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Event-linked size gap Delta_z = -0.20 (within-issuer permutation p = 0.464); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.273469,"ci":[0.229294,0.322594],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.464,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":245,"lowest_band_share":0.273469,"lowest_band_ci":[0.229294,0.322594],"share_over_50k":0.277551,"max_z":1.246711,"size_gap":-0.203038,"size_gap_p":0.464,"event_linked":16,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"64 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 30 and trading spans 75% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.033 (identified set [0.022, 0.062]); trade-count HHI 0.029 vs. 95th percentile 0.008 of 245 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.75 [0.69, 0.81]. Top three issuers (AAPL, NVDA, UPS) carry at least 9% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":30.028159,"ci":[16.005273,45.515587],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":245,"issuers":64,"hhi_mid":0.033302,"hhi_bounds":[0.02197,0.062479],"n_eff":30.028159,"hhi_count":0.028905,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.00755,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.74562,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.687855,0.807577],"top3_share_lower":0.087222,"top3":["AAPL","NVDA","UPS"],"top3_tied_to_events":true}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"37% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 4% of trades look routine; 6.5% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 5.7%).","detail":"Batch-day share 27/73, Wilson [0.28, 0.47]; index of dispersion 6.02 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.04 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.065 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.057, p = 0.338.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.369863,"ci":[0.283131,0.465897],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.338,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.764156,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":245,"trade_days":73,"batch_share_trades":0.689796,"batch_day_share":0.369863,"batch_day_ci":[0.283131,0.465897],"dispersion_index":6.022585,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.036735,"proximity_share":0.065306,"proximity_null_mean":0.05657,"proximity_null_p95":0.106122,"proximity_p":0.338,"proximity_nonroutine":0.067797,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 193 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.07% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0007; 90% KP interval [-0.0429, 0.0416]; t_BMP = -0.22, r-bar = 0.070, t_KP = -0.06, Patell Z = -0.24, Corrado Z = 0.42. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0252, 0.0448]. Calendar-time alpha 24.43%/yr (NW t = 1.12, 355 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.000675,"ci":[-0.042923,0.041574],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.522072,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.002726},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.018131},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":-0.000705},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":null},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.044752},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":0.244257}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":193,"theta":-0.000675,"ci":[-0.042923,0.041574],"p":0.522072,"t_kp":-0.055427,"rbar":0.07002,"se_cs":0.006486,"se_kp":0.025561,"t_cs":-0.104007,"t_bmp":-0.218438,"patell_z":-0.240257,"corrado_z":0.416927,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.025152,0.044752],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":0.000969,"se":0.000867,"days":355,"t":1.117404,"p_one_sided":0.131911},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.000464,0.002403],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":193,"theta":-0.002726,"ci":[-0.023427,0.017975],"p":0.586193,"t_kp":-0.21806,"rbar":0.07002,"se_cs":0.003178,"se_kp":0.012525,"t_cs":-0.857892,"t_bmp":-0.859368,"patell_z":-0.979277,"corrado_z":-0.644936},"21":{"n":193,"theta":-0.000675,"ci":[-0.042923,0.041574],"p":0.522072,"t_kp":-0.055427,"rbar":0.07002,"se_cs":0.006486,"se_kp":0.025561,"t_cs":-0.104007,"t_bmp":-0.218438,"patell_z":-0.240257,"corrado_z":0.416927},"63":{"n":193,"theta":-0.018131,"ci":[-0.096508,0.060246],"p":0.654573,"t_kp":-0.398296,"rbar":0.07002,"se_cs":0.012032,"se_kp":0.04742,"t_cs":-1.506833,"t_bmp":-1.569678,"patell_z":-1.569666,"corrado_z":-1.656389}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"23 of 271 trades (8.5%) were disclosed late; median lag 25 days.","detail":"Late share 0.085, Wilson [0.061, 0.117]; 90th percentile lag 31 days; longest 503 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.084871,"ci":[0.060964,0.116985],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":271,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":23,"late_from_trade":23,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0.084871,"late_ci":[0.060964,0.116985],"median_lag":25,"p90_lag":31,"max_lag":503,"filings":22,"late_filings":3,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":193,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"11% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 29% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees JSTX, SLIN, SSBU, SSEG, SSFI; jurisdiction sectors Aerospace & Defense, Copper, Distillers & Vintners, Energy, Gold, Health Care, Life & Health Insurance, Systems Software, Timber REITs, Tobacco, Utilities. Dollar share 0.114 (identified set [0.047, 0.248], bootstrap 0.074-0.179); benchmarks S&P 500 0.287, congressional peers 0.251.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.172733,"ci":[-0.213539,-0.10824],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":216,"in_jurisdiction_trades":19,"share":0.114395,"share_bounds":[0.047371,0.248125],"share_ci":[0.073589,0.178889],"benchmark_sp500":0.287129,"benchmark_peers":0.251158,"excess":-0.172733,"excess_ci":[-0.213539,-0.10824],"committees":["JSTX","SLIN","SSBU","SSEG","SSFI"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Aerospace & Defense","Copper","Distillers & Vintners","Energy","Gold","Health Care","Life & Health Insurance","Systems Software","Timber REITs","Tobacco","Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 190 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 190 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"n_other":190,"events":2723}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2020-09-24 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2020-09-24","changepoint_LR":185.179751,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0.447154,"tradeday_rate_after":0.014706}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 54% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0007, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.000675,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.544776,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"45 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 30 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.67, Clopper-Pearson [0.53, 0.78], exact one-sided p = 0.018; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.666667,"ci":[0.534062,0.782035],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.017849,"p_holm":0.124942,"q_bh":0.642108,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":45,"hits":30,"hit_rate":0.666667,"ci":[0.534062,0.782035],"priced":196,"share_followed":0.229592}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"18% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 20%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.176; circular-shift null mean 0.203, 95th pct 0.266, p = 0.760. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0023, p = 0.730.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.17551,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.730035,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.163265,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":245,"cotraded_share":0.17551,"null_mean":0.202721,"null_p95":0.266122,"excess_p":0.76,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.163265,"excess_p_wo_top":0.6,"cotraded_car":-0.002269,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.048726,0.044187],"cotraded_car_p":0.730035}},{"id":"T14","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -0.63% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0063 [-0.0474, 0.0348], t_KP = -0.26.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.006314,"ci":[-0.047382,0.034755],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.602447,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.907865,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":206,"family_share":1,"owner_unknown":39,"family_car":-0.006314,"family_ci":[-0.047382,0.034755],"diff":null,"diff_ci":[null,null],"diff_p":null}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"26 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved -0.88% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) -0.0088 [-0.0612, 0.0436], t_KP = -0.34, over 21 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged -1.83% (win rate 40%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.008756,"ci":[-0.061161,0.043648],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.629876,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":26,"share_in_round_trips":0.212245,"priced":20,"realized_mean":-0.018303,"realized_win_rate":0.4,"opening_car":-0.008756,"ci":[-0.061161,0.043648],"p":0.629876,"openings_priced":21}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}