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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.660377,"ci":[0.547929,0.757248],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":53,"lowest_band_share":0.660377,"lowest_band_ci":[0.547929,0.757248],"share_over_50k":0.09434,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":10,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"22 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 8 and trading spans 58% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.119 (identified set [0.059, 0.259]); trade-count HHI 0.059 vs. 95th percentile 0.024 of 53 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.58 [0.54, 0.65]. Top three issuers (AAPL, APO, AXP) carry at least 23% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":8.38119,"ci":[3.859308,16.911348],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":53,"issuers":22,"hhi_mid":0.119315,"hhi_bounds":[0.059132,0.259114],"n_eff":8.38119,"hhi_count":0.059452,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.023852,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.583308,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.542275,0.654963],"top3_share_lower":0.227707,"top3":["AAPL","APO","AXP"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"30% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 23% of trades look routine; 18.9% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.3%).","detail":"Batch-day share 3/10, Wilson [0.13, 0.56]; index of dispersion 13.90 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.23 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.189 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.073, p = 0.114.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.3,"ci":[0.126877,0.5583],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.114,"p_holm":0.684,"q_bh":0.509437,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":53,"trade_days":10,"batch_share_trades":0.849057,"batch_day_share":0.3,"batch_day_ci":[0.126877,0.5583],"dispersion_index":13.903132,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.226415,"proximity_share":0.188679,"proximity_null_mean":0.073203,"proximity_null_p95":0.228302,"proximity_p":0.114,"proximity_nonroutine":0.243902,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 53 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.16% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0116; 90% KP interval [-0.1184, 0.0952]; t_BMP = -0.56, r-bar = 0.146, t_KP = -0.18, Patell Z = -0.77, Corrado Z = -0.40. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0527, 0.0536]. Calendar-time alpha 26.54%/yr (NW t = 0.42, 210 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.011562,"ci":[-0.118358,0.095234],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.570344,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.013801},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.010109},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.0109},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.011562},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.053636},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.265411}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":53,"theta":-0.011562,"ci":[-0.118358,0.095234],"p":0.570344,"t_kp":-0.178131,"rbar":0.145506,"se_cs":0.020141,"se_kp":0.063771,"t_cs":-0.574056,"t_bmp":-0.564004,"patell_z":-0.773489,"corrado_z":-0.404191,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.052715,0.053636],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.001053,"se":0.002485,"days":210,"t":0.423759,"p_one_sided":0.335871},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.003109,0.005216],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":53,"theta":-0.013801,"ci":[-0.062717,0.035115],"p":0.644563,"t_kp":-0.372716,"rbar":0.145506,"se_cs":0.009225,"se_kp":0.029209,"t_cs":-1.495999,"t_bmp":-1.180104,"patell_z":-1.659408,"corrado_z":-1.268041},"21":{"n":53,"theta":-0.011562,"ci":[-0.118358,0.095234],"p":0.570344,"t_kp":-0.178131,"rbar":0.145506,"se_cs":0.020141,"se_kp":0.063771,"t_cs":-0.574056,"t_bmp":-0.564004,"patell_z":-0.773489,"corrado_z":-0.404191},"63":{"n":53,"theta":0.010109,"ci":[-0.141316,0.161535],"p":0.378569,"t_kp":0.310875,"rbar":0.145506,"se_cs":0.028558,"se_kp":0.09042,"t_cs":0.354001,"t_bmp":0.984302,"patell_z":1.057451,"corrado_z":1.11431}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.05, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.500; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.506. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.5,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":1,"hit_rate":1,"ci":[0.05,1],"p_exact":0.5,"p_magnitude":0.506,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2022-04-29","move":-0.036956,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"9 of 57 trades (15.8%) were disclosed late; median lag 29 days.","detail":"Late share 0.158, Wilson [0.094, 0.253]; 90th percentile lag 222 days; longest 406 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.157895,"ci":[0.094242,0.252552],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":57,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":9,"late_from_trade":9,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.157895,"late_ci":[0.094242,0.252552],"median_lag":29,"p90_lag":221.6,"max_lag":406,"filings":5,"late_filings":3,"late_priced":8,"timely_priced":45,"late_priced_dates":7}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 12% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAG, HSHM; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Agricultural Products & Services, Application Software, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Financial Exchanges & Data, Food Distributors, Packaged Foods & Meats, Systems Software, Timber REITs. Dollar share 0.020 (identified set [0.003, 0.116], bootstrap 0.000-0.055); benchmarks S&P 500 0.117, congressional peers 0.088.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.096871,"ci":[-0.116832,-0.062306],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":52,"in_jurisdiction_trades":5,"share":0.01996,"share_bounds":[0.002828,0.115554],"share_ci":[0,0.054526],"benchmark_sp500":0.116832,"benchmark_peers":0.088067,"excess":-0.096871,"excess_ci":[-0.116832,-0.062306],"committees":["HSAG","HSHM"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Agricultural & Farm Machinery","Agricultural Products & Services","Application Software","Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals","Financial Exchanges & Data","Food Distributors","Packaged Foods & Meats","Systems Software","Timber REITs"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"2 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 51 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"2 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 51 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":2,"n_other":51,"events":1733}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"documentary","summary":"Scrutiny on 2026-08-14 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","detail":"Scrutiny on 2026-08-14 leaves under 60 business days of the member's trading history on one side, too little to compare activity before and after.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Washington Sun: third STOCK Act violation","url":"https://www.washingtonsun.com/money/thanedar-tran-mann-stock-act"}],"stats":{"scrutiny_date":"2026-08-14","changepoint":"2022-04-25","changepoint_LR":7.273541,"changepoint_p":0.116,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.009278}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 25% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0116, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.011562,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.246269,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"15 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 4 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.27, Clopper-Pearson [0.10, 0.51], exact one-sided p = 0.982; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.266667,"ci":[0.096658,0.510752],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.982422,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":15,"hits":4,"hit_rate":0.266667,"ci":[0.096658,0.510752],"priced":53,"share_followed":0.283019}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"34% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 30%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.340; circular-shift null mean 0.305, 95th pct 0.455, p = 0.440. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0502, p = 0.143.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.339623,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.142643,"p_holm":0.713215,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.339623,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":53,"cotraded_share":0.339623,"null_mean":0.304555,"null_p95":0.454717,"excess_p":0.44,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.339623,"excess_p_wo_top":0.43,"cotraded_car":0.050155,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.017996,0.118307],"cotraded_car_p":0.142643}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","detail":"No purchase and sale of the same stock within six months.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":0,"share_in_round_trips":0}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2022-04-29","event_date":"2022-04-29","direction":"sell","move_pct":-3.7,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}