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T15 · Control and behavior

Short-swing round trips

Does the member buy and sell the same stock within six months, and do those round trips beat the market?

What would look suspicious

Short-horizon round trips capture a temporary informational edge.

Statistic

Round-trip share; signed 21-day CAR of the opening trades (realized round-trip return shown for context)

θ^15=1K∑kdopen,k CARopen,k(1,21)\hat\theta_{15}=\frac1K\sum_k d_{\text{open},k}\,\mathrm{CAR}_{\text{open},k}(1,21)

Inference

Kolari-Pynnonen adjusted test on the opening trades

Decision rule

Fits if opening trades earn significantly positive signed returns after adjustment. Does not fit if there are no round trips or the upper bound is below the margin. Otherwise open question.

Equivalence margin δ

0.5% per trade over 21 days (fixed before seeing the data)

Inputs

tradesdaily returns

Limitations

Amounts are bands, so partial sales cannot be matched to purchases exactly.

Full derivation and algorithm: technical methodology (PDF), section T15.

Results across members

Fits patternOpen questionDoes not fitNot assessedScreening signal

0 fits · 30 open question · 46 do not fit · 170 not assessed (including 45 inconclusive for too few trades). 2 open questions are screening signals (unadjusted p below 0.05).

Distribution of member estimates (84 members)
−17.22%margin +0.50%+23.07%

Highest estimates

0δEstimate
Kathy Castor+23.07%
Debbie Wasserman Schultz+20.53%
Brian J. Mast+14.80%
Dan Sullivan+7.06%
Austin Scott+6.35%
Cleo Fields+5.42%
Scott Franklin+4.92%
Bill Cassidy+3.90%
Tim Moore+3.45%
John R. Curtis+3.40%
David J. Taylor+2.96%
Shelley Moore Capito+2.93%

Members flagged by this test

MemberReadingEstimateHolm pSummary
John R. Curtis
Sen. · R-UT
Screening signal+3.40%0.37036 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +3.40% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Bill Cassidy
Sen. · R-LA
Screening signal+3.90%0.37215 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +3.90% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Shelley Moore Capito
Sen. · R-WV
Open question+2.93%0.46829 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.93% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Brian J. Mast
Rep. · R-FL-21
Open question+14.80%0.51725 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +14.80% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz
Rep. · D-FL-25
Open question+20.53%0.72913 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +20.53% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Scott Franklin
Rep. · R-FL-18
Open question+4.92%0.76316 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +4.92% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
David J. Taylor
Rep. · R-OH-2
Open question+2.96%0.91555 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.96% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Alan Armstrong
Sen. · R-OK
Open question+2.04%1.0005 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.04% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Donald S. Beyer, Jr.
Rep. · D-VA-8
Open question+0.86%1.000186 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +0.86% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Kathy Castor
Rep. · D-FL-14
Open question+23.07%1.0007 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +23.07% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Suzan K. DelBene
Rep. · D-WA-1
Open question+2.01%1.00041 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.01% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Ron Estes
Rep. · R-KS-4
Open question+2.72%1.0005 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.72% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Cleo Fields
Rep. · D-LA-6
Open question+5.42%1.00012 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +5.42% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Lois Frankel
Rep. · D-FL-22
Open question+0.99%1.000119 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +0.99% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
John W. Hickenlooper
Sen. · D-CO
Open question+1.67%1.00027 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +1.67% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Julie Johnson
Rep. · D-TX-32
Open question+1.54%1.00098 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +1.54% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
David P. Joyce
Rep. · R-OH-14
Open question+2.79%1.0005 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.79% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
John B. Larson
Rep. · D-CT-1
Open question+1.28%1.0006 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +1.28% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Zoe Lofgren
Rep. · D-CA-18
Open question+1.20%1.00014 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +1.20% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Richard McCormick
Rep. · R-GA-7
Open question+2.73%1.00018 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.73% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Tim Moore
Rep. · R-NC-14
Open question+3.45%1.00048 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +3.45% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Jerry Moran
Sen. · R-KS
Open question+1.44%1.00017 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +1.44% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Dan Newhouse
Rep. · R-WA-4
Open question+2.89%1.0003 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.89% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Nancy Pelosi
Rep. · D-CA-11
Open question+1.03%1.00017 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +1.03% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Jack Reed
Sen. · D-RI
Open question+2.89%1.0007 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.89% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Maria Elvira Salazar
Rep. · R-FL-27
Open question+2.33%1.00035 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.33% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Austin Scott
Rep. · R-GA-8
Open question+6.35%1.00028 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +6.35% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Pete Sessions
Rep. · R-TX-17
Open question+0.70%1.00020 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +0.70% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Dan Sullivan
Sen. · R-AK
Open question+7.06%1.0004 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +7.06% in the trade's favour relative to the market.
Peter Welch
Sen. · D-VT
Open question+2.38%1.00024 buy-and-sell round trips within six months; in the month after opening, those positions moved +2.38% in the trade's favour relative to the market.