{"id":"T000480","trades":[{"date":"2020-05-28","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":true,"trade_id":"H20017111-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.001013},{"date":"2020-05-28","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"JNJ","issuer":"Johnson & Johnson","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20017111-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.02428},{"date":"2020-05-28","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"CRM","issuer":"Salesforce.com Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20017111-014","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.082402},{"date":"2020-05-28","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"SBUX","issuer":"Starbucks Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":true,"trade_id":"H20017111-016","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.027905},{"date":"2020-05-28","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"WMT","issuer":"Walmart Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":true,"trade_id":"H20017111-017","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.034665},{"date":"2020-06-29","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"ABBV","issuer":"AbbVie Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017111-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.000487},{"date":"2020-06-29","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"AMZN","issuer":"Amazon.com, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017111-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.090219},{"date":"2020-06-29","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"AAPL","issuer":"Apple Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017111-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.015382},{"date":"2020-06-29","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"BAC","issuer":"Bank of America Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017111-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.054654},{"date":"2020-06-29","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"CVX","issuer":"Chevron Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017111-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.052291},{"date":"2020-06-29","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"FB","issuer":"Facebook, Inc. - Class A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20017111-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2020-06-29","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"GILD","issuer":"Gilead Sciences, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017111-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.004732},{"date":"2020-06-29","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"JNJ","issuer":"Johnson & Johnson","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017111-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.003001},{"date":"2020-06-29","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017111-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.00592},{"date":"2020-06-29","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"NKE","issuer":"Nike, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017111-012","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.018655},{"date":"2020-06-29","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"CRM","issuer":"Salesforce.com Inc","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017111-013","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.034317},{"date":"2020-06-29","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"SFST","issuer":"Southern First Bancshares, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017111-015","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.134383},{"date":"2020-06-29","filed":"2020-08-07","ticker":"WMT","issuer":"Walmart Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20017111-018","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2020/20017111.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.045447},{"date":"2026-06-15","filed":"2026-07-19","ticker":"SPCX","issuer":"SpaceX","asset_type":"other","direction":"buy","amount":[50001,100000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035042-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035042.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"95% of 19 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.947, 90% Wilson [0.795, 0.988]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.947368,"ci":[0.795041,0.988169],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":19,"lowest_band_share":0.947368,"lowest_band_ci":[0.795041,0.988169],"share_over_50k":0.052632,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":1,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"15 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 4 and trading spans 51% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.273 (identified set [0.081, 0.720]); trade-count HHI 0.075 vs. 95th percentile 0.064 of 19 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.004). Normalized sector entropy 0.51 [0.00, 0.69]. Top three issuers (SPCX, CRM, AMZN) carry at least 20% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":3.659963,"ci":[1.389206,12.42096],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":19,"issuers":15,"hhi_mid":0.273227,"hhi_bounds":[0.080509,0.719836],"n_eff":3.659963,"hhi_count":0.074792,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.063712,"peer_benchmark_p":0.004,"sector_entropy":0.505029,"sector_entropy_ci":[0,0.692179],"top3_share_lower":0.204561,"top3":["SPCX","CRM","AMZN"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"67% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 5.3% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 6.2%).","detail":"Batch-day share 2/3, Wilson [0.25, 0.92]; index of dispersion 10.26 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.053 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.062, p = 0.650.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.666667,"ci":[0.253534,0.921734],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.65,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.999462,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":19,"trade_days":3,"batch_share_trades":0.947368,"batch_day_share":0.666667,"batch_day_ci":[0.253534,0.921734],"dispersion_index":10.257618,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.052632,"proximity_null_mean":0.061913,"proximity_null_p95":0.210526,"proximity_p":0.65,"proximity_nonroutine":0.052632,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 17 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.72% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0272; 90% KP interval [-0.0026, 0.0571]; t_BMP = 1.71, r-bar = 0.022, t_KP = 1.46, Patell Z = 1.45, Corrado Z = 2.12. