Rep. Earl L. "Buddy" Carter
Republican · Representative, GA-1
No test fits; open questions on direction before market-wide shocks.
Scorecard
Select a test to see the estimate, interval, adjusted p-values and robustness checks.
T5Direction before market-wide shocksBefore 3 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 3 times.Open question
Question
Before the market's biggest moves, did the member's trades point the right way?
Insider signature
An informed trader's trades just before a market-moving event point in the direction of the coming move.
Analyst note
Hit rate 1.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.37, 1.00]; exact one-sided p = 0.125; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 0.126. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.
- Evidence
- Statistical
- Hit rate
- 100.0% [36.8%, 100.0%] 90%
- p-value
- 0.125
- Holm-adjusted p
- 0.125
- BH q-value
- 1.000
- Margin δ
- 10 points above a coin flip
All computed statistics (7)
| n_episodes | 3 |
| hits | 3 |
| hit_rate | 1 |
| ci | [0.3684, 1] |
| p_exact | 0.1250 |
| p_magnitude | 0.1263 |
| episodes | [[object Object], [object Object], [object Object]] |
T7Disclosure timeliness0 of 46 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 20 days. Another 6 were over 45 days from the trade but filed within 30 days of the stated notification date.Does not fit
Question
Were trades disclosed within the STOCK Act's 45-day limit?
Insider signature
Delayed disclosure can conceal well-timed trades.
Analyst note
Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.056]; 90th percentile lag 60 days; longest 357 days.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Late share
- 0.0% [0.0%, 5.6%] 90%
- Robust to variants
- No, reading changes under some variants
All computed statistics (15)
| n | 46 |
| amendment_rows_excluded | 1 |
| late | 0 |
| late_from_trade | 6 |
| excused_by_notification | 6 |
| late_share | 0 |
| late_ci | [0, 0.0555] |
| median_lag | 20 |
| p90_lag | 60.5000 |
| max_lag | 357 |
| filings | 25 |
| late_filings | 0 |
| late_priced | 0 |
| timely_priced | 4 |
| late_priced_dates | 0 |
| Robustness variant | Reading | Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Late from the trade date alone, ignoring notification dates | Open question | 13.0% |
T16Options and leverageNo option trades were reported.Does not fit
Question
Does the member use options, and do option trades point the right way?
Insider signature
Informed traders favour options because leverage raises the payoff to private information.
Analyst note
No option trades were reported.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (2)
| option_trades | 0 |
| option_share | 0 |
T1Trade sizeOnly 7 directional trades; too few for a size reading.Not assessed
Question
Are the member's trades unusually large, especially just before news?
Insider signature
Informed trades are large relative to the trader's normal activity, because the profit from an informational edge scales with position size.
Analyst note
Only 7 directional trades; too few for a size reading.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 7 |
T2Breadth and concentrationOnly 7 directional trades; too few for a concentration reading.Not assessed
Question
Is trading concentrated in a few companies rather than spread across a diversified portfolio?
Insider signature
Informed trading concentrates in the few issuers tied to the information.
Analyst note
Only 7 directional trades; too few for a concentration reading.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 7 |
T3Cadence and event proximityOnly 7 directional trades; too few for a cadence reading.Not assessed
Question
Do trades arrive in routine rebalancing batches, or sporadically just before company news?
Insider signature
Opportunistic trades carry information and routine trades do not.
Analyst note
Only 7 directional trades; too few for a cadence reading.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 7 |
T4Event timing (abnormal returns)Abnormal returns were not computed (daily prices unavailable or too few priced trades).Not assessed
Question
Do purchases rise and sales fall more than the market in the weeks after the trade?
Insider signature
Purchases before price rises and sales before price falls.
Analyst note
Abnormal returns were not computed (daily prices unavailable or too few priced trades).
- Evidence
- Not computed
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 4 |
T6Control and independenceTrading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.Not assessed
Question
Does the member direct the trades, and does trading change when the member's access to information changes?
Insider signature
The person holding the information directs the trade.
Analyst note
Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.
- Evidence
- Statistical
- Absence rate ratio
- 0.00 [0.00, 137.80] 90%
All computed statistics (6)
| rate_ratio | 0 |
| rate_ratio_ci | [0, 137.8049] |
| rate_ratio_batchdays | 0 |
| rate_ratio_batchdays_ci | [0, 167.0676] |
| absence_days | 9 |
| trades_in_absence | 0 |
T8Committee overlapOnly 7 directional trades; too few for a committee-overlap reading.Not assessed
Question
Does the member trade industries their committees oversee, and do those trades do better?
Insider signature
Members may trade on information about industries their committees oversee.
Analyst note
Only 7 directional trades; too few for a committee-overlap reading.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 7 |
T9Policy-topic overlap0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 4 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.Not assessed
Question
Did trades in stocks affected by the member's legislative work come before votes and move the right way?
