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Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-084","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.134604},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"SHEL","issuer":"Shell PLC American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-085","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.001594},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"SIEGY","issuer":"Siemens AG American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-086","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.045688},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"SCGLY","issuer":"Societe Generale France Sponsored ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-087","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.068272},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"SONY","issuer":"Sony Group Corporation American Depositary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-088","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.002728},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"SPOT","issuer":"Spotify Technology S.A. Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Communication Services","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-089","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.029546},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"SBUX","issuer":"Starbucks Corporation - Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-090","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.012653},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"SU","issuer":"Suncor Energy Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Energy","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-091","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.002358},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"TSM","issuer":"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Information Technology","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-092","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.033507},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"TMO","issuer":"Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-093","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.029377},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"TOELY","issuer":"Tokyo Electron Ltd Unsponsored ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-094","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.044744},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"TM","issuer":"Toyota Motor Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Discretionary","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-095","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.048765},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"UBS","issuer":"UBS Group AG Registered Ordinary Shares","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-096","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.027787},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"UNCRY","issuer":"UNICREDITO SPA UNSP/ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-097","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.03966},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"UL","issuer":"Unilever PLC Common Stock","asset_type":"unknown","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-098","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.021808},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"UNP","issuer":"Union Pacific Corporation Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Industrials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-099","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":true,"car_5":0.052148},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"UNH","issuer":"UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Health Care","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-100","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.029942},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"VCISY","issuer":"Vinci SA ADR","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":null,"late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-101","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.021303},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"V","issuer":"Visa Inc.","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Financials","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-102","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":-0.010132},{"date":"2025-04-21","filed":"2025-05-12","ticker":"WMT","issuer":"Walmart Inc. Common Stock","asset_type":"stock","direction":"sell","amount":[1001,15000],"owner":"self","sector":"Consumer Staples","late":false,"trade_id":"H20030332-103","source":"house_clerk","source_url":"https://disclosures-clerk.house.gov/public_disc/ptr-pdfs/2025/20030332.pdf","in_jurisdiction":false,"car_5":0.005402}],"tests":[{"id":"T1","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"96% of 211 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.","detail":"Lowest-band share 0.962, 90% Wilson [0.934, 0.979]. Event-linked size gap Delta_z = 0.00 (within-issuer permutation p = 1.000); 0 event-linked trades with z > 3 in bands of $50,001 or more.","estimate":{"label":"Lowest-band share","value":0.962085,"ci":[0.933964,0.978507],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":1,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":211,"lowest_band_share":0.962085,"lowest_band_ci":[0.933964,0.978507],"share_over_50k":0,"max_z":0,"size_gap":0,"size_gap_p":1,"event_linked":22,"event_linked_outliers":0}},{"id":"T2","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"98 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 54 and trading spans 86% of maximum sector diversity.","detail":"Dollar HHI 0.019 (identified set [0.010, 0.119]); trade-count HHI 0.011 vs. 95th percentile 0.008 of 211 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.86 [0.79, 0.88]. Top three issuers (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA) carry at least 3% of dollar volume.","estimate":{"label":"Effective number of