{"id":"W000816","trades":[{"date":"2015-10-21","filed":"2016-08-01","ticker":"GOGO","issuer":"Gogo Inc.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20001144-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2016/20001144.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.119014},{"date":"2015-10-31","filed":"2016-08-01","ticker":"BRK.A","issuer":"Berkshire Hathaway Inc.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20001144-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2016/20001144.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.022218},{"date":"2015-10-31","filed":"2016-08-01","ticker":"CVX","issuer":"Chevron Corporation","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":true,"trade_id":"H20001144-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2016/20001144.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.006909},{"date":"2015-10-31","filed":"2016-08-01","ticker":"PG","issuer":"Procter & Gamble Company","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":true,"trade_id":"H20001144-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2016/20001144.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.003085},{"date":"2015-12-31","filed":"2016-08-01","ticker":"XPOI","issuer":"Xponential, Inc.","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20001144-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2016/20001144.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2019-02-27","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"GE","issuer":"GE Aerospace Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Industrials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-005","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.158515},{"date":"2019-03-01","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-008","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.011752},{"date":"2019-07-10","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"DIS","issuer":"Walt Disney Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-017","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.009506},{"date":"2021-05-13","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"DVN","issuer":"Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Energy","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.004321},{"date":"2021-06-30","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"STLA","issuer":"Stellantis N.V. Common Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-012","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.055194},{"date":"2021-06-30","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"DIS","issuer":"Walt Disney Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-016","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.026956},{"date":"2022-06-22","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"DIS","issuer":"Walt Disney Company","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-015","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.016153},{"date":"2022-06-30","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"GOOG","issuer":"Alphabet Inc. - Class C Capital Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.057763},{"date":"2022-06-30","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"LLY","issuer":"Eli Lilly and Company Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.005849},{"date":"2022-06-30","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"META","issuer":"Meta Platforms, Inc. - Class A Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Communication Services","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-006","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.014009},{"date":"2022-06-30","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"NVDA","issuer":"NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Information Technology","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-007","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.028878},{"date":"2022-06-30","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"SBFM","issuer":"Sunshine Biopharma Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-013","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2022-06-30","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"TFC","issuer":"Truist Financial Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Financials","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-014","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.021614},{"date":"2022-10-25","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":null,"issuer":"Caney Creek Tex Mun Util Dist","asset_type":"bond","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":null,"late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2024-03-01","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"PFE","issuer":"Pfizer, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-010","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.034764},{"date":"2024-03-01","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"PFE","issuer":"Pfizer, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-011","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.034764},{"date":"2024-03-04","filed":"2024-06-12","ticker":"PFE","issuer":"Pfizer, Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"spouse","sector":"Health Care","late":true,"trade_id":"H20025151-009","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2024/20025151.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.103312},{"date":"2025-02-19","filed":"2025-03-01","ticker":null,"issuer":"Caney Creek Texas 2.125% GO Muni bonds","asset_type":"bond","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20027867-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20027867.