Rep. Andrew R. Garbarino
Republican · Representative, NY-2
No test fits; open questions on breadth and concentration.
Scorecard
Select a test to see the estimate, interval, adjusted p-values and robustness checks.
T2Breadth and concentration7 different companies; the effective number of equally sized positions is 6 and trading spans 53% of maximum sector diversity.Open question
Question
Is trading concentrated in a few companies rather than spread across a diversified portfolio?
Insider signature
Informed trading concentrates in the few issuers tied to the information.
Analyst note
Dollar HHI 0.174 (identified set [0.143, 0.725]); trade-count HHI 0.174 vs. 95th percentile 0.107 of 11 random draws from all congressional trades (p = 0.002). Normalized sector entropy 0.53 [0.50, 0.58]. Top three issuers (ORMP, OSW, TELL) carry at least 10% of dollar volume.
- Evidence
- Statistical
- Effective number of issuers
- 6 [1, 7] 90%
All computed statistics (13)
| n | 11 |
| issuers | 7 |
| hhi_mid | 0.1736 |
| hhi_bounds | [0.1429, 0.7250] |
| n_eff | 5.7619 |
| hhi_count | 0.1736 |
| peer_benchmark_p95 | 0.1074 |
| peer_benchmark_p | 0.0020 |
| sector_entropy | 0.5326 |
| sector_entropy_ci | [0.4985, 0.5759] |
| top3_share_lower | 0.1046 |
| top3 | [ORMP, OSW, TELL] |
| top3_tied_to_events | false |
T1Trade size100% of 11 trades were in the lowest disclosure band ($1,001-$15,000).Does not fit
Question
Are the member's trades unusually large, especially just before news?
Insider signature
Informed trades are large relative to the trader's normal activity, because the profit from an informational edge scales with position size.
Analyst note
Lowest-band share 1.000, 90% Wilson [0.803, 1.000]. No firm-event calendar, so the event-linked size gap was not computed.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Lowest-band share
- 100.0% [80.3%, 100.0%] 90%
All computed statistics (5)
| n | 11 |
| lowest_band_share | 1 |
| lowest_band_ci | [0.8026, 1] |
| share_over_50k | 0 |
| max_z | 0 |
T3Cadence and event proximity50% of trading days were batches of three or more companies; 0% of trades look routine; 0.0% of trades came within five trading days before a large company-specific move (chance alone: 1.8%).Does not fit
Question
Do trades arrive in routine rebalancing batches, or sporadically just before company news?
Insider signature
Opportunistic trades carry information and routine trades do not.
Analyst note
Batch-day share 2/4, Wilson [0.18, 0.82]; index of dispersion 3.36 (chi-square p = 8.58e-284); routine share 0.00 (portfolio-routine or Cohen-Malloy-Pomorski two-year rule). Proximity share 0.000 vs. circular-shift null mean 0.018, p = 1.000.
- Evidence
- Statistical
- Batch-day share
- 50.0% [18.2%, 81.8%] 90%
- p-value
- 1.000
- Holm-adjusted p
- 1.000
- BH q-value
- 1.000
All computed statistics (14)
| n | 11 |
| trade_days | 4 |
| batch_share_trades | 0.7273 |
| batch_day_share | 0.5000 |
| batch_day_ci | [0.1824, 0.8176] |
| dispersion_index | 3.3569 |
| dispersion_p | 0 |
| routine_share | 0 |
| proximity_share | 0 |
| proximity_null_mean | 0.0184 |
| proximity_null_p95 | 0.0909 |
| proximity_p | 1 |
| proximity_nonroutine | 0 |
| proximity_routine | 0 |
T7Disclosure timeliness0 of 16 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 32 days.Does not fit
Question
Were trades disclosed within the STOCK Act's 45-day limit?
Insider signature
Delayed disclosure can conceal well-timed trades.
