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Common Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030930-154","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030930.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.007987},{"date":"2025-07-11","filed":"2025-08-20","ticker":"WMB","issuer":"Williams Companies, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030930-155","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030930.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.007002}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of 127 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 1.000, 90% Wilson [0.979, 1.000]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":1,"ci":[0.979141,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":127,"lowest_band_share":1,"lowest_band_ci":[0.979141,1],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":6,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"80 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 70 and trading spans 94% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.014 (identified set [0.012, 0.098]); trade-count HHI 0.014 vs. 95th percentile 0.012 of 127 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.004). Normalized sector entropy 0.94 [0.93, 0.96]. Top three issuers (AVGO, ASML, OTIS) carry at least 1% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":70.432314,"ci":[10.206244,80],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":127,"issuers":80,"hhi_mid":0.014198,"hhi_bounds":[0.0125,0.097979],"n_eff":70.432314,"hhi_count":0.014198,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.01209,"peer_benchmark_p":0.004,"sector_entropy":0.94359,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.933669,0.964661],"top3_share_lower":0.005064,"top3":["AVGO","ASML","OTIS"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"43% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 4.7% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 10.4%).","detail":"Batch-day share 3/7, Wilson [0.19, 0.71]; index of dispersion 56.52 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.047 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.104, p = 0.628.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.428571,"ci":[0.186443,0.710523],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.628,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.986857,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":127,"trade_days":7,"batch_share_trades":0.968504,"batch_day_share":0.428571,"batch_day_ci":[0.186443,0.710523],"dispersion_index":56.517774,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.047244,"proximity_null_mean":0.104003,"proximity_null_p95":0.433071,"proximity_p":0.628,"proximity_nonroutine":0.047244,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 123 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.72% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0072; 90% KP interval [-0.0169, 0.0312]; t_BMP = 1.14, r-bar = 0.041, t_KP = 0.45, Patell Z = 1.06, Corrado Z = 2.03. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0565, 0.0765]. Calendar-time alpha 22.71%/yr (NW t = 0.66, 135 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.007164,"ci":[-0.016861,0.031189],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.325937,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.003239},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.006106},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.017027},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.007164},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.076523},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.227085}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":123,"theta":0.007164,"ci":[-0.016861,0.031189],"p":0.325937,"t_kp":0.452274,"rbar":0.041471,"se_cs":0.005765,"se_kp":0.014495,"t_cs":1.242626,"t_bmp":1.137145,"patell_z":1.056998,"corrado_z":2.031718,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.056467,0.076523],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000901,"se":0.001373,"days":135,"t":0.656508,"p_one_sided":0.255749},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001374,0.003176],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":123,"theta":0.003239,"ci":[-0.007971,0.014449],"p":0.285846,"t_kp":0.567094,"rbar":0.041471,"se_cs":0.00269,"se_kp":0.006763,"t_cs":1.20392,"t_bmp":1.425837,"patell_z":1.368229,"corrado_z":1.850159},"21":{"n":123,"theta":0.007164,"ci":[-0.016861,0.031189],"p":0.325937,"t_kp":0.452274,"rbar":0.041471,"se_cs":0.005765,"se_kp":0.014495,"t_cs":1.242626,"t_bmp":1.137145,"patell_z":1.056998,"corrado_z":2.031718},"63":{"n":123,"theta":-0.006106,"ci":[-0.060745,0.048532],"p":0.579949,"t_kp":-0.202194,"rbar":0.041471,"se_cs":0.013111,"se_kp":0.032966,"t_cs":-0.465736,"t_bmp":-0.508373,"patell_z":-0.547843,"corrado_z":0.735522}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 0 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.00, 0.95]; exact one-sided p = 1.000; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 1.000. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"p_exact":1,"p_magnitude":1,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2025-04-10","move":-0.043819,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,0.525115],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,0.525115],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,11.750803],"absence_days":9,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2 of 156 trades (1.3%) were disclosed late; median lag 204 days. Another 85 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.013, Wilson [0.004, 0.038]; 90th percentile lag 328 days; longest 328 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.012821,"ci":[0.004252,0.038],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.557692,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":156,"amendment_rows_excluded":1,"late":2,"late_from_trade":87,"excused_by_notification":85,"late_share":0.012821,"late_ci":[0.004252,0.038],"median_lag":204,"p90_lag":328,"max_lag":328,"filings":1,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":3,"timely_priced":120,"late_priced_dates":2}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"38% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 34% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBA, HSZS; jurisdiction sectors Financials, Real Estate, Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, Semiconductors, Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals. Dollar share 0.377 (identified set [0.039, 0.901], bootstrap 0.315-0.462); benchmarks S&P 500 0.271, congressional peers 0.336.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":0.04112,"ci":[-0.020871,0.126196],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":122,"in_jurisdiction_trades":46,"share":0.377049,"share_bounds":[0.038823,0.900694],"share_ci":[0.315058,0.462126],"benchmark_sp500":0.271287,"benchmark_peers":0.335929,"excess":0.04112,"excess_ci":[-0.020871,0.126196],"committees":["HSBA","HSZS"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Financials","Real Estate","Semiconductor Materials & Equipment","Semiconductors","Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"17 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 2 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","detail":"17 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events, but on only 2 distinct dates; at least 10 dates are needed for a date-clustered comparison.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":17,"n_other":106,"trade_dates":2,"events":2150}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2024-09-27 (permutation p = 0.340).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2024-09-27","changepoint_LR":4.981921,"changepoint_p":0.34,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.029126}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 78% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0072, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.007164,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.783582,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"14 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 9 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.64, Clopper-Pearson [0.39, 0.85], exact one-sided p = 0.212; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.642857,"ci":[0.390415,0.847282],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.211975,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":14,"hits":9,"hit_rate":0.642857,"ci":[0.390415,0.847282],"priced":123,"share_followed":0.113821}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"14% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 21%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.142; circular-shift null mean 0.210, 95th pct 0.371, p = 0.690. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0055, p = 0.657.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.141732,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.656525,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.133858,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":127,"cotraded_share":0.141732,"null_mean":0.210371,"null_p95":0.370866,"excess_p":0.69,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.133858,"excess_p_wo_top":0.74,"cotraded_car":-0.005524,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.036518,0.025471],"cotraded_car_p":0.656525}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +0.08% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0008 [-0.0613, 0.0628], t_KP = 0.23, over 5 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +7.06% (win rate 67%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.000765,"ci":[-0.061278,0.062807],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.414037,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":5,"share_in_round_trips":0.07874,"priced":3,"realized_mean":0.070557,"realized_win_rate":0.666667,"opening_car":0.000765,"ci":[-0.061278,0.062807],"p":0.414037,"openings_priced":5}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-10","event_date":"2025-04-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.38,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}