Insider signature
Trading on knowledge of legislation before it is public.
Analyst note
0 priced trades fell in affected industries in the 30 days before the member's committee events and 4 did not; at least 10 of each are needed to compare them.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade
All computed statistics (3)
| n | 0 |
| n_other | 4 |
| events | 2882 |
T10Behavior after scrutinyOnly 7 directional trades.Not assessed
Question
Did trading change after press scrutiny or an ethics inquiry?
Insider signature
A member who trades on information has an incentive to keep control of trading after scrutiny.
Analyst note
Only 7 directional trades.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
T11Performance relative to CongressRequires T4 for every member; computed in the cross-member pass.Not assessed
Question
After accounting for noise, does the member's trading beat that of other members?
Insider signature
A member with an information edge stands out from the cross-section of congressional traders.
Analyst note
Requires T4 for every member; computed in the cross-member pass.
- Evidence
- Not computed
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
T12Anticipation of large stock movesNone of the member's priced trades was followed within ten trading days by a large abnormal move.Not assessed
Question
When a traded stock made a large unexpected move soon after the trade, was the trade on the right side?
Insider signature
Buying shortly before a large jump or selling shortly before a large drop.
Analyst note
None of the member's priced trades was followed within ten trading days by a large abnormal move.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 10 points above a coin flip
All computed statistics (2)
| n | 0 |
| priced | 4 |
T13Co-trading with other membersOnly 7 directional trades.Not assessed
Question
Does the member trade the same stock in the same direction as other members at the same time more than chance predicts?
Insider signature
Shared nonpublic information spreads through networks and shows up as clustered trades.
Analyst note
Only 7 directional trades.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 7 |
T14Family-account tradesOnly 7 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.Not assessed
Question
Do trades in a spouse's or dependent's name do better than the member's own?
Insider signature
Routing informed trades through family accounts.
Analyst note
Only 7 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.
- Evidence
- Not computed
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (1)
| owner_unknown | 0 |
T15Short-swing round tripsOnly 7 directional trades.Not assessed
Question
Does the member buy and sell the same stock within six months, and do those round trips beat the market?
Insider signature
Short-horizon round trips capture a temporary informational edge.
Analyst note
Only 7 directional trades.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
Documented episodes
Trades placed near a documented market or policy event, and which way the market moved next.
1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days-3.01%
S&P 500 (SPY) daily move (Aug 21, 2015)
Right way.
1 trade(s) in the prior five trading days-4.21%
S&P 500 (SPY) daily move (Aug 24, 2015)
Right way.
4 trade(s) in the prior five trading days-2.27%
S&P 500 (SPY) daily move (Jul 24, 2024)
Right way.
Largest positions traded
| Company | Trades | Disclosed value |
|---|---|---|
| US Treasury Bill | 4 | $4M to $20M |
| Guardian Point | 1 | $500K to $1M |
| US TREASURY BILL | 1 | $500K to $1M |
| Eaton Vance Large Value | 3 | $450K to $1M |
| ABCB Ameris Bancorp - Common Stock | 4 | $400K to $1M |
| Winslow Large Cap Growth | 2 | $350K to $750K |
| Alternative Investment Partners Absolute Return Fund | 1 | $250K to $500K |
| Uniplan Investment Equity REIT | 1 | $250K to $500K |
All disclosed trades
Amounts are the ranges reported on the filing. Late filings are those made more than 45 days after the trade.