Analyst note
Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.145]; 90th percentile lag 36 days; longest 36 days.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Late share
- 0.0% [0.0%, 14.5%] 90%
All computed statistics (15)
| n | 16 |
| amendment_rows_excluded | 0 |
| late | 0 |
| late_from_trade | 0 |
| excused_by_notification | 0 |
| late_share | 0 |
| late_ci | [0, 0.1446] |
| median_lag | 32.5000 |
| p90_lag | 36 |
| max_lag | 36 |
| filings | 5 |
| late_filings | 0 |
| late_priced | 0 |
| timely_priced | 7 |
| late_priced_dates | 0 |
T13Co-trading with other members0% of trades had another member trading the same stock the same way within a week (chance alone: 2%).Does not fit
Question
Does the member trade the same stock in the same direction as other members at the same time more than chance predicts?
Insider signature
Shared nonpublic information spreads through networks and shows up as clustered trades.
Analyst note
Co-traded share 0.000; circular-shift null mean 0.019, 95th pct 0.091, p = 1.000.
- Evidence
- Statistical
- Co-traded share
- 0.0%
- Robust to variants
- Yes
All computed statistics (7)
| n | 11 |
| cotraded_share | 0 |
| null_mean | 0.0193 |
| null_p95 | 0.0909 |
| excess_p | 1 |
| cotraded_share_wo_top | 0 |
| excess_p_wo_top | 1 |
| Robustness variant | Reading | Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Without M001157, the member with the most trades, in the co-trade index | Does not fit | 0.0% |
T16Options and leverageNo option trades were reported.Does not fit
Question
Does the member use options, and do option trades point the right way?
Insider signature
Informed traders favour options because leverage raises the payoff to private information.
Analyst note
No option trades were reported.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (2)
| option_trades | 0 |
| option_share | 0 |
T4Event timing (abnormal returns)Abnormal returns were not computed (daily prices unavailable or too few priced trades).Not assessed
Question
Do purchases rise and sales fall more than the market in the weeks after the trade?
Insider signature
Purchases before price rises and sales before price falls.
Analyst note
Abnormal returns were not computed (daily prices unavailable or too few priced trades).
- Evidence
- Not computed
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 7 |
T5Direction before market-wide shocksNo market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.Not assessed
Question
Before the market's biggest moves, did the member's trades point the right way?
Insider signature
An informed trader's trades just before a market-moving event point in the direction of the coming move.
Analyst note
No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 10 points above a coin flip
All computed statistics (1)
| n_episodes | 0 |
T6Control and independenceTrading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.Not assessed
Question
Does the member direct the trades, and does trading change when the member's access to information changes?
Insider signature
The person holding the information directs the trade.
Analyst note
Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.
- Evidence
- Statistical
- Absence rate ratio
- 0.00 [0.00, 117.60] 90%
All computed statistics (6)
| rate_ratio | 0 |
| rate_ratio_ci | [0, 117.5959] |
| rate_ratio_batchdays | 0 |
| rate_ratio_batchdays_ci | [0, 418.7716] |
| absence_days | 3 |
| trades_in_absence | 0 |
T8Committee overlapToo few trades could be mapped to an industry.Not assessed
Question
Does the member trade industries their committees oversee, and do those trades do better?
Insider signature
Members may trade on information about industries their committees oversee.
Analyst note
Too few trades could be mapped to an industry.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 11 |
T9Policy-topic overlap1 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 6 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.Not assessed
Question
Did trades in stocks affected by the member's legislative work come before votes and move the right way?
Insider signature
Trading on knowledge of legislation before it is public.
Analyst note
1 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 6 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade
All computed statistics (3)
| n | 1 |
| n_other | 6 |
| events | 3526 |
T10Behavior after scrutinyNo documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference.Not assessed
Question
Did trading change after press scrutiny or an ethics inquiry?
Insider signature
A member who trades on information has an incentive to keep control of trading after scrutiny.
Analyst note
No documented scrutiny date; the estimated change point in trading activity is shown for reference. Estimated change point 2021-04-26 (permutation p = 0.034).
