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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.03 (within-issuer permutation p = 0.754); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.05,"ci":[0.016686,0.140332],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.754,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"lowest_band_share":0.05,"lowest_band_ci":[0.016686,0.140332],"share_over_50k":0.875,"max_z":0.674492,"size_gap":0.03113,"size_gap_p":0.754,"event_linked":2,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"18 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 9 and trading spans 40% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.113 (identified set [0.074, 0.218]); trade-count HHI 0.090 vs. 95th percentile 0.031 of 40 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.40 [0.29, 0.57]. Top three issuers (PODD, DXCM, CUTR) carry at least 28% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":8.846433,"ci":[4.591452,13.537552],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"issuers":18,"hhi_mid":0.11304,"hhi_bounds":[0.073869,0.217796],"n_eff":8.846433,"hhi_count":0.09,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.03125,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.404275,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.287376,0.570682],"top3_share_lower":0.276761,"top3":["PODD","DXCM","CUTR"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"0% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 5.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.7%).","detail":"Batch-day share 0/26, Wilson [0.00, 0.09]; index of dispersion 1.93 (chi-square p = 8.16e-132); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.050 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.047, p = 0.504.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.094252],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.504,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.9009,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"trade_days":26,"batch_share_trades":0,"batch_day_share":0,"batch_day_ci":[0,0.094252],"dispersion_index":1.932498,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.05,"proximity_null_mean":0.046693,"proximity_null_p95":0.125,"proximity_p":0.504,"proximity_nonroutine":0.05,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 21 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.12% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0012; 90% KP interval [-0.1303, 0.1326]; t_BMP = -0.05, r-bar = 0.199, t_KP = -0.02, Patell Z = -0.07, Corrado Z = -0.91. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0868, 0.0029]. Calendar-time alpha -5.50%/yr (NW t = -0.12, 263 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.001181,"ci":[-0.130281,0.132643],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.547217,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000393},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.011959},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.005788},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":0.027449},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"does_not_fit","value":0.002865},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.054989}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":21,"theta":0.001181,"ci":[-0.130281,0.132643],"p":0.508519,"t_kp":-0.021625,"rbar":0.198837,"se_cs":0.030582,"se_kp":0.076222,"t_cs":0.038617,"t_bmp":-0.053898,"patell_z":-0.069831,"corrado_z":-0.913869,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.086787,0.002865],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000218,"se":0.001839,"days":263,"t":-0.118634,"p_one_sided":0.547217},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.003391,0.002954],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":21,"theta":-0.000393,"ci":[-0.086356,0.085569],"p":0.479634,"t_kp":0.051716,"rbar":0.198837,"se_cs":0.019998,"se_kp":0.049841,"t_cs":-0.019666,"t_bmp":0.128896,"patell_z":0.217834,"corrado_z":-0.487606},"21":{"n":21,"theta":0.001181,"ci":[-0.130281,0.132643],"p":0.508519,"t_kp":-0.021625,"rbar":0.198837,"se_cs":0.030582,"se_kp":0.076222,"t_cs":0.038617,"t_bmp":-0.053898,"patell_z":-0.069831,"corrado_z":-0.913869},"63":{"n":21,"theta":-0.011959,"ci":[-0.169587,0.14567],"p":0.505593,"t_kp":-0.014197,"rbar":0.198837,"se_cs":0.036669,"se_kp":0.091394,"t_cs":-0.326122,"t_bmp":-0.035384,"patell_z":-0.028653,"corrado_z":-0.949488}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.67, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.14, 0.98]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.621. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":3,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.666667,"ci":[0.13535,0.983048],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.6205,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2018-04-06","move":-0.022286,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":3,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-18","move":-0.050633,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-24","move":0.090603,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2 of 44 trades (4.5%) were disclosed late; median lag 14 days.","detail":"Late share 0.045, Wilson [0.015, 0.128]; 90th percentile lag 30 days; longest 482 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.045455,"ci":[0.015158,0.128413],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":44,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":2,"late_from_trade":2,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.045455,"late_ci":[0.015158,0.128413],"median_lag":13.5,"p90_lag":30,"max_lag":482,"filings":24,"late_filings":2,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":21,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"87% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 40% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SLIA, SSAF, SSBK, SSFI; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Agricultural Products & Services, Distillers & Vintners, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Financial Exchanges & Data, Financials, Food Distributors, Health Care, Life & Health Insurance, Packaged Foods & Meats, Real Estate, Timber REITs, Tobacco. Dollar share 0.869 (identified set [0.734, 0.941], bootstrap 0.714-0.937); benchmarks S&P 500 0.396, congressional peers 0.392.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.473075,"ci":[0.318345,0.540902],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":31,"in_jurisdiction_trades":24,"share":0.869115,"share_bounds":[0.734162,0.940755],"share_ci":[0.714384,0.936942],"benchmark_sp500":0.39604,"benchmark_peers":0.391547,"excess":0.473075,"excess_ci":[0.318345,0.540902],"committees":["SLIA","SSAF","SSBK","SSFI"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Agricultural & Farm Machinery","Agricultural Products & Services","Distillers & Vintners","Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals","Financial Exchanges & Data","Financials","Food Distributors","Health Care","Life & Health Insurance","Packaged Foods & Meats","Real Estate","Timber REITs","Tobacco"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"13 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 8 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"13 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 8 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":13,"n_other":8,"events":1250}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2018-10-31 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2018-10-31","changepoint_LR":18.78293,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.051643,"tradeday_rate_after":0.007645}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 60% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0012, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.001181,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.604478,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"8 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 7 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.88, Clopper-Pearson [0.53, 0.99], exact one-sided p = 0.035; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.875,"ci":[0.529321,0.993609],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.035156,"p_holm":0.175781,"q_bh":0.721154,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":8,"hits":7,"hit_rate":0.875,"ci":[0.529321,0.993609],"priced":24,"share_followed":0.333333}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 4%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.050; circular-shift null mean 0.042, 95th pct 0.100, p = 0.570.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.05,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.025,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":40,"cotraded_share":0.05,"null_mean":0.041667,"null_p95":0.1,"excess_p":0.57,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.025,"excess_p_wo_top":0.94}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"80% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","detail":"80% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":16,"family_share":0.8,"owner_unknown":20}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2018-04-06","event_date":"2018-04-06","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.23,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-18","event_date":"2020-03-18","direction":"sell","move_pct":-5.06,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-24","event_date":"2020-03-24","direction":"sell","move_pct":9.06,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}