issuers","value":53.828058,"ci":[8.408038,97.757422],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"count"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":211,"issuers":98,"hhi_mid":0.018578,"hhi_bounds":[0.010229,0.118934],"n_eff":53.828058,"hhi_count":0.010534,"peer_benchmark_p95":0.008293,"peer_benchmark_p":0.002,"sector_entropy":0.861488,"sector_entropy_ci":[0.787724,0.884831],"top3_share_lower":0.02869,"top3":["AAPL","MSFT","NVDA"],"top3_tied_to_events":false}},{"id":"T3","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"75% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 45% of trades look routine; 10.4% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 13.3%).","detail":"Batch-day share 6/8, Wilson [0.46, 0.91]; index of dispersion 72.69 (chi-square p = 0); routine share 0.45 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.104 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.133, p = 0.428.","estimate":{"label":"Batch-day share","value":0.75,"ci":[0.460153,0.913485],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.428,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.827081,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":211,"trade_days":8,"batch_share_trades":0.990521,"batch_day_share":0.75,"batch_day_ci":[0.460153,0.913485],"dispersion_index":72.693703,"dispersion_p":0,"routine_share":0.454976,"proximity_share":0.104265,"proximity_null_mean":0.133081,"proximity_null_p95":0.341232,"proximity_p":0.428,"proximity_nonroutine":0.130435,"proximity_routine":0.072917}},{"id":"T4","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Across 210 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.23% against the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.","detail":"Mean signed CAR(1,21) = -0.0023; 90% KP interval [-0.0295, 0.0249]; t_BMP = -0.68, r-bar = 0.047, t_KP = -0.20, Patell Z = -0.63, Corrado Z = -1.45. Dollar-weighted identified set [-0.0610, 0.0676].","estimate":{"label":"Mean signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002314,"ci":[-0.029521,0.024892],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.579143,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.982752,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Horizon 5 days","reading":"open_question","value":-0.00378},{"variant":"Horizon 63 days","reading":"open_question","value":0.009105},{"variant":"Excluding largest batch date","reading":"open_question","value":0.002106},{"variant":"Self-owned accounts only","reading":"open_question","value":-0.002314},{"variant":"Dollar-weighted (bounds)","reading":"open_question","value":0.067579}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":210,"theta":-0.002314,"ci":[-0.029521,0.024892],"p":0.579143,"t_kp":-0.199951,"rbar":0.04734,"se_cs":0.00487,"se_kp":0.016467,"t_cs":-0.475294,"t_bmp":-0.676159,"patell_z":-0.625292,"corrado_z":-1.450414,"dollar_weighted_bounds":[-0.060971,0.067579],"calendar_time":null,"calendar_alpha_ci":[null,null],"by_horizon":{"5":{"n":211,"theta":-0.00378,"ci":[-0.021672,0.014112],"p":0.642866,"t_kp":-0.366626,"rbar":0.04734,"se_cs":0.003196,"se_kp":0.01083,"t_cs":-1.182813,"t_bmp":-1.242484,"patell_z":-1.630173,"corrado_z":-1.659606},"21":{"n":210,"theta":-0.002314,"ci":[-0.029521,0.024892],"p":0.579143,"t_kp":-0.199951,"rbar":0.04734,"se_cs":0.00487,"se_kp":0.016467,"t_cs":-0.475294,"t_bmp":-0.676159,"patell_z":-0.625292,"corrado_z":-1.450414},"63":{"n":211,"theta":0.009105,"ci":[-0.037909,0.05612],"p":0.388064,"t_kp":0.284735,"rbar":0.04734,"se_cs":0.008397,"se_kp":0.028457,"t_cs":1.084366,"t_bmp":0.964958,"patell_z":0.857105,"corrado_z":1.788466}}}},{"id":"T5","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"Before 5 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times.","detail":"Hit rate 0.20, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.01, 0.66]; exact one-sided p = 0.969; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.685. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.2,"ci":[0.010206,0.657408],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.96875,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n_episodes":5,"hits":1,"hit_rate":0.2,"ci":[0.010206,0.657408],"p_exact":0.96875,"p_magnitude":0.6851,"episodes":[{"event_date":"2025-03-10","move":-0.026636,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":87,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-03","move":-0.049281,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":6,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-04","move":-0.058543,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":1,"post_news_trades":6,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-09","move":0.105019,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":7,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"},{"event_date":"2025-04-10","move":-0.043819,"dir":1,"robust":true,"n_trades":6,"post_news_trades":0,"kind":"market"}]}},{"id":"T6","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"not_computed","summary":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","detail":"No documentary record of trading arrangements or absence periods was available.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{}},{"id":"T7","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"0 of 213 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 27 days.","detail":"Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.013]; 90th percentile lag 44 days; longest 44 days.","estimate":{"label":"Late share","value":0,"ci":[0,0.012543],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":213,"amendment_rows_excluded":0,"late":0,"late_from_trade":0,"excused_by_notification":0,"late_share":0,"late_ci":[0,0.012543],"median_lag":27,"p90_lag":44,"max_lag":44,"filings":2,"late_filings":0,"late_priced":0,"timely_priced":210,"late_priced_dates":0}},{"id":"T8","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"8% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 10% for a comparable benchmark.","detail":"Committees HSII, HSPW; jurisdiction sectors Air Freight & Logistics, Cargo Ground Transportation, Construction & Engineering, Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment, Construction Materials, Copper, Environmental & Facilities Services, Gold, Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines, Integrated Oil & Gas, Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, Passenger Airlines, Passenger Ground Transportation, Rail Transportation, Timber REITs, Water Utilities. Dollar share 0.078 (identified set [0.007, 0.490], bootstrap 0.024-0.110); benchmarks S&P 500 0.103, congressional peers 0.051.","estimate":{"label":"Jurisdiction excess share","value":-0.025182,"ci":[-0.079444,0.006695],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":170,"in_jurisdiction_trades":17,"share":0.077788,"share_bounds":[0.006565,0.49024],"share_ci":[0.023527,0.109665],"benchmark_sp500":0.10297,"benchmark_peers":0.051028,"excess":-0.025182,"excess_ci":[-0.079444,0.006695],"committees":["HSII","HSPW"],"jurisdiction_sectors":["Air Freight & Logistics","Cargo Ground Transportation","Construction & Engineering","Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment","Construction Materials","Copper","Environmental & Facilities Services","Gold","Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Integrated Oil & Gas","Oil & Gas Exploration & Production","Passenger Airlines","Passenger Ground Transportation","Rail Transportation","Timber REITs","Water Utilities"],"regression_error":"Error evaluating factor: TypeError: 'module' object is not callable\n    y ~ J + C(sector) + C(month)\n            ^^^^^^^^^","gamma1":null,"gamma1_ci":[null,null],"gamma1_p":null}},{"id":"T9","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"7 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 203 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","detail":"7 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 203 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":7,"n_other":203,"events":5247}},{"id":"T10","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.","detail":"No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2025-03-05 (permutation p = 0.392).","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"changepoint":"2025-03-05","changepoint_LR":3.250026,"changepoint_p":0.392,"tradeday_rate_before":1,"tradeday_rate_after":0.176471}},{"id":"T11","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"After adjusting for noise, the member's trades rank at the 49% percentile of 134 members (shrunk estimate -0.28% per trade over a month).","detail":"Empirical Bayes: raw -0.0023, posterior -0.0028 (sd 0.0015); Congress mean -0.0028, between-member variance 0.000000.","estimate":{"label":"Shrunk signed 21-day CAR","value":-0.002769,"ci":[-0.005272,-0.000265],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"raw":-0.002314,"posterior_mean":-0.002769,"posterior_sd":0.001522,"congress_mean":-0.002769,"tau2":0,"percentile":0.492537,"members_compared":134,"lower95":-0.005752}},{"id":"T12","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"42 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 21 were on the profitable side.","detail":"Hit rate 0.50, Clopper-Pearson [0.36, 0.64], exact one-sided p = 0.561; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.","estimate":{"label":"Hit rate","value":0.5,"ci":[0.364552,0.635448],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.561193,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":1,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":42,"hits":21,"hit_rate":0.5,"ci":[0.364552,0.635448],"priced":211,"share_followed":0.199052}},{"id":"T13","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"statistical","summary":"28% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 32%).","detail":"Co-traded share 0.280; circular-shift null mean 0.322, 95th pct 0.427, p = 0.680. Co-traded signed CAR -0.0042, p = 0.675.","estimate":{"label":"Co-traded share","value":0.279621,"ci":null,"ci_level":null,"unit":"share"},"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":0.674754,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.902015,"robust":true,"robustness":[{"variant":"Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index","value":0.279621,"reading":"does_not_fit"}],"sources":[],"stats":{"n":211,"cotraded_share":0.279621,"null_mean":0.322227,"null_p95":0.42654,"excess_p":0.68,"cotraded_share_wo_top":0.279621,"excess_p_wo_top":0.54,"cotraded_car":-0.004237,"cotraded_car_ci":[-0.030222,0.021749],"cotraded_car_p":0.674754}},{"id":"T14","reading":"not_assessed","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","detail":"No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"family_trades":0,"owner_unknown":0}},{"id":"T15","reading":"open_question","evidence":"statistical","summary":"97 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +0.10% in the trade's favour relative to the market.","detail":"Opening-trade signed CAR(1,21) 0.0010 [-0.0299, 0.0320], t_KP = 0.04, over 97 priced openings. Realized market-adjusted return to the closing trade averaged +2.46% (win rate 58%); it is shown for context only because exit timing is chosen after the fact.","estimate":{"label":"Opening-trade signed 21-day CAR","value":0.001037,"ci":[-0.029937,0.032011],"ci_level":0.9,"unit":"return"},"power_limited":true,"screen":false,"p_value":0.484942,"p_holm":1,"q_bh":0.998506,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"round_trips":97,"share_in_round_trips":0.919431,"priced":97,"realized_mean":0.024577,"realized_win_rate":0.57732,"opening_car":0.001037,"ci":[-0.029937,0.032011],"p":0.484942,"openings_priced":97}},{"id":"T16","reading":"does_not_fit","evidence":"descriptive","summary":"No option trades were reported.","detail":"No option trades were reported.","estimate":null,"power_limited":false,"screen":false,"p_value":null,"p_holm":null,"q_bh":null,"robust":null,"robustness":[],"sources":[],"stats":{"option_trades":0,"option_share":0}}],"episodes":[{"title":"Market move on 2025-03-10","event_date":"2025-03-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-2.66,"trade":"87 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-03","event_date":"2025-04-03","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.93,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-04","event_date":"2025-04-04","direction":"buy","move_pct":-5.85,"trade":"1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-09","event_date":"2025-04-09","direction":"buy","move_pct":10.5,"trade":"7 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Right way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null},{"title":"Market move on 2025-04-10","event_date":"2025-04-10","direction":"buy","move_pct":-4.38,"trade":"6 trade(s) in the prior five trading days","verdict":"Wrong way","event":"S&P 500 (SPY) daily move","source_url":null}]}