Rep. Stephen F. Lynch
Democrat · Representative, MA-8
No test fits; open questions on disclosure timeliness, anticipation of large stock moves.
Scorecard
Select a test to see the estimate, interval, adjusted p-values and robustness checks.
T7Disclosure timeliness4 of 14 trades (28.6%) were disclosed late; median lag 65 days. Another 9 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.Open question
Question
Were trades disclosed within the STOCK Act's 45-day limit?
Insider signature
Delayed disclosure can conceal well-timed trades.
Analyst note
Late share 0.286, Wilson [0.135, 0.506]; 90th percentile lag 214 days; longest 489 days.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Late share
- 28.6% [13.5%, 50.6%] 90%
- Robust to variants
- Yes
All computed statistics (12)
| n | 14 |
| amendment_rows_excluded | 0 |
| late | 4 |
| late_from_trade | 13 |
| excused_by_notification | 9 |
| late_share | 0.2857 |
| late_ci | [0.1353, 0.5055] |
| median_lag | 65 |
| p90_lag | 214.4000 |
| max_lag | 489 |
| filings | 5 |
| late_filings | 1 |
| Robustness variant | Reading | Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates | Open question | 92.9% |
T12Anticipation of large stock moves1 trades were followed within two weeks by a large company-specific move; 1 were on the profitable side.Open question
Question
When a traded stock made a large unexpected move soon after the trade, was the trade on the right side?
Insider signature
Buying shortly before a large jump or selling shortly before a large drop.
Analyst note
Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson [0.05, 1.00], exact one-sided p = 0.500; threshold |AR| > 3 sigma.
- Evidence
- Statistical
- Hit rate
- 100.0% [5.0%, 100.0%] 90%
- p-value
- 0.500
- Holm-adjusted p
- 0.500
- BH q-value
- 1.000
- Margin δ
- 10 points above a coin flip
All computed statistics (6)
| n | 1 |
| hits | 1 |
| hit_rate | 1 |
| ci | [0.0500, 1] |
| priced | 1 |
| share_followed | 1 |
T16Options and leverageNo option trades were reported.Does not fit
Question
Does the member use options, and do option trades point the right way?
Insider signature
Informed traders favour options because leverage raises the payoff to private information.
Analyst note
No option trades were reported.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (2)
| option_trades | 0 |
| option_share | 0 |
T1Trade sizeOnly 2 directional trades; too few for a size reading.Not assessed
Question
Are the member's trades unusually large, especially just before news?
Insider signature
Informed trades are large relative to the trader's normal activity, because the profit from an informational edge scales with position size.
Analyst note
Only 2 directional trades; too few for a size reading.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 2 |
T2Breadth and concentrationOnly 2 directional trades; too few for a concentration reading.Not assessed
Question
Is trading concentrated in a few companies rather than spread across a diversified portfolio?
Insider signature
Informed trading concentrates in the few issuers tied to the information.
Analyst note
Only 2 directional trades; too few for a concentration reading.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 2 |
T3Cadence and event proximityOnly 2 directional trades; too few for a cadence reading.Not assessed
Question
Do trades arrive in routine rebalancing batches, or sporadically just before company news?
Insider signature
Opportunistic trades carry information and routine trades do not.
Analyst note
Only 2 directional trades; too few for a cadence reading.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 2 |
T4Event timing (abnormal returns)Abnormal returns were not computed (daily prices unavailable or too few priced trades).Not assessed
Question
Do purchases rise and sales fall more than the market in the weeks after the trade?
Insider signature
Purchases before price rises and sales before price falls.
Analyst note
Abnormal returns were not computed (daily prices unavailable or too few priced trades).
- Evidence
- Not computed
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 1 |
T5Direction before market-wide shocksNo market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.Not assessed
Question
Before the market's biggest moves, did the member's trades point the right way?
Insider signature
An informed trader's trades just before a market-moving event point in the direction of the coming move.
Analyst note
No market-wide shocks or documented events fell within five trading days after the member's trades.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 10 points above a coin flip
All computed statistics (1)
| n_episodes | 0 |
T6Control and independenceTrading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.Not assessed
Question
Does the member direct the trades, and does trading change when the member's access to information changes?
Insider signature
The person holding the information directs the trade.
Analyst note
Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at nan times the normal rate.
- Evidence
- Statistical
All computed statistics (6)
| rate_ratio | – |
| rate_ratio_ci | [0, –] |
| rate_ratio_batchdays | – |
| rate_ratio_batchdays_ci | [0, –] |
| absence_days | 0 |
| trades_in_absence | 0 |
T8Committee overlapOnly 2 directional trades; too few for a committee-overlap reading.Not assessed
Question
Does the member trade industries their committees oversee, and do those trades do better?
