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T10 · Control and behavior

Behavior after scrutiny

Did trading change after press scrutiny or an ethics inquiry?

What would look suspicious

A member who trades on information has an incentive to keep control of trading after scrutiny.

Statistic

Rate ratio after versus before a known date; estimated change point

Λ(τ)=2[Y≤τln⁡Y≤ττ+Y>τln⁡Y>τT−τ−Yln⁡YT]\Lambda(\tau)=2\Big[Y_{\le\tau}\ln\tfrac{Y_{\le\tau}}{\tau}+Y_{>\tau}\ln\tfrac{Y_{>\tau}}{T-\tau}-Y\ln\tfrac YT\Big]

Inference

Exact rate ratio; permutation test for the maximal likelihood ratio

Decision rule

Does not fit if trading fell sharply after scrutiny or a blind trust was adopted. Open question if trading continued without a blind trust. Never fits on its own.

Inputs

tradesscrutiny datesarrangements

Limitations

Requires a documented scrutiny date; not assessed otherwise.

Full derivation and algorithm: technical methodology (PDF), section T10.

Results across members

Fits patternOpen questionDoes not fitNot assessedScreening signal

0 fits · 26 open question · 11 do not fit · 209 not assessed

Distribution of member estimates (37 members)
0.0019.24

Highest estimates

0Estimate
Robert C. "Bobby" Scott19.24
John R. Curtis5.31
John H. Rutherford4.97
Maria Elvira Salazar4.82
John W. Rose4.47
Brian Babin4.29
Dan Newhouse2.95
Thomas H. Kean, Jr.2.72
Roger Williams2.44
Greg Landsman2.05
Jonathan L. Jackson1.47
Rick Larsen1.37

Members flagged by this test

MemberReadingEstimateHolm pSummary
Rick W. Allen
Rep. · R-GA-12
Open question0.50–After scrutiny on 2021-09-29, trading ran at 0.50 times its earlier rate.
Brian Babin
Rep. · R-TX-36
Open question4.29–After scrutiny on 2023-06-20, trading ran at 4.29 times its earlier rate.
Dan Crenshaw
Rep. · R-TX-2
Open question0.50–After scrutiny on 2021-03-09, trading ran at 0.50 times its earlier rate.
John R. Curtis
Sen. · R-UT
Open question5.31–After scrutiny on 2023-08-18, trading ran at 5.31 times its earlier rate.
Dwight Evans
Rep. · D-PA-3
Open question0.71–After scrutiny on 2025-04-10, trading ran at 0.71 times its earlier rate.
Josh Gottheimer
Rep. · D-NJ-5
Open question1.34–After scrutiny on 2022-08-17, trading ran at 1.34 times its earlier rate.
Kevin Hern
Rep. · R-OK-1
Open question0.86–After scrutiny on 2021-12-13, trading ran at 0.86 times its earlier rate.
Jonathan L. Jackson
Rep. · D-IL-1
Open question1.47–After scrutiny on 2024-09-30, trading ran at 1.47 times its earlier rate.
Thomas H. Kean, Jr.
Rep. · R-NJ-7
Open question2.72–After scrutiny on 2026-04-24, trading ran at 2.72 times its earlier rate.
William R. Keating
Rep. · D-MA-9
Open question0.77–After scrutiny on 2023-10-05, trading ran at 0.77 times its earlier rate.
Mike Kelly
Rep. · R-PA-16
Open question0.73–After scrutiny on 2021-09-29, trading ran at 0.73 times its earlier rate.
Greg Landsman
Rep. · D-OH-1
Open question2.05–After scrutiny on 2024-09-30, trading ran at 2.05 times its earlier rate.
Rick Larsen
Rep. · D-WA-2
Open question1.37–After scrutiny on 2023-06-20, trading ran at 1.37 times its earlier rate.
Daniel Meuser
Rep. · R-PA-9
Open question0.37–After scrutiny on 2021-12-13, trading ran at 0.37 times its earlier rate.
Kelly Morrison
Rep. · D-MN-3
Open question0.38–After scrutiny on 2026-04-06, trading ran at 0.38 times its earlier rate.
Jared Moskowitz
Rep. · D-FL-23
Open question0.77–After scrutiny on 2024-08-10, trading ran at 0.77 times its earlier rate.
Dan Newhouse
Rep. · R-WA-4
Open question2.95–After scrutiny on 2024-09-30, trading ran at 2.95 times its earlier rate.
Nancy Pelosi
Rep. · D-CA-11
Open question1.25–After scrutiny on 2021-07-07, trading ran at 1.25 times its earlier rate.
John W. Rose
Rep. · R-TN-6
Open question4.47–After scrutiny on 2024-09-30, trading ran at 4.47 times its earlier rate.
John H. Rutherford
Rep. · R-FL-5
Open question4.97–After scrutiny on 2021-09-29, trading ran at 4.97 times its earlier rate.
Maria Elvira Salazar
Rep. · R-FL-27
Open question4.82–After scrutiny on 2024-09-30, trading ran at 4.82 times its earlier rate.
Kim Schrier
Rep. · D-WA-8
Open question1.08–After scrutiny on 2021-12-13, trading ran at 1.08 times its earlier rate.
Robert C. "Bobby" Scott
Rep. · D-VA-3
Open question19.24–After scrutiny on 2021-09-22, trading ran at 19.24 times its earlier rate.
Victoria Spartz
Rep. · R-IN-5
Open question0.47–After scrutiny on 2021-09-29, trading ran at 0.47 times its earlier rate.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz
Rep. · D-FL-25
Open question0.87–After scrutiny on 2021-08-05, trading ran at 0.87 times its earlier rate.
Roger Williams
Rep. · R-TX-25
Open question2.44–After scrutiny on 2021-09-22, trading ran at 2.44 times its earlier rate.