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Seal of the U.S. House of RepresentativesSeal of the U.S. SenateCongress Trading ReviewStock trades of the U.S. House and Senate
T9 · Policy and committee overlap

Policy-topic overlap

Did trades in stocks affected by the member's legislative work come before votes and move the right way?

What would look suspicious

Trading on knowledge of legislation before it is public.

Statistic

Signed CAR of trades in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee or floor actions, minus that of the member's other trades; pre-trade drift

θ9,i=di∑τ=1e−ti+hARi,τ,ψi=di∑τ=−q−1ARi,τ\theta_{9,i}=d_i\sum_{\tau=1}^{e-t_i+h}\mathrm{AR}_{i,\tau},\quad \psi_i=d_i\sum_{\tau=-q}^{-1}\mathrm{AR}_{i,\tau}

Inference

Date-clustered bootstrap of the difference (BCa); one-sided t test for pre-trade drift

Decision rule

Fits if pre-event trades beat the member's other trades significantly after Holm and BH adjustment, earn a positive signed CAR, did not significantly follow public price moves in their own direction, and the same industries do not also beat the member's other trades in the month after events (placebo). Does not fit if the difference is bounded below the margin. Otherwise open question. Needs at least 10 trades in each group, on at least 10 distinct dates.

Equivalence margin δ

0.5% per trade (fixed before seeing the data)

Inputs

tradeslegislative event calendar (committee markups and reports, chamber passage, enactment)committee assignmentsjurisdiction mapdaily returns

Limitations

Events are bill milestones from GovInfo bill status records, attributed to every committee a bill was referred to; affected industries come from the committee jurisdiction map rather than the bill text, so large committees produce many events. Committee assignments are current only.

Full derivation and algorithm: technical methodology (PDF), section T9.

Results across members

Fits patternOpen questionDoes not fitNot assessedScreening signal

1 fits · 14 open question · 5 do not fit · 226 not assessed (including 17 inconclusive for too few trades). 2 open questions are screening signals (unadjusted p below 0.05).

Distribution of member estimates (37 members)
−4.70%margin +0.50%+4.87%

Highest estimates

0δEstimate
Dwight Evans+4.87%
Donald S. Beyer, Jr.+4.49%
Gary C. Peters+1.94%
Shelley Moore Capito+1.83%
Thomas H. Kean, Jr.+1.78%
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.+1.65%
Carol D. Miller+1.43%
Josh Gottheimer+1.42%
Dan Crenshaw+1.32%
Rick W. Allen+1.23%
Pete Sessions+1.17%
Susan M. Collins+1.01%

Members flagged by this test

MemberReadingEstimateHolm pSummary
Dwight Evans
Rep. · D-PA-3
Fits pattern+4.87%0.01615 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +3.79% in the trade's favour, +4.87% relative to the member's other trades.
Donald S. Beyer, Jr.
Rep. · D-VA-8
Screening signal+4.49%0.016115 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +4.87% in the trade's favour, +4.49% relative to the member's other trades.
Josh Gottheimer
Rep. · D-NJ-5
Screening signal+1.42%0.018473 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +1.23% in the trade's favour, +1.42% relative to the member's other trades.
Shelley Moore Capito
Sen. · R-WV
Open question+1.83%0.46866 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +1.51% in the trade's favour, +1.83% relative to the member's other trades.
Thomas H. Kean, Jr.
Rep. · R-NJ-7
Open question+1.78%0.70849 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +1.59% in the trade's favour, +1.78% relative to the member's other trades.
Rick W. Allen
Rep. · R-GA-12
Open question+1.23%1.00061 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +0.05% in the trade's favour, +1.23% relative to the member's other trades.
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
Rep. · D-CA-31
Open question+1.65%1.00032 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +1.19% in the trade's favour, +1.65% relative to the member's other trades.
Susan M. Collins
Sen. · R-ME
Open question+1.01%1.00020 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +0.02% in the trade's favour, +1.01% relative to the member's other trades.
Dan Crenshaw
Rep. · R-TX-2
Open question+1.32%1.00013 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved -2.86% in the trade's favour, +1.32% relative to the member's other trades.
Kevin Hern
Rep. · R-OK-1
Open question+0.82%1.00074 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +0.30% in the trade's favour, +0.82% relative to the member's other trades.
John W. Hickenlooper
Sen. · D-CO
Open question+0.51%1.00033 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +0.02% in the trade's favour, +0.51% relative to the member's other trades.
Zoe Lofgren
Rep. · D-CA-18
Open question+0.66%1.00041 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved -1.33% in the trade's favour, +0.66% relative to the member's other trades.
Carol D. Miller
Rep. · R-WV-1
Open question+1.43%1.00026 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +1.39% in the trade's favour, +1.43% relative to the member's other trades.
Gary C. Peters
Sen. · D-MI
Open question+1.94%1.00013 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +2.20% in the trade's favour, +1.94% relative to the member's other trades.
Pete Sessions
Rep. · R-TX-17
Open question+1.17%1.00042 trades in industries the member's committees oversee came in the month before a committee or floor action on a bill; they moved +0.77% in the trade's favour, +1.17% relative to the member's other trades.