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Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-150","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.00143},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"NOW","issuer":"ServiceNow, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-151","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.065935},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"SBUX","issuer":"Starbucks Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-154","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014373},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"SYK","issuer":"Stryker Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-155","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.027863},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"TSLA","issuer":"Tesla, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-159","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.049435},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"TXN","issuer":"Texas Instruments Incorporated","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-162","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.004726},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"TMO","issuer":"Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-163","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.011746},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"TJX","issuer":"TJX Companies, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-166","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.012592},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"TMUS","issuer":"T-Mobile US, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-167","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.025841},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"UNP","issuer":"Union Pacific Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-170","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.021231},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"UPS","issuer":"United Parcel Service, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-171","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.034826},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-174","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.028126},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"VZ","issuer":"Verizon Communications Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-176","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.032779},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"VRTX","issuer":"Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-177","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014525},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"V","issuer":"Visa Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-180","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.010831},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"WMT","issuer":"Walmart Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-181","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004119},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"DIS","issuer":"Walt Disney Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-184","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.013692},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"WFC","issuer":"Wells Fargo & Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-186","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.028593},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-09","ticker":"ZTS","issuer":"Zoetis Inc. Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023892-188","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023892.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.046543},{"date":"2023-10-24","filed":"2023-11-13","ticker":"TDY","issuer":"Teledyne Technologies Incorporated","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20023994-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2023/20023994.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.017556},{"date":"2026-05-06","filed":"2026-05-07","ticker":"TCNNF","issuer":"TRULIEVE CANNABIS CORP","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20034499-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034499.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2026-05-28","filed":"2026-06-26","ticker":"TCNNF","issuer":"TRULIEVE CANNABIS CORP","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[100001,250000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20034717-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20034717.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"97% of 190 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.968, 90% Wilson [0.940, 0.984]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.968421,"ci":[0.940105,0.983584],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":190,"lowest_band_share":0.968421,"lowest_band_ci":[0.940105,0.983584],"share_over_50k":0.005263,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":19,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"96 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 22 and trading spans 83% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.045 (identified set [0.011, 0.311]); trade-count HHI 0.011 vs. 95th percentile 0.009 of 190 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.004). Normalized sector entropy 0.83 [-0.00, 0.86]. Top three issuers (TCNNF, AAPL, MSFT) carry at least 6% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":22.120272,"ci":[3.213018,88.200767],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":190,"issuers":96,"hhi_mid":0.045207,"hhi_bounds":[0.011338,0.311234],"n_eff":22.120272,"hhi_count":0.010526,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.008981,"peer_benchmark_p":0.004,"sector_entropy":0.831433,"sector_entropy_ci":[0,0.860931],"top3_share_lower":0.059627,"top3":["TCNNF","AAPL","MSFT"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"40% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 49% of trades look routine; 10.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.3%).","detail":"Batch-day share 2/5, Wilson [0.14, 0.73]; index of dispersion 91.94 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.49 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.100 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.073, p = 0.202.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.4,"ci":[0.142706,0.727517],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.202,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.648267,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":190,"trade_days":5,"batch_share_trades":0.984211,"batch_day_share":0.4,"batch_day_ci":[0.142706,0.727517],"dispersion_index":91.937673,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.494737,"proximity_share":0.1,"proximity_null_mean":0.073094,"proximity_null_p95":0.163684,"proximity_p":0.202,"proximity_nonroutine":0.052083,"proximity_routine":0.148936}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 186 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.50% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0050; 90% KP interval [-0.0171, 0.0072]; t_BMP = -1.66, r-bar = 0.010, t_KP = -0.97, Patell Z = -1.53, Corrado Z = -1.53. