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Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035289-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035289.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001955},{"date":"2026-08-11","filed":"2026-08-20","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035289-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035289.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.031107},{"date":"2026-08-11","filed":"2026-08-20","ticker":"PG","issuer":"Procter & Gamble Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035289-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035289.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.012632},{"date":"2026-08-14","filed":"2026-08-20","ticker":"IBP","issuer":"Installed Building Products, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035289-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035289.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.051156},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-05","ticker":"AEP","issuer":"American Electric Power Company, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035392-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035392.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.003137},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-05","ticker":"AEP","issuer":"American Electric Power Company, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Utilities","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035392-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035392.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.003137},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-05","ticker":"AMGN","issuer":"Amgen Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035392-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035392.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.002532},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-05","ticker":"AMGN","issuer":"Amgen Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035392-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035392.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.002532},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-05","ticker":"AVGO","issuer":"Broadcom Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035392-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035392.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.035502},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-05","ticker":"AVGO","issuer":"Broadcom Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035392-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035392.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.035502},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-05","ticker":"FITB","issuer":"Fifth Third Bancorp - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035392-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035392.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.01539},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-05","ticker":"MSFT","issuer":"Microsoft Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035392-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035392.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.009748},{"date":"2026-08-26","filed":"2026-09-05","ticker":"VRTX","issuer":"Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035392-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035392.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.014531},{"date":"2026-09-08","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"IBP","issuer":"Installed Building Products, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035471-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035471.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.106943},{"date":"2026-09-08","filed":"2026-09-17","ticker":"PG","issuer":"Procter & Gamble Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035471-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035471.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.006913},{"date":"2026-09-22","filed":"2026-10-01","ticker":"AMGN","issuer":"Amgen Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035549-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035549.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.030311},{"date":"2026-09-22","filed":"2026-10-01","ticker":"HD","issuer":"Home Depot, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035549-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035549.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.044411},{"date":"2026-09-22","filed":"2026-10-01","ticker":"HD","issuer":"Home Depot, Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035549-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035549.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.044411},{"date":"2026-09-22","filed":"2026-10-01","ticker":"MPC","issuer":"Marathon Petroleum Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035549-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035549.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009217},{"date":"2026-09-22","filed":"2026-10-01","ticker":"MPC","issuer":"Marathon Petroleum Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035549-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035549.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009217},{"date":"2026-10-09","filed":"2026-10-15","ticker":"T","issuer":"AT&T Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035660-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035660.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.046075},{"date":"2026-10-09","filed":"2026-10-15","ticker":"FITB","issuer":"Fifth Third Bancorp - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035660-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035660.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.007234},{"date":"2026-10-09","filed":"2026-10-15","ticker":"RPM","issuer":"RPM International Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Materials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035660-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035660.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.041634},{"date":"2026-10-12","filed":"2026-10-15","ticker":"PG","issuer":"Procter & Gamble Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20035660-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20035660.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.028255}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"96% of 230 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.961, 90% Wilson [0.934, 0.977]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.96087,"ci":[0.933928,0.977095],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":230,"lowest_band_share":0.96087,"lowest_band_ci":[0.933928,0.977095],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":21,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"30 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 23 and trading spans 87% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.043 (identified set [0.033, 0.224]); trade-count HHI 0.040 vs. 95th percentile 0.008 of 230 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.87 [0.80, 0.92]. Top three issuers (LRCX, IBM, MSFT) carry at least 3% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":23.192286,"ci":[4.471684,29.953027],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":230,"issuers":30,"hhi_mid":0.043118,"hhi_bounds":[0.033386,0.223629],"n_eff":23.192286,"hhi_count":0.04,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.007905,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.874171,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.796854,0.922529],"top3_share_lower":0.030433,"top3":["LRCX","IBM","MSFT"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"51% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 12% of trades look routine; 9.1% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 7.8%).","detail":"Batch-day share 24/47, Wilson [0.39, 0.63]; index of dispersion 9.53 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.12 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.091 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.078, p = 0.342.