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Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQW000800-20211217-008","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.022927},{"date":"2021-11-18","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":"UN","issuer":"UN","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQW000800-20211217-009","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-11-18","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":"VAIAF","issuer":"VAIAF","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQW000800-20211217-010","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.013575},{"date":"2021-11-18","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":"USB","issuer":"USB","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQW000800-20211217-011","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.000154},{"date":"2021-11-18","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":"GE","issuer":"GE","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQW000800-20211217-012","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.008379},{"date":"2021-11-18","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":"CERN","issuer":"CERN","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQW000800-20211217-013","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-11-18","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":"KUBTY","issuer":"KUBTY","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"SQW000800-20211217-014","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.062241},{"date":"2021-11-18","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":"A","issuer":"A","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"SQW000800-20211217-015","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.044576},{"date":"2021-11-19","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":null,"issuer":"SwedenCare Ab","asset_type":"other","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20019973-015","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019973.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2021-11-26","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":"GE","issuer":"General Electric Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019973-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019973.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.042057},{"date":"2021-11-26","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":"IBM","issuer":"International Business Machines Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019973-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019973.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.032322},{"date":"2021-11-26","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":"UNP","issuer":"Union Pacific Corporation","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20019973-019","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2021/20019973.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.017295},{"date":"2021-11-26","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":"UNP","issuer":"UNP","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQW000800-20211217-001","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.017295},{"date":"2021-11-26","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":"GE","issuer":"GE","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"SQW000800-20211217-002","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.042057},{"date":"2021-11-26","filed":"2021-12-17","ticker":"IBM","issuer":"IBM","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"unknown","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"SQW000800-20211217-003","source":"senate_quiver","source_url":"","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.032322}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"88% of 176 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.875, 90% Wilson [0.828, 0.910]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.875,"ci":[0.828236,0.91041],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":176,"lowest_band_share":0.875,"lowest_band_ci":[0.828236,0.91041],"share_over_50k":0.034091,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":19,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"72 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 13 and trading spans 70% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.079 (identified set [0.022, 0.230]); trade-count HHI 0.017 vs. 95th percentile 0.009 of 176 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.70 [0.56, 0.80]. Top three issuers (RAD, AAL, SVU) carry at least 14% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":12.736012,"ci":[4.348311,46.128001],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":176,"issuers":72,"hhi_mid":0.078518,"hhi_bounds":[0.021679,0.229974],"n_eff":12.736012,"hhi_count":0.017368,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.009362,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.703114,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.562847,0.800141],"top3_share_lower":0.140137,"top3":["RAD","AAL","SVU"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"2% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 10.8% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 3.7%).","detail":"Batch-day share 3/132, Wilson [0.01, 0.06]; index of dispersion 4.52 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.108 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.037, p = 0.012.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.022727,"ci":[0.009119,0.055508],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":true,"p_value":0.012,"p_holm":0.096,"q_bh":0.309833,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":176,"trade_days":132,"batch_share_trades":0.193182,"batch_day_share":0.022727,"batch_day_ci":[0.009119,0.055508],"dispersion_index":4.518638,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.107955,"proximity_null_mean":0.037222,"proximity_null_p95":0.068182,"proximity_p":0.012,"proximity_nonroutine":0.107955,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 123 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.88% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = 0.0088; 90% KP interval [-0.0311, 0.0488]; t_BMP = 0.81, r-bar = 0.073, t_KP = 0.25, Patell Z = 0.93, Corrado Z = -0.03. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0607, 0.0589]. Calendar-time alpha -9.27%/yr (NW t = -0.78, 906 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":0.008813,"ci":[-0.031144,0.048769],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.78142,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.013938},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.019735},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.011362},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":0.011898},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.058944},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.092705}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":123,"theta":0.008813,"ci":[-0.031144,0.048769],"p":0.402836,"t_kp":0.246549,"rbar":0.073352,"se_cs":0.007357,"se_kp":0.024107,"t_cs":1.197799,"t_bmp":0.807853,"patell_z":0.925802,"corrado_z":-0.031436,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.060694,0.058944],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000368,"se":0.000473,"days":906,"t":-0.776999,"p_one_sided":0.78142},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.001153,0.000417],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":123,"theta":0.013938,"ci":[-0.013646,0.041522],"p":0.240982,"t_kp":0.705307,"rbar":0.073352,"se_cs":0.005079,"se_kp":0.016643,"t_cs":2.744219,"t_bmp":2.311042,"patell_z":4.912687,"corrado_z":2.335418},"21":{"n":123,"theta":0.008813,"ci":[-0.031144,0.048769],"p":0.402836,"t_kp":0.246549,"rbar":0.073352,"se_cs":0.007357,"se_kp":0.024107,"t_cs":1.197799,"t_bmp":0.807853,"patell_z":0.925802,"corrado_z":-0.031436},"63":{"n":123,"theta":0.019735,"ci":[-0.046483,0.085953],"p":0.306952,"t_kp":0.505807,"rbar":0.073352,"se_cs":0.012193,"se_kp":0.039952,"t_cs":1.61857,"t_bmp":1.657352,"patell_z":1.725859,"corrado_z":0.691564}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 22 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 10 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.45, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.27, 0.65]; exact one-sided p = 0.738; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.782. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.454545,"ci":[0.271313,0.647456],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.738266,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":22,"hits":10,"hit_rate":0.454545,"ci":[0.271313,0.647456],"p_exact":0.738266,"p_magnitude":0.7816,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2014-07-31","move":-0.019748,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-04-06","move":-0.022286,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-10-10","move":-0.031663,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-12-04","move":-0.032402,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2018-12-26","move":0.050525,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2019-01-04","move":0.033496,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2019-08-05","move":-0.030073,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-24","move":-0.033166,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":3,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-02-25","move":-0.030302,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":3,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-02","move":0.043306,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-03","move":-0.028632,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-04","move":0.042033,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-05","move":-0.033242,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":1,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-09","move":-0.078094,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-10","move":0.051745,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":4,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-11","move":-0.048749,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":4,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-12","move":-0.095677,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":4,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-13","move":0.085486,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":4,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-17","move":0.053992,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":2,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-18","move":-0.050633,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":4,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-03-24","move":0.090603,"dir":-1,"robust":false,"n_trades":3,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2020-04-06","move":0.067166,"dir":-1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":2,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":0,"ci":[0,6.432909],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":0,"rate_ratio_ci":[0,6.432909],"rate_ratio_batchdays":0,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0,8.652681],"absence_days":7,"trades_in_absence":0}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"16 of 299 trades (5.4%) were disclosed late; median lag 21 days. Another 1 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.054, Wilson [0.036, 0.079]; 90th percentile lag 34 days; longest 738 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.053512,"ci":[0.035831,0.0792],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.056856,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":299,"amendment_rows_excluded":1,"late":16,"late_from_trade":17,"excused_by_notification":1,"late_share":0.053512,"late_ci":[0.035831,0.0792],"median_lag":21,"p90_lag":34,"max_lag":738,"filings":78,"late_filings":8,"late_priced":8,"timely_priced":115,"late_priced_dates":7}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"8% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 20% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees SSAF, SSFI, SSJU, SSRA; jurisdiction sectors Agricultural & Farm Machinery, Agricultural Products & Services, Broadline Retail, Distillers & Vintners, Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, Financial Exchanges & Data, Food Distributors, Health Care, Interactive Media & Services, Life & Health Insurance, Packaged Foods & Meats, Pharmaceuticals, Timber REITs, Tobacco. Dollar share 0.077 (identified set [0.012, 0.357], bootstrap 0.038-0.143); benchmarks S&P 500 0.200, congressional peers 0.170.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.12327,"ci":[-0.162049,-0.056708],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":124,"in_jurisdiction_trades":16,"share":0.07673,"share_bounds":[0.011748,0.357093],"share_ci":[0.037951,0.143292],"benchmark_sp500":0.2,"benchmark_peers":0.170446,"excess":-0.12327,"excess_ci":[-0.162049,-0.056708],"committees":["SSAF","SSFI","SSJU","SSRA"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Agricultural & Farm Machinery","Agricultural Products & Services","Broadline Retail","Distillers & Vintners","Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals","Financial Exchanges & Data","Food Distributors","Health Care","Interactive Media & Services","Life & Health Insurance","Packaged Foods & Meats","Pharmaceuticals","Timber REITs","Tobacco"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"6 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 117 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"6 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 117 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":6,"n_other":117,"events":1753}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2014-03-27 (permutation p = 0.002).