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0412, 0.0770].","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.027223,"ci":[-0.00264,0.057087],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.082364,"p_holm":0.494184,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.001189},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.062812},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"not_assessed","value":0.010987},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.07701}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":17,"theta":0.027223,"ci":[-0.00264,0.057087],"p":0.082364,"t_kp":1.456025,"rbar":0.021655,"se_cs":0.014581,"se_kp":0.017105,"t_cs":1.867091,"t_bmp":1.708138,"patell_z":1.449964,"corrado_z":2.115766,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.041156,0.07701],"calendar_time":null,"calendar_alpha_ci":[null,null],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":17,"theta":-0.001189,"ci":[-0.027578,0.0252],"p":0.691735,"t_kp":-0.510708,"rbar":0.021655,"se_cs":0.012884,"se_kp":0.015115,"t_cs":-0.092282,"t_bmp":-0.599138,"patell_z":-0.744867,"corrado_z":-0.331655},"21":{"n":17,"theta":0.027223,"ci":[-0.00264,0.057087],"p":0.082364,"t_kp":1.456025,"rbar":0.021655,"se_cs":0.014581,"se_kp":0.017105,"t_cs":1.867091,"t_bmp":1.708138,"patell_z":1.449964,"corrado_z":2.115766},"63":{"n":17,"theta":0.062812,"ci":[-0.014832,0.140456],"p":0.121716,"t_kp":1.211127,"rbar":0.021655,"se_cs":0.037909,"se_kp":0.044473,"t_cs":1.656924,"t_bmp":1.420836,"patell_z":1.587187,"corrado_z":2.631286}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,5.44361],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,5.44361],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,54.647062],"absence_days":48,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"5 of 18 trades (27.8%) were disclosed late; median lag 39 days.","detail":"Late share 0.278, Wilson [0.142, 0.471]; 90th percentile lag 71 days; longest 71 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.277778,"ci":[0.142324,0.471306],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"amendment_rows_excluded":1,"late":5,"late_from_trade":5,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.277778,"late_ci":[0.142324,0.471306],"median_lag":39,"p90_lag":71,"max_lag":71,"filings":1,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":5,"timely_priced":12,"late_priced_dates":1}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"6% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 23% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBA, HSGO; jurisdiction sectors Financials, Real Estate. Dollar share 0.057 (identified set [0.006, 0.316], bootstrap 0.000-0.182); benchmarks S&P 500 0.212, congressional peers 0.232.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.174815,"ci":[-0.231555,-0.049985],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":18,"in_jurisdiction_trades":2,"share":0.05674,"share_bounds":[0.006122,0.315736],"share_ci":[0,0.18157],"benchmark_sp500":0.211881,"benchmark_peers":0.231555,"excess":-0.174815,"excess_ci":[-0.231555,-0.049985],"committees":["HSBA","HSGO"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Financials","Real Estate"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 15 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"2 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 15 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":2,"n_other":15,"events":2150}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2020-06-30 (permutation p = 0.004).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2020-06-30","changepoint_LR":13.123957,"changepoint_p":0.004,"tradeday_rate_before":0.086957,"tradeday_rate_after":0.000643}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 94% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0272, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.027223,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.940299,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"3 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.33, Clopper-Pearson [0.02, 0.86], exact one-sided p = 0.875; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.333333,"ci":[0.016952,0.86465],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.333333,"ci":[0.016952,0.86465],"priced":17,"share_followed":0.176471}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"16% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 29%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.158; circular-shift null mean 0.295, 95th pct 0.526, p = 0.910.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.157895,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.157895,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":19,"cotraded_share":0.157895,"null_mean":0.294524,"null_p95":0.526316,"excess_p":0.91,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.157895,"excess_p_wo_top":0.86}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"95% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +2.72% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR 0.0272 [-0.0026, 0.0571], t_KP = 1.46.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":0.027223,"ci":[-0.00264,0.057087],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.082364,"p_holm":0.494184,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":18,"family_share":0.947368,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":0.027223,"family_ci":[-0.00264,0.057087],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -0.63% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0063 [-0.1041, 0.0915], t_KP = -0.16, over 4 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -0.27% (win rate 50%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.006304,"ci":[-0.104104,0.091495],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.557336,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":4,"share_in_round_trips":0.421053,"priced":4,"realized_mean":-0.002736,"realized_win_rate":0.5,"opening_car":-0.006304,"ci":[-0.104104,0.091495],"p":0.557336,"openings_priced":4}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}