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":null},{"date":"2025-12-22","filed":"2026-01-15","ticker":"CVX","issuer":"Chevron Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[15001,50000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033783-001","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033783.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.013532},{"date":"2025-12-22","filed":"2026-01-15","ticker":"FANG","issuer":"Diamondback Energy, Inc. - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033783-002","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033783.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.018936},{"date":"2025-12-22","filed":"2026-01-15","ticker":"JPM","issuer":"JP Morgan Chase & Co. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033783-003","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033783.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":-0.006151},{"date":"2025-12-22","filed":"2026-01-15","ticker":"RTX","issuer":"RTX Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"buy","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20033783-004","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2026/20033783.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.019483}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"92% of 25 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.920, 90% Wilson [0.785, 0.973]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.92,"ci":[0.784808,0.973163],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"lowest_band_share":0.92,"lowest_band_ci":[0.784808,0.973163],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":1,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"19 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 9 and trading spans 75% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.110 (identified set [0.053, 0.431]); trade-count HHI 0.066 vs. 95th percentile 0.046 of 25 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.75 [0.73, 0.82]. Top three issuers (CVX, XPOI, DIS) carry at least 11% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":9.130213,"ci":[2.320209,18.995873],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"issuers":19,"hhi_mid":0.109526,"hhi_bounds":[0.052643,0.430996],"n_eff":9.130213,"hhi_count":0.0656,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.0464,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.751993,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.725182,0.815492],"top3_share_lower":0.1066,"top3":["CVX","XPOI","DIS"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"23% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 4.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 4.9%).","detail":"Batch-day share 3/13, Wilson [0.10, 0.46]; index of dispersion 3.08 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.040 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.049, p = 0.642.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.230769,"ci":[0.096232,0.458066],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.642,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.997891,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"trade_days":13,"batch_share_trades":0.52,"batch_day_share":0.230769,"batch_day_ci":[0.096232,0.458066],"dispersion_index":3.083782,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0,"proximity_share":0.04,"proximity_null_mean":0.049058,"proximity_null_p95":0.16,"proximity_p":0.642,"proximity_nonroutine":0.04,"proximity_routine":0}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 23 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 4.55% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0455; 90% KP interval [-0.0799, -0.0110]; t_BMP = -3.30, r-bar = 0.062, t_KP = -2.08, Patell Z = -2.62, Corrado Z = -2.44. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0991, 0.0037]. Calendar-time alpha -24.79%/yr (NW t = -0.66, 185 days).","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.045478,"ci":[-0.07993,-0.011026],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.975418,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":false,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.000135},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.057205},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"does_not_fit","value":-0.043067},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"not_assessed","value":-0.058614},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"does_not_fit","value":0.003711},{"variant":"Calendar-time alpha (annualized)","reading":null,"value":-0.24791}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":23,"theta":-0.045478,"ci":[-0.07993,-0.011026],"p":0.975418,"t_kp":-2.082202,"rbar":0.061739,"se_cs":0.012655,"se_kp":0.020063,"t_cs":-3.593625,"t_bmp":-3.301088,"patell_z":-2.623669,"corrado_z":-2.443447,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.099102,0.003711],"calendar_time":{"alpha_daily":-0.000984,"se":0.001482,"days":185,"t":-0.663823,"p_one_sided":0.746598},"calendar_alpha_ci":[-0.003529,0.001561],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":23,"theta":0.000135,"ci":[-0.030251,0.030521],"p":0.616239,"t_kp":-0.299297,"rbar":0.061739,"se_cs":0.011162,"se_kp":0.017696,"t_cs":0.012098,"t_bmp":-0.4745,"patell_z":-0.624026,"corrado_z":-0.777681},"21":{"n":23,"theta":-0.045478,"ci":[-0.07993,-0.011026],"p":0.975418,"t_kp":-2.082202,"rbar":0.061739,"se_cs":0.012655,"se_kp":0.020063,"t_cs":-3.593625,"t_bmp":-3.301088,"patell_z":-2.623669,"corrado_z":-2.443447},"63":{"n":23,"theta":-0.057205,"ci":[-0.145141,0.030731],"p":0.762323,"t_kp":-0.726229,"rbar":0.061739,"se_cs":0.032302,"se_kp":0.051211,"t_cs":-1.770966,"t_bmp":-1.151352,"patell_z":-1.526015,"corrado_z":-1.267793}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","detail":"No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":0}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 