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.510638,"ci":[0.393431,0.626687],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.342,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.764156,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":230,"trade_days":47,"batch_share_trades":0.830435,"batch_day_share":0.510638,"batch_day_ci":[0.393431,0.626687],"dispersion_index":9.528408,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.121739,"proximity_share":0.091304,"proximity_null_mean":0.078104,"proximity_null_p95":0.117391,"proximity_p":0.342,"proximity_nonroutine":0.089109,"proximity_routine":0.107143}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 226 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.70% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0070; 90% KP interval [-0.0267, 0.0407]; t_BMP = 1.39, r-bar = 0.054, t_KP = 0.37, Patell Z = 1.43, Corrado Z = 1.31. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0704, 0.0753]. Calendar-time alpha 7.37%/yr (NW t = 0.51, 373 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.007024,"ci":[-0.026672,0.040719],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.354031,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.003993},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.019719},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.009427},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.007024},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.07535},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.07366}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":226,"theta":0.007024,"ci":[-0.026672,0.040719],"p":0.354031,"t_kp":0.374935,"rbar":0.05353,"se_cs":0.005495,"se_kp":0.020401,"t_cs":1.278077,"t_bmp":1.391914,"patell_z":1.434784,"corrado_z":1.313863,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.070408,0.07535],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000292,"se":0.000574,"days":373,"t":0.509163,"p_one_sided":0.305319},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000656,0.00124],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":230,"theta":0.003993,"ci":[-0.015134,0.023119],"p":0.394302,"t_kp":0.268437,"rbar":0.05353,"se_cs":0.003094,"se_kp":0.011581,"t_cs":1.290304,"t_bmp":1.004695,"patell_z":1.286138,"corrado_z":1.199532},"21":{"n":226,"theta":0.007024,"ci":[-0.026672,0.040719],"p":0.354031,"t_kp":0.374935,"rbar":0.05353,"se_cs":0.005495,"se_kp":0.020401,"t_cs":1.278077,"t_bmp":1.391914,"patell_z":1.434784,"corrado_z":1.313863},"63":{"n":205,"theta":0.019719,"ci":[-0.04737,0.086808],"p":0.300295,"t_kp":0.524371,"rbar":0.05353,"se_cs":0.011441,"se_kp":0.040602,"t_cs":1.723529,"t_bmp":1.860912,"patell_z":1.895975,"corrado_z":0.944004}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 0 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.00, 0.95]; exact one-sided p = 1.000; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 1.000. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":1,"hits":0,"hit_rate":0,"ci":[0,0.95],"p_exact":1,"p_magnitude":1,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2025-04-03","move":-0.049281,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"12 of 231 trades (5.2%) were disclosed late; median lag 11 days.","detail":"Late share 0.052, Wilson [0.033, 0.082]; 90th percentile lag 24 days; longest 63 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.051948,"ci":[0.0327,0.08157],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":231,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":12,"late_from_trade":12,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.051948,"late_ci":[0.0327,0.08157],"median_lag":11,"p90_lag":24,"max_lag":63,"filings":28,"late_filings":2,"late_priced":12,"timely_priced":214,"late_priced_dates":4}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 12% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSAG, HSPW; jurisdiction sectors Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Agricultural Products & Services, Air Freight & Logistics, Cargo Ground Transportation, Construction & Engineering, Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment, Construction Materials, Environmental & Facilities Services, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Financial Exchanges & Data, Food Distributors, Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines, Packaged Foods & Meats, Passenger Airlines, Passenger Ground Transportation, Rail Transportation, Timber REITs, Water Utilities. Dollar share 0.007 (identified set [0.001, 0.078], bootstrap 0.001-0.033); benchmarks S&P 500 0.125, congressional peers 0.045.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.117725,"ci":[-0.123717,-0.091419],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":230,"in_jurisdiction_trades":2,"share":0.007027,"share_bounds":[0.000536,0.078079],"share_ci":[0.001035,0.033334],"benchmark_sp500":0.124752,"benchmark_peers":0.044654,"excess":-0.117725,"excess_ci":[-0.123717,-0.091419],"committees":["HSAG","HSPW"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Agricultural & Farm Machinery","Agricultural Products & Services","Air Freight & Logistics","Cargo Ground Transportation","Construction & Engineering","Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment","Construction Materials","Environmental & Facilities Services","Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals","Financial Exchanges & Data","Food Distributors","Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Packaged Foods & Meats","Passenger Airlines","Passenger Ground Transportation","Rail Transportation","Timber REITs","Water Utilities"]}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 226 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 226 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":0,"n_other":226,"events":1845}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2026-10-09 (permutation p = 0.298).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2026-10-09","changepoint_LR":5.467269,"changepoint_p":0.298,"tradeday_rate_before":0.102041,"tradeday_rate_after":1}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 77% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0070, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.007024,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.768657,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"45 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 18 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.40, Clopper-Pearson [0.28, 0.53], exact one-sided p = 0.932; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.4,"ci":[0.276826,0.533476],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.932422,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":45,"hits":18,"hit_rate":0.4,"ci":[0.276826,0.533476],"priced":230,"share_followed":0.195652}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"26% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 28%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.261; circular-shift null mean 0.278, 95th pct 0.353, p = 0.580. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0047, p = 0.657.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.26087,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.657494,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.247826,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":230,"cotraded_share":0.26087,"null_mean":0.27769,"null_p95":0.352609,"excess_p":0.58,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.247826,"excess_p_wo_top":0.71,"cotraded_car":-0.004708,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.047631,0.038215],"cotraded_car_p":0.657494}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"55 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.96% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0296 [-0.0082, 0.0675], t_KP = 1.13, over 55 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +6.52% (win rate 80%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.029648,"ci":[-0.008228,0.067524],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.130739,"p_holm":0.91517,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":55,"share_in_round_trips":0.478261,"priced":55,"realized_mean":0.065161,"realized_win_rate":0.8,"opening_car":0.029648,"ci":[-0.008228,0.067524],"p":0.130739,"openings_priced":55}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-03","event_date":"2025-04-03","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.93,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}