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2014-03-27","changepoint_LR":65.939337,"changepoint_p":0.002,"tradeday_rate_before":0,"tradeday_rate_after":0.064436}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 80% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw 0.0088, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":0.008813,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.798507,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"34 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 21 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.62, Clopper-Pearson [0.46, 0.76], exact one-sided p = 0.115; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.617647,"ci":[0.462248,0.756895],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.114741,"p_holm":0.803184,"q_bh":0.956171,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":34,"hits":21,"hit_rate":0.617647,"ci":[0.462248,0.756895],"priced":123,"share_followed":0.276423}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"4% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 4%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.040; circular-shift null mean 0.037, 95th pct 0.062, p = 0.500. Co-traded signed CAR 0.0034, p = 0.541.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.039773,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.541107,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.022727,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":176,"cotraded_share":0.039773,"null_mean":0.036903,"null_p95":0.0625,"excess_p":0.5,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.022727,"excess_p_wo_top":0.8,"cotraded_car":0.003406,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.073195,0.080008],"cotraded_car_p":0.541107}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","detail":"1% of trades were in a spouse's or dependent's name; returns not computed for them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":1,"family_share":0.006289,"owner_unknown":17}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"24 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.38% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0238 [-0.0349, 0.0825], t_KP = 0.52, over 16 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +10.96% (win rate 88%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.023811,"ci":[-0.034928,0.082549],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.304534,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":24,"share_in_round_trips":0.272727,"priced":16,"realized_mean":0.109579,"realized_win_rate":0.875,"opening_car":0.023811,"ci":[-0.034928,0.082549],"p":0.304534,"openings_priced":16}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5 option trades (2% of all reported trades); the underlying moved -1.39% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"5 option trades (2% of all reported trades); the underlying moved -1.39% in the trade's favour over a month.","estimate":{"label":"Option-trade signed CAR","value":-0.013942,"ci":[-0.029946,0.002062],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.930673,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.930673,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":5,"option_share":0.016667,"option_car":-0.013942,"option_ci":[-0.029946,0.002062],"option_p":0.930673,"priced":5}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2018-04-06","event_date":"2018-04-06","direction":"sell","move_pct":-2.23,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-10-10","event_date":"2018-10-10","direction":"sell","move_pct":-3.17,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-12-04","event_date":"2018-12-04","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.24,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2018-12-26","event_date":"2018-12-26","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.05,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2019-01-04","event_date":"2019-01-04","direction":"buy","move_pct":3.35,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2019-08-05","event_date":"2019-08-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.01,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-24","event_date":"2020-02-24","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.32,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-02-25","event_date":"2020-02-25","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.03,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-02","event_date":"2020-03-02","direction":"buy","move_pct":4.33,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-03","event_date":"2020-03-03","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.86,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-04","event_date":"2020-03-04","direction":"buy","move_pct":4.2,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-05","event_date":"2020-03-05","direction":"buy","move_pct":-3.32,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-09","event_date":"2020-03-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":-7.81,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-10","event_date":"2020-03-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":5.17,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-11","event_date":"2020-03-11","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.87,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-12","event_date":"2020-03-12","direction":"buy","move_pct":-9.57,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-13","event_date":"2020-03-13","direction":"buy","move_pct":8.55,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-17","event_date":"2020-03-17","direction":"sell","move_pct":5.4,"trade":"2 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-18","event_date":"2020-03-18","direction":"sell","move_pct":-5.06,"trade":"4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-03-24","event_date":"2020-03-24","direction":"sell","move_pct":9.06,"trade":"3 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2020-04-06","event_date":"2020-04-06","direction":"sell","move_pct":6.72,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}