| Trade date | Asset | Type | Amount | Owner | Filed after | 5-day CAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | US Treasury Bill | Sale | $1M to $5M | self | 1 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 17, 2025 | US Treasury Bill | Sale | $1M to $5M | self | 21 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 17, 2025 | US Treasury Bill | Purchase | $1M to $5M | self | 21 d | – | Filing |
| Apr 15, 2025 | US Treasury Bill | Purchase | $1M to $5M | self | 8 d | – | Filing |
| Feb 28, 2025 | US TREASURY BILL | Purchase | $500K to $1M | self | 6 d | – | Filing |
| Jul 23, 2024 | ABCB Ameris Bancorp - Common Stock | Sale | $100K to $250K | self | 1 d | −2.9% | Filing |
| Jul 19, 2024 | ABCB Ameris Bancorp - Common Stock | Sale | $100K to $250K | self | 5 d | −6.4% | Filing |
| Jul 19, 2024 | ABCB Ameris Bancorp - Common Stock | Sale | $100K to $250K | self | 5 d | −6.4% | Filing |
| Jul 18, 2024 | ABCB Ameris Bancorp - Common Stock | Sale | $100K to $250K | self | 6 d | −7.0% | Filing |
| Sep 1, 2023 | Atlanta GA Dev Auth Stdnt HSG | Sale | $15K to $50K | self | 301 d | – | Filing |
| May 1, 2023 | Eaton Vance Large Value | Sale | $100K to $250K | self | 8 d | – | Filing |
| May 1, 2023 | Eaton Vance Large Value | Sale | $100K to $250K | self | 8 d | – | Filing |
| May 1, 2023 | Kayne Anderson Sm Quality Val | Sale | $100K to $250K | self | 8 d | – | Filing |
| May 1, 2023 | Neuberger Berman Intl ADR | Sale | $100K to $250K | self | 8 d | – | Filing |
| May 1, 2023 | Sterling Capital Mgt Mid Val | Sale | $100K to $250K | self | 8 d | – | Filing |
| May 1, 2023 | Winslow Large Cap Growth | Sale | $100K to $250K | self | 408 d | – | Filing |
| Dec 28, 2021 | Eaton Vance Large Value | Sale | $250K to $500K | self | 43 d | – | Filing |
| Dec 28, 2021 | Kayne Anderson Sm Quality Val | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 43 d | – | Filing |
| Dec 28, 2021 | Neuberger Berman Intl ADR | Sale | $50K to $100K | self | 43 d | – | Filing |
| Dec 28, 2021 | Sterling Capital Mgt Mid Val | Sale | $100K to $250K | self | 43 d | – | Filing |
| Dec 28, 2021 | Uniplan Investment Equity REIT | Sale | $250K to $500K | self | 43 d | – | Filing |
| Dec 28, 2021 | Winslow Large Cap Growth | Sale | $250K to $500K | self | 43 d | – | Filing |
| Feb 9, 2021 | First Trust Stifel Best Picks Jan 21 | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 90 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 28, 2020 | AUgUSTA GA WTR & SWR RFDG & IMPT 2ND RESOLUTN | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 12 d | – | Filing |
| Jul 30, 2020 | BULLOCH CNTY GA DEV STDNT HSDG REV RFDG GA STHRN UNIV | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 14 d | – | Filing |
| Jul 30, 2020 | Alternative Investment Partners Absolute Return Fund | Sale | $250K to $500K | self | 286 d | – | Filing |
| Jun 25, 2020 | FULTON CNTY GA WTR & SWR REV | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 49 d | – | Filing |
| May 13, 2020 | MARIETTA GA DEV AUTH RFDG SPSU STDNT HSg | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 29 d | – | Filing |
| May 13, 2020 | PRIVATE CLLGS & UNIV REV SAVANNAH CLLG ART & DSGN | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 29 d | – | Filing |
| Oct 23, 2019 | MILTON Ga PUb BLDGS FACS AUTH REV B/E (12/01/37) | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 12 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 30, 2019 | GEORGIA ST RFDG SER B/E (Due 7/01/20) | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 19 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 2, 2019 | BULLOCH CNTY Ga DEV RFDG Ga STHRN UNIV HSg FNDTN (Due 08/01/25) | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 3 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 2, 2019 | LAWRENCEVILLE Ga BLDG AUTH REV PERFORMING ARTS CMPLX (Due 10/01/37) | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 3 d | – | Filing |
| Jul 2, 2019 | Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Tran Sales Tax Rev | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 17 d | – | Filing |
| May 9, 2019 | Metro Atlanta Rapid Auth (07/01/36) | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 27 d | – | Filing |
| May 9, 2019 | Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Tran Auth (07/01/28) | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 27 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 22, 2018 | Cobb CNTY Ga WTR & S REV IMPT B/E | Purchase | $50K to $100K | self | 21 d | – | Filing |
| Jan 1, 2018 | Guardian Point | Purchase | $500K to $1M | self | 11 d | – | Filing |
| Jul 1, 2016 | GAS AGL Resources, Inc. | Sale | $15K to $50K | self | 40 d | – | Filing |
| Mar 9, 2016 | MONROE CNTY Ga DEV a POLLTN CTL REV Ga PWR Co (Due 07/01/25) | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 27 d | – | Filing |
| Mar 9, 2016 | SUGAR HILL Ga DWNTN AUTH REV EPICTR (Due 12/01/29) | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 27 d | – | Filing |
| Sep 10, 2015 | Savannah Ga Econ Dev Auth Rev Rfdg Armstrong Ctr (Due 12/01/27) | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 0 d | – | Filing |
| Sep 4, 2015 | GAS AGL Resources, Inc. | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 6 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 25, 2015 | Lawrenceville Ga Bld Auth Rev Lawrenceville (Due 04/01/27) | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 16 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 18, 2015 | OCR Omnicare, Inc. | Sale | $15K to $50K | self | 357 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 14, 2015 | Carroll City Cnty Ho Auth Ga Rev Antic (Due 07/01/27) | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 27 d | – | Filing |
| Mar 11, 2015 | ALBANY DOUGHTERY AUTH Ga INNER CITY REV BOND | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 72 d | – | Filing |