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T4 · Timing

Event timing (abnormal returns)

Do purchases rise and sales fall more than the market in the weeks after the trade?

What would look suspicious

Purchases before price rises and sales before price falls.

Statistic

Mean signed cumulative abnormal return over 21 trading days; calendar-time alpha

θ^4=1N∑idi CARi(1,H),tKP=tBMP1−rˉ1+(N−1)rˉ\hat\theta_4=\frac1N\sum_i d_i\,\mathrm{CAR}_i(1,H),\quad t_{KP}=t_{BMP}\sqrt{\frac{1-\bar r}{1+(N-1)\bar r}}

Inference

Kolari-Pynnonen adjusted BMP test (primary), Patell, Corrado rank, Newey-West calendar-time alpha, date-clustered bootstrap

Decision rule

Fits if the Kolari-Pynnonen lower bound and the calendar-time lower bound exceed zero after Holm and BH adjustment. Does not fit if both upper bounds are below the margin. Otherwise open question.

Equivalence margin δ

0.5% per trade over 21 days (fixed before seeing the data)

Inputs

tradesdaily returnsfactors

Limitations

Range-reported amounts; low power for members with few trades; disclosure dates, not execution times.

Full derivation and algorithm: technical methodology (PDF), section T4.

Results across members

Fits patternOpen questionDoes not fitNot assessedScreening signal

0 fits · 39 open question · 3 do not fit · 204 not assessed (including 92 inconclusive for too few trades)

Distribution of member estimates (134 members)
−5.74%margin +0.50%+8.17%

Highest estimates

0δEstimate
Laurel M. Lee+8.17%
Brian J. Mast+7.39%
David McCormick+6.30%
Brian Babin+5.41%
Ron Estes+4.18%
Debbie Wasserman Schultz+3.50%
Sheri Biggs+2.96%
Tim Moore+2.90%
William R. Timmons IV+2.72%
Ashley Hinson+2.60%
Ashley Moody+2.60%
Chip Roy+2.34%

Members flagged by this test

MemberReadingEstimateHolm pSummary
William R. Timmons IV
Rep. · R-SC-4
Open question+2.72%0.494Across 17 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.72% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Tammy Duckworth
Sen. · D-IL
Open question+1.59%0.837Across 32 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.59% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Brian Babin
Rep. · R-TX-36
Open question+5.41%0.860Across 16 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 5.41% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
David McCormick
Sen. · R-PA
Open question+6.30%0.993Across 25 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 6.30% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Donald S. Beyer, Jr.
Rep. · D-VA-8
Open question+1.25%1.000Across 600 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.25% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Sheri Biggs
Rep. · R-SC-3
Open question+2.96%1.000Across 76 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.96% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr.
Rep. · R-PA-8
Open question+0.62%1.000Across 587 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.62% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Kathy Castor
Rep. · D-FL-14
Open question+1.24%1.000Across 72 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.24% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
James Comer
Rep. · R-KY-1
Open question+1.38%1.000Across 44 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.38% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Ron Estes
Rep. · R-KS-4
Open question+4.18%1.000Across 10 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 4.18% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Pat Fallon
Rep. · R-TX-4
Open question+1.88%1.000Across 172 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.88% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Lizzie Fletcher
Rep. · D-TX-7
Open question+0.85%1.000Across 98 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.85% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Scott Franklin
Rep. · R-FL-18
Open question+1.37%1.000Across 213 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.37% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Ashley Hinson
Rep. · R-IA-2
Open question+2.60%1.000Across 12 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.60% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Sara Jacobs
Rep. · D-CA-51
Open question+0.63%1.000Across 46 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.63% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
John James
Rep. · R-MI-10
Open question+0.57%1.000Across 253 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.57% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Rick Larsen
Rep. · D-WA-2
Open question+0.58%1.000Across 83 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.58% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Robert E. Latta
Rep. · R-OH-5
Open question+2.09%1.000Across 20 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.09% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Laurel M. Lee
Rep. · R-FL-15
Open question+8.17%1.000Across 20 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 8.17% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Brian J. Mast
Rep. · R-FL-21
Open question+7.39%1.000Across 53 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 7.39% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Michael T. McCaul
Rep. · R-TX-10
Open question+0.61%1.000Across 5045 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.61% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Richard McCormick
Rep. · R-GA-7
Open question+1.25%1.000Across 110 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.25% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Morgan McGarvey
Rep. · D-KY-3
Open question+1.46%1.000Across 26 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.46% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Ashley Moody
Sen. · R-FL
Open question+2.60%1.000Across 22 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.60% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Tim Moore
Rep. · R-NC-14
Open question+2.90%1.000Across 166 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.90% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Dan Newhouse
Rep. · R-WA-4
Open question+0.53%1.000Across 195 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.53% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Gary C. Peters
Sen. · D-MI
Open question+0.67%1.000Across 62 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.67% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
August Pfluger
Rep. · R-TX-11
Open question+1.22%1.000Across 20 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.22% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Chip Roy
Rep. · R-TX-21
Open question+2.34%1.000Across 10 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 2.34% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Kim Schrier
Rep. · D-WA-8
Open question+0.71%1.000Across 40 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.71% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Robert C. "Bobby" Scott
Rep. · D-VA-3
Open question+1.83%1.000Across 21 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.83% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Lloyd Smucker
Rep. · R-PA-11
Open question+1.53%1.000Across 28 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.53% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Victoria Spartz
Rep. · R-IN-5
Open question+0.97%1.000Across 25 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.97% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Dan Sullivan
Sen. · R-AK
Open question+1.41%1.000Across 93 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.41% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
David J. Taylor
Rep. · R-OH-2
Open question+0.70%1.000Across 226 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.70% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Ritchie Torres
Rep. · D-NY-15
Open question+0.72%1.000Across 123 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.72% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Matt Van Epps
Rep. · R-TN-7
Open question+1.96%1.000Across 13 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 1.96% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz
Rep. · D-FL-25
Open question+3.50%1.000Across 61 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 3.50% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.
Peter Welch
Sen. · D-VT
Open question+0.88%1.000Across 123 priced trades, purchases and sales moved 0.88% in the trade's direction relative to the market over the next month on average.