- Evidence
- Descriptive
All computed statistics (5)
| changepoint | 2021-04-26 |
| changepoint_LR | 9.5666 |
| changepoint_p | 0.0340 |
| tradeday_rate_before | 1 |
| tradeday_rate_after | 0.0027 |
T11Performance relative to CongressRequires T4 for every member; computed in the cross-member pass.Not assessed
Question
After accounting for noise, does the member's trading beat that of other members?
Insider signature
A member with an information edge stands out from the cross-section of congressional traders.
Analyst note
Requires T4 for every member; computed in the cross-member pass.
- Evidence
- Not computed
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
T12Anticipation of large stock movesNone of the member's priced trades was followed within ten trading days by a large abnormal move.Not assessed
Question
When a traded stock made a large unexpected move soon after the trade, was the trade on the right side?
Insider signature
Buying shortly before a large jump or selling shortly before a large drop.
Analyst note
None of the member's priced trades was followed within ten trading days by a large abnormal move.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 10 points above a coin flip
All computed statistics (2)
| n | 0 |
| priced | 7 |
T14Family-account tradesNo trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.Not assessed
Question
Do trades in a spouse's or dependent's name do better than the member's own?
Insider signature
Routing informed trades through family accounts.
Analyst note
No trades were reported in a spouse's or dependent's name.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (2)
| family_trades | 0 |
| owner_unknown | 0 |
T15Short-swing round trips2 round trips but fewer than three priced.Not assessed
Question
Does the member buy and sell the same stock within six months, and do those round trips beat the market?
Insider signature
Short-horizon round trips capture a temporary informational edge.
Analyst note
2 round trips but fewer than three priced.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (2)
| round_trips | 2 |
| share_in_round_trips | 0.3636 |
Largest positions traded
| Company | Trades | Disclosed value |
|---|---|---|
| ORMP Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 3 | $3,003 to $45K |
| OSW OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited - Common Shares | 2 | $2,002 to $30K |
| TELL Tellurian Inc. | 2 | $2,002 to $30K |
| BAC Bank of America Corporation | 1 | $1,001 to $15K |
| GSS Golden Star Resources, Ltd | 1 | $1,001 to $15K |
| Capital World Grow and Income | 1 | $1,001 to $15K |
| Investment Company of America AIVSX | 1 | $1,001 to $15K |
| New Perspective ANWPX | 1 | $1,001 to $15K |
All disclosed trades
Amounts are the ranges reported on the filing. Late filings are those made more than 45 days after the trade.
| Trade date | Asset | Type | Amount | Owner | Filed after | 5-day CAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2025 | GAP Gap, Inc. | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 0 d | +0.5% | Filing |
| Jan 14, 2022 | ORMP Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc. | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 0 d | +16.0% | Filing |
| Jan 14, 2022 | TELL Tellurian Inc. | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 0 d | – | Filing |
| Oct 1, 2021 | GPS Gap, Inc. | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 33 d | – | Filing |
| Oct 1, 2021 | OSW OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited - Common Shares | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 33 d | −1.8% | Filing |
| Oct 1, 2021 | ORMP Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc. | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 33 d | −3.2% | Filing |
| Oct 1, 2021 | TELL Tellurian Inc. | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 33 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 7, 2021 | VMCCX | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 32 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 3, 2021 | Capital World Grow and Income | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 36 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 3, 2021 | Investment Company of America AIVSX | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 36 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 3, 2021 | New Perspective ANWPX | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 36 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 3, 2021 | New World NEWFX | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 36 d | – | Filing |
| Apr 23, 2021 | BAC Bank of America CorporationCommittee | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 31 d | −2.9% | Filing |
| Apr 23, 2021 | GSS Golden Star Resources, Ltd | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 31 d | – | Filing |
| Apr 23, 2021 | OSW OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited - Common Shares | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 31 d | +2.2% | Filing |
| Apr 23, 2021 | ORMP Oramed Pharmaceuticals Inc. | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 31 d | +5.9% | Filing |