T5 · Timing
Direction before market-wide shocks
Before the market's biggest moves, did the member's trades point the right way?
What would look suspicious
An informed trader's trades just before a market-moving event point in the direction of the coming move.
Statistic
Hit rate over episodes (net dollar direction in the five trading days before each shock)
Inference
Exact binomial test, Clopper-Pearson interval, sign-flip permutation of the magnitude-weighted statistic
Decision rule
Fits if the one-sided exact p-value is significant after Holm and BH adjustment. Does not fit if the hit rate is below one half and T4 does not fit. Otherwise open question.
Equivalence margin δ
10 points above a coin flip (fixed before seeing the data)
Inputs
tradesbenchmark returnsdocumented episodes (optional)
Limitations
Few market-wide shocks fall within any one member's trading; most members have small episode counts.
Full derivation and algorithm: technical methodology (PDF), section T5.
Results across members
Fits patternOpen questionDoes not fitNot assessedScreening signal
0 fits · 43 open question · 51 do not fit · 152 not assessed (including 20 inconclusive for too few trades)
0.0%margin 10.0%100.0%
Highest estimates
0δEstimate
Members flagged by this test
| Member | Reading | Estimate | Holm p | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl L. "Buddy" Carter Rep. · R-GA-1 | Open question | 100.0% | 0.125 | Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 3 times. |
| Lance Gooden Rep. · R-TX-5 | Open question | 100.0% | 0.500 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Austin Scott Rep. · R-GA-8 | Open question | 100.0% | 0.500 | Before 4 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 4 times. |
| Ann Wagner Rep. · R-MO-2 | Open question | 100.0% | 0.500 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Lois Frankel Rep. · D-FL-22 | Open question | 63.9% | 0.530 | Before 36 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 23 times. |
| Josh Gottheimer Rep. · D-NJ-5 | Open question | 61.2% | 0.533 | Before 49 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 30 times. |
| David Rouzer Rep. · R-NC-7 | Open question | 100.0% | 0.750 | Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 3 times. |
| Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr. Rep. · R-PA-8 | Open question | 75.0% | 1.000 | Before 4 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 3 times. |
| Bill Cassidy Sen. · R-LA | Open question | 63.6% | 1.000 | Before 11 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 7 times. |
| Katherine M. Clark Rep. · D-MA-5 | Open question | 62.5% | 1.000 | Before 8 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 5 times. |
| Christopher A. Coons Sen. · D-DE | Open question | 66.7% | 1.000 | Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times. |
| Ted Cruz Sen. · R-TX | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Pat Fallon Rep. · R-TX-4 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Robert Garcia Rep. · D-CA-42 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Bill Hagerty Sen. · R-TN | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| John W. Hickenlooper Sen. · D-CO | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Val T. Hoyle Rep. · D-OR-4 | Open question | 66.7% | 1.000 | Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times. |
| John James Rep. · R-MI-10 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Julie Johnson Rep. · D-TX-32 | Open question | 80.0% | 1.000 | Before 5 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 4 times. |
| William R. Keating Rep. · D-MA-9 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 2 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times. |
| Angus S. King, Jr. Sen. · I-ME | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 2 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times. |
| Greg Landsman Rep. · D-OH-1 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| John B. Larson Rep. · D-CT-1 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 2 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times. |
| Susie Lee Rep. · D-NV-3 | Open question | 60.9% | 1.000 | Before 23 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 14 times. |
| Julia Letlow Rep. · R-LA-5 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Morgan McGarvey Rep. · D-KY-3 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Blake D. Moore Rep. · R-UT-1 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Jared Moskowitz Rep. · D-FL-23 | Open question | 66.7% | 1.000 | Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times. |
| Dan Newhouse Rep. · R-WA-4 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Eleanor Holmes Norton Rep. · D-DC-0 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Scott H. Peters Rep. · D-CA-50 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Michael A. Rulli Rep. · R-OH-6 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Robert C. "Bobby" Scott Rep. · D-VA-3 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 2 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times. |
| Michael K. Simpson Rep. · R-ID-2 | Open question | 75.0% | 1.000 | Before 4 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 3 times. |
| Tina Smith Sen. · D-MN | Open question | 66.7% | 1.000 | Before 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 2 times. |
| Lloyd Smucker Rep. · R-PA-11 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Dan Sullivan Sen. · R-AK | Open question | 80.0% | 1.000 | Before 5 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 4 times. |
| Thomas R. Suozzi Rep. · D-NY-3 | Open question | 63.6% | 1.000 | Before 22 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 14 times. |
| Shri Thanedar Rep. · D-MI-13 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Tommy Tuberville Sen. · R-AL | Open question | 71.4% | 1.000 | Before 7 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 5 times. |
| Tim Walberg Rep. · R-MI-5 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |
| Sheldon Whitehouse Sen. · D-RI | Open question | 64.0% | 1.000 | Before 25 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 16 times. |
| George Whitesides Rep. · D-CA-27 | Open question | 100.0% | 1.000 | Before 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 1 times. |