An independent review of public financial disclosures. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the U.S. House, the U.S. Senate, or any government agency.
Seal of the U.S. House of RepresentativesSeal of the U.S. SenateCongress Trading ReviewStock trades of the U.S. House and Senate
T1 · Size and breadth

Trade size

Are the member's trades unusually large, especially just before news?

What would look suspicious

Informed trades are large relative to the trader's normal activity, because the profit from an informational edge scales with position size.

Statistic

Lowest-band share; robust size score z; event-linked size gap (event-linked minus other mean z)

zi=ln⁡v~i−med⁡(ln⁡v~)1.4826 MAD⁡(ln⁡v~),Δz=zˉE=1−zˉE=0z_i=\frac{\ln\tilde v_i-\operatorname{med}(\ln\tilde v)}{1.4826\,\operatorname{MAD}(\ln\tilde v)},\quad \Delta_z=\bar z_{E=1}-\bar z_{E=0}

Inference

Wilson interval for the lowest-band share; within-issuer permutation test for the size gap

Decision rule

Fits if the size gap is significantly positive after Holm and BH adjustment. Does not fit if the lower bound of the lowest-band share is above one half and no event-linked trade is a size outlier. Otherwise open question.

Inputs

tradesfirm events from daily returns

Limitations

Bands are wide; wealthy members trade larger amounts for reasons unrelated to information.

Full derivation and algorithm: technical methodology (PDF), section T1.

Results across members

Fits patternOpen questionDoes not fitNot assessedScreening signal

0 fits · 43 open question · 100 do not fit · 103 not assessed

Distribution of member estimates (143 members)
0.0%100.0%

Highest estimates

0Estimate
Katie Boyd Britt100.0%
James Comer100.0%
John Fetterman100.0%
Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann100.0%
Lizzie Fletcher100.0%
Andrew R. Garbarino100.0%
Angus S. King, Jr.100.0%
Rick Larsen100.0%
Richard McCormick100.0%
John J. McGuire III100.0%
Grace Meng100.0%
Patty Murray100.0%

Members flagged by this test

MemberReadingEstimateHolm pSummary
Nancy Pelosi
Rep. · D-CA-11
Open question5.9%0.8326% of 187 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were larger than usual.
Cleo Fields
Rep. · D-LA-6
Open question27.1%0.95227% of 240 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were larger than usual.
Rick W. Allen
Rep. · R-GA-12
Open question28.0%1.00028% of 236 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Cory A. Booker
Sen. · D-NJ
Open question63.2%–63% of 19 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).
Judy Chu
Rep. · D-CA-28
Open question7.1%1.0007% of 14 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Ted Cruz
Sen. · R-TX
Open question9.1%1.0009% of 11 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were larger than usual.
Suzan K. DelBene
Rep. · D-WA-1
Open question39.3%1.00039% of 211 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were larger than usual.
Debbie Dingell
Rep. · D-MI-6
Open question47.7%1.00048% of 237 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Neal P. Dunn
Rep. · R-FL-2
Open question30.8%–31% of 26 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).
Pat Fallon
Rep. · R-TX-4
Open question50.3%1.00050% of 193 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Bill Hagerty
Sen. · R-TN
Open question31.0%–31% of 29 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).
John W. Hickenlooper
Sen. · D-CO
Open question16.8%1.00017% of 119 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were larger than usual.
J. French Hill
Rep. · R-AR-2
Open question27.4%1.00027% of 62 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
John Hoeven
Sen. · R-ND
Open question2.2%1.0002% of 178 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Jonathan L. Jackson
Rep. · D-IL-1
Open question37.1%1.00037% of 197 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Sara Jacobs
Rep. · D-CA-51
Open question1.9%1.0002% of 54 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Laurel M. Lee
Rep. · R-FL-15
Open question40.9%1.00041% of 22 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Brian J. Mast
Rep. · R-FL-21
Open question25.9%1.00026% of 85 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Michael T. McCaul
Rep. · R-TX-10
Open question43.9%1.00044% of 9183 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were larger than usual.
David McCormick
Sen. · R-PA
Open question3.8%–4% of 26 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).
Carol D. Miller
Rep. · R-WV-1
Open question45.9%1.00046% of 122 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Ashley Moody
Sen. · R-FL
Open question17.4%1.00017% of 23 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Tim Moore
Rep. · R-NC-14
Open question9.8%1.00010% of 193 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Seth Moulton
Rep. · D-MA-6
Open question63.6%–64% of 11 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).
Eleanor Holmes Norton
Rep. · D-DC-0
Open question38.5%–38% of 13 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).
Scott H. Peters
Rep. · D-CA-50
Open question11.8%1.00012% of 424 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Pete Ricketts
Sen. · R-NE
Open question0.0%–0% of 25 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).
John W. Rose
Rep. · R-TN-6
Open question6.7%–7% of 15 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).
Deborah K. Ross
Rep. · D-NC-2
Open question40.7%1.00041% of 27 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Chip Roy
Rep. · R-TX-21
Open question36.4%–36% of 11 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).
Raul Ruiz
Rep. · D-CA-25
Open question16.7%–17% of 12 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).
Adam B. Schiff
Sen. · D-CA
Open question30.0%1.00030% of 20 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Bradley Scott Schneider
Rep. · D-IL-10
Open question24.6%1.00025% of 183 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were larger than usual.
Kim Schrier
Rep. · D-WA-8
Open question26.8%1.00027% of 41 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Jefferson Shreve
Rep. · R-IN-6
Open question0.4%1.0000% of 556 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Tina Smith
Sen. · D-MN
Open question5.0%1.0005% of 40 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were larger than usual.
Lloyd Smucker
Rep. · R-PA-11
Open question51.6%1.00052% of 31 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Victoria Spartz
Rep. · R-IN-5
Open question28.0%1.00028% of 25 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Bryan Steil
Rep. · R-WI-1
Open question71.4%1.00071% of 14 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.
Thomas R. Suozzi
Rep. · D-NY-3
Open question44.9%1.00045% of 680 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were larger than usual.
Tim Walberg
Rep. · R-MI-5
Open question33.3%–33% of 15 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).
George Whitesides
Rep. · D-CA-27
Open question5.7%1.0006% of 35 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were larger than usual.
Ron Wyden
Sen. · D-OR
Open question27.3%1.00027% of 245 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000); trades just before large company-specific moves were not larger than usual.