T11 · Peer comparison
Performance relative to Congress
After accounting for noise, does the member's trading beat that of other members?
What would look suspicious
A member with an information edge stands out from the cross-section of congressional traders.
Statistic
Empirical Bayes posterior mean of the member's signed 21-day CAR; percentile among members
Inference
Normal-normal empirical Bayes shrinkage across all members with returns
Decision rule
Fits if the 95% posterior lower bound is above zero. Does not fit if the 90% posterior upper bound is below the margin. Otherwise open question.
Equivalence margin δ
0.5% per trade over 21 days (fixed before seeing the data)
Inputs
T4 estimates for every member
Limitations
Shrinkage pulls members with few trades toward the congressional mean.
Full derivation and algorithm: technical methodology (PDF), section T11.
Results across members
Fits patternOpen questionDoes not fitNot assessedScreening signal
0 fits · 0 open question · 134 do not fit · 112 not assessed
−0.28%margin +0.50%+0.50%
Highest estimates
0δEstimate