Insider signature
Members may trade on information about industries their committees oversee.
Analyst note
Only 2 directional trades; too few for a committee-overlap reading.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 2 |
T9Policy-topic overlapNo legislative event calendar with daily returns was available for this member.Not assessed
Question
Did trades in stocks affected by the member's legislative work come before votes and move the right way?
Insider signature
Trading on knowledge of legislation before it is public.
Analyst note
No legislative event calendar with daily returns was available for this member.
- Evidence
- Not computed
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade
T10Behavior after scrutinyOnly 2 directional trades.Not assessed
Question
Did trading change after press scrutiny or an ethics inquiry?
Insider signature
A member who trades on information has an incentive to keep control of trading after scrutiny.
Analyst note
Only 2 directional trades.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
T11Performance relative to CongressRequires T4 for every member; computed in the cross-member pass.Not assessed
Question
After accounting for noise, does the member's trading beat that of other members?
Insider signature
A member with an information edge stands out from the cross-section of congressional traders.
Analyst note
Requires T4 for every member; computed in the cross-member pass.
- Evidence
- Not computed
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
T13Co-trading with other membersOnly 2 directional trades.Not assessed
Question
Does the member trade the same stock in the same direction as other members at the same time more than chance predicts?
Insider signature
Shared nonpublic information spreads through networks and shows up as clustered trades.
Analyst note
Only 2 directional trades.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 2 |
T14Family-account tradesOnly 2 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.Not assessed
Question
Do trades in a spouse's or dependent's name do better than the member's own?
Insider signature
Routing informed trades through family accounts.
Analyst note
Only 2 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.
- Evidence
- Not computed
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (1)
| owner_unknown | 0 |
T15Short-swing round tripsOnly 2 directional trades.Not assessed
Question
Does the member buy and sell the same stock within six months, and do those round trips beat the market?
Insider signature
Short-horizon round trips capture a temporary informational edge.
Analyst note
Only 2 directional trades.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
Largest positions traded
| Company | Trades | Disclosed value |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Target Date 2025 Mutual Fund | 1 | $250K to $500K |
| Fidelity Contra Fund Mutual Fund | 1 | $100K to $250K |
| American Funds Income Fund of America Mutual Fund | 1 | $15K to $50K |
| Nationwide Investor Destination Moderate Aggressive Mutual Fund | 1 | $15K to $50K |
| American Funds Euro-Pacific Mutual Fund | 1 | $15K to $50K |
| American Funds Income Fund of America | 1 | $15K to $50K |
| Fidelity Balanced Fund | 1 | $15K to $50K |
| Fidelity Emerging Markets Mutual Fund | 2 | $2,002 to $30K |
All disclosed trades
Amounts are the ranges reported on the filing. Late filings are those made more than 45 days after the trade.
| Trade date | Asset | Type | Amount | Owner | Filed after | 5-day CAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2024 | American Funds Euro-Pacific Mutual Fund | Sale | $15K to $50K | self | 65 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 3, 2024 | American Funds Income Fund of America | Sale | $15K to $50K | self | 65 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 3, 2024 | Federated Kaufman Small Cap A Mutual Fund | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 65 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 3, 2024 | Fidelity Balanced Fund | Sale | $15K to $50K | self | 65 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 3, 2024 | Fidelity Contra Fund Mutual Fund | Sale | $100K to $250K | self | 65 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 3, 2024 | Fidelity Emerging Markets Mutual Fund | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 65 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 3, 2024 | Vanguard Target Date 2025 Mutual Fund | Purchase | $250K to $500K | self | 65 d | – | Filing |
| May 22, 2024 | NVDA NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 1 d | +17.7% | Filing |
| Nov 27, 2023 | VMW Vmware, Inc. Common Stock, Class A | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 164 d | – | Filing |
| Dec 30, 2022 | Fidelity Emerging Markets Mutual Fund | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 124 d | – | Filing |
| Dec 30, 2022 | Invesco Development Markets Mutual Fund | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 124 d | – | Filing |
| Dec 30, 2022 | Nationwide Investor Destination Moderate Aggressive Mutual Fund | Sale | $15K to $50K | self | 124 d | – | Filing |
| Dec 30, 2021 | American Funds Income Fund of America Mutual Fund | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 489 d | – | Filing |
| Sep 7, 2016 | EMC EMC Corporation | Exchange | $1,001 to $15K | self | 236 d | – | Filing |