298,0.036803],"committees":["HSBU","HSWM","JSEC"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Distillers & Vintners","Health Care","Life & Health Insurance","Tobacco"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"5 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 23 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"5 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 23 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":5,"n_other":23,"events":1493}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2020-10-12 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2020-10-12","changepoint_LR":28.018491,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.022826,"tradeday_rate_after":0.001385}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 87% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0153, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.015295,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.873134,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"2 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 0 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson [0.00, 0.78], exact one-sided p = 1.000; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.776393],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":2,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.776393],"priced":28,"share_followed":0.071429}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"35% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 38%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.355; circular-shift null mean 0.379, 95th pct 0.487, p = 0.700. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0069, p = 0.458.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.354839,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.45849,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.354839,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":31,"cotraded_share":0.354839,"null_mean":0.378951,"null_p95":0.487097,"excess_p":0.7,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.354839,"excess_p_wo_top":0.48,"cotraded_car":0.006852,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.17558,0.189284],"cotraded_car_p":0.45849}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2019-08-05","event_date":"2019-08-05","direction":"sell","move_pct":-3.01,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}