T12 · Timing

Anticipation of large stock moves

When a traded stock made a large unexpected move soon after the trade, was the trade on the right side?

What would look suspicious

Buying shortly before a large jump or selling shortly before a large drop.

Statistic

Hit rate among trades followed within ten trading days by an abnormal move above three standard deviations

\hat h_{12}=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i:|\mathrm{AR}_{i,\tau^*}|>3\sigma_i}\mathbf 1\{d_i\,\mathrm{AR}_{i,\tau^*}>0\}

Inference

Exact binomial test; Clopper-Pearson interval

Decision rule

Fits if the hit rate is significantly above one half after adjustment. Does not fit if the upper bound is below 0.6. Otherwise open question.

Equivalence margin δ

10 points above a coin flip (fixed before seeing the data)

Inputs

tradesdaily returns

Limitations

Large moves are rare; most members have few qualifying trades.

Full derivation and algorithm: technical methodology (PDF), section T12.

Results across members

Fits patternOpen questionDoes not fitNot assessedScreening signal

0 fits · 32 open question · 30 do not fit · 184 not assessed (including 88 inconclusive for too few trades). 9 open questions are screening signals (unadjusted p below 0.05).

Distribution of member estimates (150 members)

0.0%margin 10.0%100.0%

Highest estimates

0δEstimate

Jake Auchincloss100.0%

Mario Diaz-Balart100.0%

John Fetterman100.0%

Stephen F. Lynch100.0%

Morgan McGarvey100.0%

Eleanor Holmes Norton100.0%

Pete Ricketts100.0%

Marc A. Veasey100.0%

Tina Smith87.5%

David McCormick85.7%

Deborah K. Ross80.0%

George Whitesides76.2%

Members flagged by this test

Member	Reading	Estimate	Holm p	Summary
Scott H. Peters Rep. · D-CA-50	Screening signal	71.4%	0.032	42 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 30 were on the profitable side.
George Whitesides Rep. · D-CA-27	Screening signal	76.2%	0.080	21 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 16 were on the profitable side.
Ron Wyden Sen. · D-OR	Screening signal	66.7%	0.125	45 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 30 were on the profitable side.
Julie Johnson Rep. · D-TX-32	Screening signal	60.2%	0.171	108 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 65 were on the profitable side.
Tina Smith Sen. · D-MN	Screening signal	87.5%	0.176	8 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 7 were on the profitable side.
Jim Banks Sen. · R-IN	Screening signal	72.2%	0.241	18 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 13 were on the profitable side.
David McCormick Sen. · R-PA	Open question	85.7%	0.250	7 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 6 were on the profitable side.
Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr. Rep. · R-PA-8	Screening signal	57.7%	0.311	142 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 82 were on the profitable side.
Katherine M. Clark Rep. · D-MA-5	Screening signal	59.2%	0.342	98 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 58 were on the profitable side.
Nancy Pelosi Rep. · D-CA-11	Screening signal	66.7%	0.444	30 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 20 were on the profitable side.
Debbie Dingell Rep. · D-MI-6	Open question	68.0%	0.485	25 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 17 were on the profitable side.
Scott Franklin Rep. · R-FL-18	Open question	66.7%	0.488	27 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 18 were on the profitable side.
Jake Auchincloss Rep. · D-MA-4	Open question	100.0%	0.500	1 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.
Mario Diaz-Balart Rep. · R-FL-26	Open question	100.0%	0.500	1 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.
Stephen F. Lynch Rep. · D-MA-8	Open question	100.0%	0.500	1 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.
Marc A. Veasey Rep. · D-TX-33	Open question	100.0%	0.500	1 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.
Kelly Morrison Rep. · D-MN-3	Open question	72.7%	0.566	11 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 8 were on the profitable side.
John James Rep. · R-MI-10	Open question	65.4%	0.675	26 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 17 were on the profitable side.
John Fetterman Sen. · D-PA	Open question	100.0%	0.750	2 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.
Peter Welch Sen. · D-VT	Open question	61.8%	0.803	34 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 21 were on the profitable side.
Tim Moore Rep. · R-NC-14	Open question	62.5%	0.861	32 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 20 were on the profitable side.
Susan M. Collins Sen. · R-ME	Open question	62.5%	1.000	16 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 10 were on the profitable side.
James Comer Rep. · R-KY-1	Open question	71.4%	1.000	7 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 5 were on the profitable side.
Ron Estes Rep. · R-KS-4	Open question	66.7%	1.000	3 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.
Mike Kelly Rep. · R-PA-16	Open question	66.7%	1.000	3 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.
Robert E. Latta Rep. · R-OH-5	Open question	66.7%	1.000	6 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 4 were on the profitable side.
Laurel M. Lee Rep. · R-FL-15	Open question	66.7%	1.000	3 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.
Morgan McGarvey Rep. · D-KY-3	Open question	100.0%	1.000	1 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.
Eleanor Holmes Norton Rep. · D-DC-0	Open question	100.0%	1.000	2 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.
Pete Ricketts Sen. · R-NE	Open question	100.0%	1.000	1 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.
Deborah K. Ross Rep. · D-NC-2	Open question	80.0%	1.000	5 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 4 were on the profitable side.
Victoria Spartz Rep. · R-IN-5	Open question	75.0%	1.000	4 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 3 were on the profitable side.
Dan Sullivan Sen. · R-AK	Open question	66.7%	1.000	3 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 2 were on the profitable side.
Ritchie Torres Rep. · D-NY-15	Open question	64.3%	1.000	14 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 9 were on the profitable side.