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0532, 0.0630]. Calendar-time alpha -75.43%/yr (NW t = -1.80, 62 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.004966,"ci":[-0.017134,0.007202],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.963854,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.002548},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.008309},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.013175},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.062955},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.754319}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":186,"theta":-0.004966,"ci":[-0.017134,0.007202],"p":0.832478,"t_kp":-0.966522,"rbar":0.010426,"se_cs":0.004278,"se_kp":0.00736,"t_cs":-1.160706,"t_bmp":-1.662763,"patell_z":-1.530174,"corrado_z":-1.530176,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.053186,0.062955],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.002993,"se":0.001665,"days":62,"t":-1.797272,"p_one_sided":0.963854},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.005747,-0.00024],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":186,"theta":-0.002548,"ci":[-0.009744,0.004647],"p":0.884752,"t_kp":-1.203046,"rbar":0.010426,"se_cs":0.00253,"se_kp":0.004353,"t_cs":-1.007165,"t_bmp":-2.069668,"patell_z":-2.295887,"corrado_z":-2.999739},"21":{"n":186,"theta":-0.004966,"ci":[-0.017134,0.007202],"p":0.832478,"t_kp":-0.966522,"rbar":0.010426,"se_cs":0.004278,"se_kp":0.00736,"t_cs":-1.160706,"t_bmp":-1.662763,"patell_z":-1.530174,"corrado_z":-1.530176},"63":{"n":186,"theta":-0.008309,"ci":[-0.030913,0.014295],"p":0.835605,"t_kp":-0.979141,"rbar":0.010426,"se_cs":0.007948,"se_kp":0.013673,"t_cs":-1.045407,"t_bmp":-1.684471,"patell_z":-1.42592,"corrado_z":-1.009287}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,3.714747],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,3.714747],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,191.806882],"absence_days":4,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 190 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 36 days. Another 1 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.014]; 90th percentile lag 44 days; longest 381 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.01404],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.005263,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":190,"amendment_rows_excluded":1,"late":0,"late_from_trade":1,"excused_by_notification":1,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.01404],"median_lag":36.5,"p90_lag":44,"max_lag":381,"filings":3,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":186,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"21% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 17% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSFA, HSPW, HSZS; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Air Freight & Logistics, Cargo Ground Transportation, Construction & Engineering, Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment, Construction Materials, Environmental & Facilities Services, Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines, Passenger Airlines, Passenger Ground Transportation, Rail Transportation, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors, Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals, Water Utilities. Dollar share 0.210 (identified set [0.025, 0.751], bootstrap 0.186-0.257); benchmarks S&P 500 0.160, congressional peers 0.172.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.038191,"ci":[0.01463,0.085569],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":186,"in_jurisdiction_trades":32,"share":0.209898,"share_bounds":[0.024603,0.751208],"share_ci":[0.186338,0.257277],"benchmark_sp500":0.160396,"benchmark_peers":0.171707,"excess":0.038191,"excess_ci":[0.01463,0.085569],"committees":["HSFA","HSPW","HSZS"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Air Freight & Logistics","Cargo Ground Transportation","Construction & Engineering","Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment","Construction Materials","Environmental & Facilities Services","Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Passenger Airlines","Passenger Ground Transportation","Rail Transportation","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors","Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Water Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"30 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 2 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"30 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 2 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":30,"n_other":156,"trade_dates":2,"events":2737}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2026-05-06 (permutation p = 0.032).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2026-05-06","changepoint_LR":9.425913,"changepoint_p":0.032,"tradeday_rate_before":0.003254,"tradeday_rate_after":0.117647}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 36% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0050, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.004966,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.358209,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"30 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 15 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson [0.34, 0.66], exact one-sided p = 0.572; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.338893,0.661107],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.572232,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":30,"hits":15,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.338893,0.661107],"priced":186,"share_followed":0.16129}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"16% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 25%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.163; circular-shift null mean 0.247, 95th pct 0.483, p = 0.700. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0142, p = 0.204.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.163158,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.203626,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.121053,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":190,"cotraded_share":0.163158,"null_mean":0.246837,"null_p95":0.482632,"excess_p":0.7,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.121053,"excess_p_wo_top":0.79,"cotraded_car":0.014239,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.004357,0.032835],"cotraded_car_p":0.203626}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -0.50% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0050 [-0.0171, 0.0072], t_KP = -0.97.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.004966,"ci":[-0.017134,0.007202],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.832478,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.936795,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":190,"family_share":1,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.004966,"family_ci":[-0.017134,0.007202],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"92 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -1.23% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0123 [-0.0247, 0.0002], t_KP = -2.07, over 91 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -0.54% (win rate 46%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.012262,"ci":[-0.024722,0.000197],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.979258,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":92,"share_in_round_trips":0.968421,"priced":91,"realized_mean":-0.005384,"realized_win_rate":0.461538,"opening_car":-0.012262,"ci":[-0.024722,0.000197],"p":0.979258,"openings_priced":91}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}