T14 · Control and behavior

Family-account trades

Do trades in a spouse's or dependent's name do better than the member's own?

What would look suspicious

Routing informed trades through family accounts.

Statistic

Family-account signed CAR and its difference from self-account trades

\Delta_{14}=\theta_4^{\text{family}}-\theta_4^{\text{self}}

Inference

Kolari-Pynnonen test on family trades; date-clustered bootstrap of the difference

Decision rule

Fits if family-account returns are significantly positive and above self-account returns. Does not fit if family-account returns are bounded below the margin. Otherwise open question.

Equivalence margin δ

0.5% per trade over 21 days (fixed before seeing the data)

Inputs

trades with ownerdaily returns

Limitations

Many spouses are professionals who trade on their own account.

Full derivation and algorithm: technical methodology (PDF), section T14.

Results across members

Fits patternOpen questionDoes not fitNot assessedScreening signal

0 fits · 15 open question · 2 do not fit · 229 not assessed (including 40 inconclusive for too few trades). 1 open question is a screening signal (unadjusted p below 0.05).

Distribution of member estimates (57 members)

−8.05%margin +0.50%+8.17%

Highest estimates

0δEstimate

Laurel M. Lee+8.17%

Debbie Wasserman Schultz+3.72%

Angus S. King, Jr.+3.36%

Sheri Biggs+2.96%

William R. Timmons IV+2.72%

Ashley Hinson+2.60%

Maria Elvira Salazar+2.54%

Robert E. Latta+2.09%

Scott Franklin+1.70%

Carol D. Miller+1.51%

Mitch McConnell+1.29%

Dan Newhouse+0.75%

Members flagged by this test

Member	Reading	Estimate	Holm p	Summary
Angus S. King, Jr. Sen. · I-ME	Screening signal	+3.36%	0.216	100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +3.36% in the trade's favour over a month.
William R. Timmons IV Rep. · R-SC-4	Open question	+2.72%	0.494	95% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +2.72% in the trade's favour over a month.
Scott Franklin Rep. · R-FL-18	Open question	+1.70%	0.763	26% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +1.70% in the trade's favour over a month.
Sheri Biggs Rep. · R-SC-3	Open question	+2.96%	1.000	100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +2.96% in the trade's favour over a month.
Ed Case Rep. · D-HI-1	Open question	+0.55%	1.000	58% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +0.55% in the trade's favour over a month.
Ashley Hinson Rep. · R-IA-2	Open question	+2.60%	1.000	100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +2.60% in the trade's favour over a month.
Robert E. Latta Rep. · R-OH-5	Open question	+2.09%	1.000	100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +2.09% in the trade's favour over a month.
Laurel M. Lee Rep. · R-FL-15	Open question	+8.17%	1.000	100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +8.17% in the trade's favour over a month.
Michael T. McCaul Rep. · R-TX-10	Open question	+0.54%	1.000	75% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +0.54% in the trade's favour over a month.
Mitch McConnell Sen. · R-KY	Open question	+1.29%	1.000	100% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +1.29% in the trade's favour over a month.
Morgan McGarvey Rep. · D-KY-3	Open question	+0.50%	1.000	88% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +0.50% in the trade's favour over a month.
Carol D. Miller Rep. · R-WV-1	Open question	+1.51%	1.000	57% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +1.51% in the trade's favour over a month.
Dan Newhouse Rep. · R-WA-4	Open question	+0.75%	1.000	71% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +0.75% in the trade's favour over a month.
Maria Elvira Salazar Rep. · R-FL-27	Open question	+2.54%	1.000	13% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +2.54% in the trade's favour over a month.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz Rep. · D-FL-25	Open question	+3.72%	1.000	90% of trades were in family accounts; those moved +3.72% in the trade's favour over a month.