3.75 times the normal rate.","detail":"Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 3.75 times the normal rate.","estimate":{"label":"Absence rate ratio","value":3.746377,"ci":[0.624554,13.126475],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"rate_ratio":3.746377,"rate_ratio_ci":[0.624554,13.126475],"rate_ratio_batchdays":3.405797,"rate_ratio_batchdays_ci":[0.160479,19.186274],"absence_days":69,"trades_in_absence":2}},{"id":"T7","reading":"open_question","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"5 of 27 trades (18.5%) were disclosed late; median lag 596 days. Another 17 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.","detail":"Late share 0.185, Wilson [0.093, 0.335]; 90th percentile lag 1395 days; longest 1932 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0.185185,"ci":[0.093172,0.334544],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates","value":0.814815,"reading":"open_question"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":27,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":5,"late_from_trade":22,"excused_by_notification":17,"late_share":0.185185,"late_ci":[0.093172,0.334544],"median_lag":596,"p90_lag":1395.2,"max_lag":1932,"filings":4,"late_filings":1,"late_priced":4,"timely_priced":19,"late_priced_dates":2}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"10% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 23% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSBA, HSSM; jurisdiction sectors Financials, Real Estate, Regional Banks. Dollar share 0.100 (identified set [0.009, 0.562], bootstrap 0.029-0.209); benchmarks S&P 500 0.212, congressional peers 0.232.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.131781,"ci":[-0.202546,-0.02249],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":24,"in_jurisdiction_trades":3,"share":0.099775,"share_bounds":[0.008507,0.562352],"share_ci":[0.029009,0.209065],"benchmark_sp500":0.211881,"benchmark_peers":0.231555,"excess":-0.131781,"excess_ci":[-0.202546,-0.02249],"committees":["HSBA","HSSM"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Financials","Real Estate","Regional Banks"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 20 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"3 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 20 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":3,"n_other":20,"events":2709}},{"id":"T10","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After scrutiny on 2021-09-22, trading ran at 2.44 times its earlier rate.","detail":"After scrutiny on 2021-09-22, trading ran at 2.44 times its earlier rate. Change point 2015-10-22 (p = 0.062).","estimate":{"label":"Rate ratio after/before","value":2.441787,"ci":[1.092457,5.739527],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"ratio"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[{"title":"Campaign Legal Center complaint to OCE over undisclosed stock trades","url":"https://campaignlegal.org/update/clc-complaints-target-seven-members-who-failed-disclose-stock-trades"}],"stats":{"changepoint":"2015-10-22","changepoint_LR":8.891874,"changepoint_p":0.062,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.004146,"scrutiny_date":"2021-09-22","rate_ratio":2.441787,"rate_ratio_ci":[1.092457,5.739527]}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 6% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0455, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.045478,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.059701,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"5 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.40, Clopper-Pearson [0.08, 0.81], exact one-sided p = 0.812; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.4,"ci":[0.07644,0.810745],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.8125,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":5,"hits":2,"hit_rate":0.4,"ci":[0.07644,0.810745],"priced":23,"share_followed":0.217391}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"12% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 18%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.120; circular-shift null mean 0.183, 95th pct 0.320, p = 0.870. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0152, p = 0.599.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.12,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.599154,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.12,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":25,"cotraded_share":0.12,"null_mean":0.18303,"null_p95":0.32,"excess_p":0.87,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.12,"excess_p_wo_top":0.74,"cotraded_car":-0.015235,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.173012,0.142543],"cotraded_car_p":0.599154}},{"id":"T14","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"80% of trades were in family accounts; those moved -4.27% in the trade's favour over a month.","detail":"Family signed CAR -0.0427 [-0.0802, -0.0052], t_KP = -1.79; family minus self 0.0159 [-0.0050, 0.0449], p = 0.144.","estimate":{"label":"Family-account signed CAR","value":-0.042713,"ci":[-0.080236,-0.00519],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.954912,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.954912,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":20,"family_share":0.8,"owner_unknown":0,"family_car":-0.042713,"family_ci":[-0.080236,-0.00519],"diff":0.015901,"diff_ci":[-0.005015,0.044921],"diff_p":0.144201}},{"id":"T15","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"1 round trips but fewer than three priced.","detail":"1 round trips but fewer than three priced.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":1,"share_in_round_trips":0.08}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}]}