T6 · Control and behavior

Control and independence

Does the member direct the trades, and does trading change when the member's access to information changes?

What would look suspicious

The person holding the information directs the trade.

Statistic

Documentary record of discretion; rate ratio of trading during absence versus presence

\hat\rho_6=\frac{Y_A/T_A}{Y_{A^c}/T_{A^c}}

Inference

Exact conditional binomial interval for the Poisson rate ratio

Decision rule

Does not fit if discretion lies with others and the rate ratio interval includes one. Fits if the member directs trades and T4 or T5 fits. Otherwise open question.

Inputs

arrangementsabsence periodstrades

Limitations

Requires a documentary record that exists for few members; stated arrangements are not audited. Absence periods (runs of two or more voting days with every House roll call missed) are reported as context, but without an arrangement record the test is not assessed.

Full derivation and algorithm: technical methodology (PDF), section T6.

Results across members

Fits patternOpen questionDoes not fitNot assessedScreening signal

0 fits · 2 open question · 5 do not fit · 239 not assessed

Distribution of member estimates (90 members)

0.009.48

Highest estimates

0Estimate

W. Gregory Steube9.48

Neal P. Dunn9.27

Pete Sessions8.07

Suzan K. DelBene6.70

Brian J. Mast5.56

Jared Moskowitz4.82

Austin Scott3.96

Roger Marshall3.85

Tammy Duckworth3.79

Roger Williams3.75

Thomas H. Kean, Jr.3.03

Byron Donalds2.98

Members flagged by this test

Member	Reading	Estimate	Holm p	Summary
Michael Guest Rep. · R-MS-3	Open question	0.00	–	Trading arrangement: discretion with an adviser or trustee; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.
Thomas H. Kean, Jr. Rep. · R-NJ-7	Open question	3.03	–	Trading arrangement: discretion with an adviser or trustee; trading during absence ran at 3.03 times the normal rate.