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T8 · Policy and committee overlap

Committee overlap

Does the member trade industries their committees oversee, and do those trades do better?

What would look suspicious

Members may trade on information about industries their committees oversee.

Statistic

Jurisdiction excess share versus S&P 500 and congressional peers; in-minus-out of jurisdiction signed CAR

Δ8=sJ−sJ∗,diCARi=γ0+γ1Ji+η⊤xi+ei\Delta_8=s_J-s_J^{*},\quad d_i\mathrm{CAR}_i=\gamma_0+\gamma_1J_i+\eta^\top x_i+e_i

Inference

Identified set and bootstrap for the share; regression with sector and month fixed effects, date-clustered errors

Decision rule

Fits if the in-jurisdiction return premium is significantly positive after adjustment. Does not fit if there is no jurisdiction tilt and the premium is bounded below the margin. Otherwise open question.

Equivalence margin δ

0.5% per trade over 21 days (fixed before seeing the data)

Inputs

tradescommittee assignmentsjurisdiction mapdaily returns

Limitations

Committee assignments are current only; the jurisdiction map is at GICS sector or sub-industry level.

Full derivation and algorithm: technical methodology (PDF), section T8.

Results across members

Fits patternOpen questionDoes not fitNot assessedScreening signal

0 fits · 18 open question · 116 do not fit · 112 not assessed

Distribution of member estimates (134 members)
-38.1%margin 0.5%73.5%

Highest estimates

0δEstimate
Bryan Steil73.5%
Josh Gottheimer66.1%
Tina Smith47.3%
Robert C. "Bobby" Scott38.2%
August Pfluger37.4%
Sara Jacobs35.9%
David McCormick35.9%
Michael A. Rulli35.8%
J. French Hill31.4%
Cory A. Booker29.6%
John W. Hickenlooper22.4%
Pat Fallon18.4%

Members flagged by this test

MemberReadingEstimateHolm pSummary
Donald S. Beyer, Jr.
Rep. · D-VA-8
Open question5.8%–20% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 14% for a comparable benchmark.
Debbie Dingell
Rep. · D-MI-6
Open question12.6%–41% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 28% for a comparable benchmark.
Byron Donalds
Rep. · R-FL-19
Open question17.6%–41% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 23% for a comparable benchmark.
Pat Fallon
Rep. · R-TX-4
Open question18.4%–26% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 7% for a comparable benchmark.
Josh Gottheimer
Rep. · D-NJ-5
Open question66.1%–96% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 30% for a comparable benchmark.
John W. Hickenlooper
Sen. · D-CO
Open question22.4%–61% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 38% for a comparable benchmark.
David P. Joyce
Rep. · R-OH-14
Open question10.1%–18% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 8% for a comparable benchmark.
Thomas H. Kean, Jr.
Rep. · R-NJ-7
Open question9.9%–47% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 37% for a comparable benchmark.
Carol D. Miller
Rep. · R-WV-1
Open question16.8%–31% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 14% for a comparable benchmark.
Jared Moskowitz
Rep. · D-FL-23
Open question4.8%–21% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 16% for a comparable benchmark.
Dan Newhouse
Rep. · R-WA-4
Open question6.2%–18% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 12% for a comparable benchmark.
Scott H. Peters
Rep. · D-CA-50
Open question6.7%–34% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 28% for a comparable benchmark.
August Pfluger
Rep. · R-TX-11
Open question37.4%–72% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 35% for a comparable benchmark.
Michael A. Rulli
Rep. · R-OH-6
Open question35.8%–64% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 28% for a comparable benchmark.
Robert C. "Bobby" Scott
Rep. · D-VA-3
Open question38.2%–39% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 0% for a comparable benchmark.
Tina Smith
Sen. · D-MN
Open question47.3%–87% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 40% for a comparable benchmark.
Greg Stanton
Rep. · D-AZ-4
Open question3.8%–21% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 17% for a comparable benchmark.
Thomas R. Suozzi
Rep. · D-NY-3
Open question7.6%–30% of the member's mapped trading by dollar value was in industries their committees oversee, against 22% for a comparable benchmark.