{"id":"S001213","trades":[{"date":"2019-07-12","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"ASB","issuer":"Associated Banc-Corp","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012040-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012040.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.00302},{"date":"2019-07-12","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"BMO","issuer":"Bank of Montreal","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012040-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012040.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.006899},{"date":"2019-07-12","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"FIS","issuer":"Fidelity National Information Services, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012040-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012040.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.011173},{"date":"2019-07-12","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"FISV","issuer":"Fiserv, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012040-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012040.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.018504},{"date":"2019-07-12","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"JPM","issuer":"JP Morgan Chase & Co.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012040-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012040.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.005441},{"date":"2019-07-12","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"MRK","issuer":"Merck & Company, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012040-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012040.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.023083},{"date":"2019-07-12","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"USB","issuer":"U.S. Bancorp","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012040-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012040.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.033972},{"date":"2019-07-22","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"ASB","issuer":"Associated Banc-Corp","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012039-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012039.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.043869},{"date":"2019-07-22","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"BMO","issuer":"Bank of Montreal","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012039-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012039.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.005253},{"date":"2019-07-22","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"FIS","issuer":"Fidelity National Information Services, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012039-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012039.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.029554},{"date":"2019-07-22","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"FISV","issuer":"Fiserv, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012039-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012039.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.081232},{"date":"2019-07-22","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"JPM","issuer":"JP Morgan Chase & Co.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012039-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012039.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.00409},{"date":"2019-07-22","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"MRK","issuer":"Merck & Company, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012039-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012039.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001422},{"date":"2019-07-22","filed":"2019-07-22","ticker":"USB","issuer":"U.S. Bancorp","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20012039-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2019/20012039.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.022262}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"71% of 14 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.714, 90% Wilson [0.494, 0.865]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.714286,"ci":[0.494496,0.864666],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":14,"lowest_band_share":0.714286,"lowest_band_ci":[0.494496,0.864666],"share_over_50k":0.142857,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":2,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 2 and trading spans 6% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.422 (identified set [0.188, 0.710]); trade-count HHI 0.143 vs. 95th percentile 0.082 of 14 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.06 [nan, nan]. Top three issuers (FISV, FIS, ASB) carry at least 52% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":2.368992,"ci":[1.40776,5.310295],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":14,"issuers":7,"hhi_mid":0.42212,"hhi_bounds":[0.188313,0.710348],"n_eff":2.368992,"hhi_count":0.142857,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.081633,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.060458,"sector_entropy_ci":[null,null],"top3_share_lower":0.523821,"top3":["FISV","FIS","ASB"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 50% of trades look routine; 14.3% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 10.5%).","detail":"Batch-day share 2/2, Wilson [0.43, 1.00]; index of dispersion 5.83 (chi-square p = 4.31e-06); routine share 0.50 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.143 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.105, p = 0.602.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":1,"ci":[0.425031,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.602,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.967258,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":14,"trade_days":2,"batch_share_trades":1,"batch_day_share":1,"batch_day_ci":[0.425031,1],"dispersion_index":5.833333,"dispersion_p":0.000004,"routine_share":0.5,"proximity_share":0.142857,"proximity_null_mean":0.105497,"proximity_null_p95":0.142857,"proximity_p":0.602,"proximity_nonroutine":0.142857,"proximity_routine":0.142857}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 14 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.17% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0217; 90% KP interval [-0.0797, 0.0363]; t_BMP = -1.00, r-bar = 0.158, t_KP = -0.52, Patell Z = -1.40, Corrado Z = -0.58. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.1188, -0.0485].","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.021711,"ci":[-0.079704,0.036282],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.695716,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.018504},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.022507},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"not_assessed","value":-0.015859},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.021711},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.04848}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":14,"theta":-0.021711,"ci":[-0.079704,0.036282],"p":0.695716,"t_kp":-0.524782,"rbar":0.158178,"se_cs":0.017186,"se_kp":0.032747,"t_cs":-1.263282,"t_bmp":-0.999925,"patell_z":-1.39509,"corrado_z":-0.581116,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.118843,-0.04848],"calendar_time":null,"calendar_alpha_ci":[null,null],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":14,"theta":-0.018504,"ci":[-0.039999,0.002991],"p":0.93483,"t_kp":-1.614857,"rbar":0.158178,"se_cs":0.00637,"se_kp":0.012138,"t_cs":-2.904767,"t_bmp":-3.076968,"patell_z":-3.023548,"corrado_z":-2.077484},"21":{"n":14,"theta":-0.021711,"ci":[-0.079704,0.036282],"p":0.695716,"t_kp":-0.524782,"rbar":0.158178,"se_cs":0.017186,"se_kp":0.032747,"t_cs":-1.263282,"t_bmp":-0.999925,"patell_z":-1.39509,"corrado_z":-0.581116},"63":{"n":14,"theta":-0.022507,"ci":[-0.064202,0.019187],"p":0.793313,"t_kp":-0.845035,"rbar":0.158178,"se_cs":0.012356,"se_kp":0.023544,"t_cs":-1.821533,"t_bmp":-1.610139,"patell_z":-0.786653,"corrado_z":-0.282226}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 7 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 0 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.279]; 90th percentile lag 0 days; longest 0 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.278763],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":7,"amendment_rows_excluded":7,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.278763],"median_lag":0,"p90_lag":0,"max_lag":0,"filings":1,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":14,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"97% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 23% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBA, HSHA, JSLC, JSPR; jurisdiction sectors Financials, Real Estate. Dollar share 0.967 (identified set [0.821, 0.995], bootstrap nan-nan); benchmarks S&P 500 0.212, congressional peers 0.232.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.735459,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":14,"in_jurisdiction_trades":12,"share":0.967014,"share_bounds":[0.821441,0.995256],"share_ci":[null,null],"benchmark_sp500":0.211881,"benchmark_peers":0.231555,"excess":0.735459,"excess_ci":[null,null],"committees":["HSBA","HSHA","JSLC","JSPR"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Financials","Real Estate"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"12 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 2 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"12 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 2 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":12,"n_other":2,"events":2150}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point None (permutation p = 1.000).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":null,"changepoint_LR":null,"changepoint_p":1,"tradeday_rate_before":null,"tradeday_rate_after":null}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 12% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0217, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.021711,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.119403,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"3 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 0 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson [0.00, 0.63], exact one-sided p = 1.000; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.631597],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.631597],"priced":14,"share_followed":0.214286}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"7% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 8%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.071; circular-shift null mean 0.082, 95th pct 0.143, p = 0.680.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.071429,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.071429,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":14,"cotraded_share":0.071429,"null_mean":0.08153,"null_p95":0.142857,"excess_p":0.68,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.071429,"excess_p_wo_top":0.68}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}