Rep. Hakeem S. Jeffries
Democrat · Representative, NY-8
23 disclosed trades; no test found the informed-trading signature.
Scorecard
Select a test to see the estimate, interval, adjusted p-values and robustness checks.
T5Direction before market-wide shocksBefore 1 large market moves, the member's net trading pointed the right way 0 times.Does not fit
Question
Before the market's biggest moves, did the member's trades point the right way?
Insider signature
An informed trader's trades just before a market-moving event point in the direction of the coming move.
Analyst note
Hit rate 0.00, Clopper-Pearson 90% [0.00, 0.95]; exact one-sided p = 1.000; magnitude-weighted sign-flip p = 1.000. Episodes: benchmark days beyond three rolling standard deviations with trades in the prior five trading days, plus documented episodes when supplied.
- Evidence
- Statistical
- Hit rate
- 0.0% [0.0%, 95.0%] 90%
- p-value
- 1.000
- Holm-adjusted p
- 1.000
- BH q-value
- 1.000
- Margin δ
- 10 points above a coin flip
All computed statistics (7)
| n_episodes | 1 |
| hits | 0 |
| hit_rate | 0 |
| ci | [0, 0.9500] |
| p_exact | 1 |
| p_magnitude | 1 |
| episodes | [[object Object]] |
T7Disclosure timeliness0 of 23 trades (0.0%) were disclosed late; median lag 21 days.Does not fit
Question
Were trades disclosed within the STOCK Act's 45-day limit?
Insider signature
Delayed disclosure can conceal well-timed trades.
Analyst note
Late share 0.000, Wilson [0.000, 0.105]; 90th percentile lag 31 days; longest 32 days.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Late share
- 0.0% [0.0%, 10.5%] 90%
All computed statistics (15)
| n | 23 |
| amendment_rows_excluded | 0 |
| late | 0 |
| late_from_trade | 0 |
| excused_by_notification | 0 |
| late_share | 0 |
| late_ci | [0, 0.1053] |
| median_lag | 21 |
| p90_lag | 30.8000 |
| max_lag | 32 |
| filings | 14 |
| late_filings | 0 |
| late_priced | 0 |
| timely_priced | 9 |
| late_priced_dates | 0 |
T16Options and leverageNo option trades were reported.Does not fit
Question
Does the member use options, and do option trades point the right way?
Insider signature
Informed traders favour options because leverage raises the payoff to private information.
Analyst note
No option trades were reported.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (2)
| option_trades | 0 |
| option_share | 0 |
T1Trade sizeOnly 9 directional trades; too few for a size reading.Not assessed
Question
Are the member's trades unusually large, especially just before news?
Insider signature
Informed trades are large relative to the trader's normal activity, because the profit from an informational edge scales with position size.
Analyst note
Only 9 directional trades; too few for a size reading.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 9 |
T2Breadth and concentrationOnly 9 directional trades; too few for a concentration reading.Not assessed
Question
Is trading concentrated in a few companies rather than spread across a diversified portfolio?
Insider signature
Informed trading concentrates in the few issuers tied to the information.
Analyst note
Only 9 directional trades; too few for a concentration reading.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 9 |
T3Cadence and event proximityOnly 9 directional trades; too few for a cadence reading.Not assessed
Question
Do trades arrive in routine rebalancing batches, or sporadically just before company news?
Insider signature
Opportunistic trades carry information and routine trades do not.
Analyst note
Only 9 directional trades; too few for a cadence reading.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 9 |
T4Event timing (abnormal returns)Abnormal returns were not computed (daily prices unavailable or too few priced trades).Not assessed
Question
Do purchases rise and sales fall more than the market in the weeks after the trade?
Insider signature
Purchases before price rises and sales before price falls.
Analyst note
Abnormal returns were not computed (daily prices unavailable or too few priced trades).
- Evidence
- Not computed
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 9 |
T6Control and independenceTrading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.Not assessed
Question
Does the member direct the trades, and does trading change when the member's access to information changes?
Insider signature
The person holding the information directs the trade.
Analyst note
Trading arrangement: not documented; trading during absence ran at 0.00 times the normal rate.
- Evidence
- Statistical
- Absence rate ratio
- 0.00 [0.00, 168.84] 90%
All computed statistics (6)
| rate_ratio | 0 |
| rate_ratio_ci | [0, 168.8415] |
| rate_ratio_batchdays | 0 |
| rate_ratio_batchdays_ci | [0, 350.7912] |
| absence_days | 2 |
| trades_in_absence | 0 |
T8Committee overlapNo committee assignments on record for this member.Not assessed
Question
Does the member trade industries their committees oversee, and do those trades do better?
Insider signature
Members may trade on information about industries their committees oversee.
Analyst note
No committee assignments on record for this member.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
T9Policy-topic overlapNo legislative events tied to this member's committees.Not assessed
Question
Did trades in stocks affected by the member's legislative work come before votes and move the right way?
Insider signature
Trading on knowledge of legislation before it is public.
Analyst note
No legislative events tied to this member's committees.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade
T10Behavior after scrutinyOnly 9 directional trades.Not assessed
Question
Did trading change after press scrutiny or an ethics inquiry?
Insider signature
A member who trades on information has an incentive to keep control of trading after scrutiny.
Analyst note
Only 9 directional trades.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
T11Performance relative to CongressRequires T4 for every member; computed in the cross-member pass.Not assessed
Question
After accounting for noise, does the member's trading beat that of other members?
Insider signature
A member with an information edge stands out from the cross-section of congressional traders.
Analyst note
Requires T4 for every member; computed in the cross-member pass.
- Evidence
- Not computed
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
T12Anticipation of large stock movesNone of the member's priced trades was followed within ten trading days by a large abnormal move.Not assessed
Question
When a traded stock made a large unexpected move soon after the trade, was the trade on the right side?
Insider signature
Buying shortly before a large jump or selling shortly before a large drop.
Analyst note
None of the member's priced trades was followed within ten trading days by a large abnormal move.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 10 points above a coin flip
All computed statistics (2)
| n | 0 |
| priced | 9 |
T13Co-trading with other membersOnly 9 directional trades.Not assessed
Question
Does the member trade the same stock in the same direction as other members at the same time more than chance predicts?
Insider signature
Shared nonpublic information spreads through networks and shows up as clustered trades.
Analyst note
Only 9 directional trades.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
All computed statistics (1)
| n | 9 |
T14Family-account tradesOnly 9 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.Not assessed
Question
Do trades in a spouse's or dependent's name do better than the member's own?
Insider signature
Routing informed trades through family accounts.
Analyst note
Only 9 trades name the account owner; at least 10 are needed.
- Evidence
- Not computed
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
All computed statistics (1)
| owner_unknown | 0 |
T15Short-swing round tripsOnly 9 directional trades.Not assessed
Question
Does the member buy and sell the same stock within six months, and do those round trips beat the market?
Insider signature
Short-horizon round trips capture a temporary informational edge.
Analyst note
Only 9 directional trades.
- Evidence
- Descriptive
- Margin δ
- 0.5% per trade over 21 days
Documented episodes
Trades placed near a documented market or policy event, and which way the market moved next.
5 trade(s) in the prior five trading days-1.56%
S&P 500 (SPY) daily move (Aug 17, 2017)
Wrong way.
Largest positions traded
| Company | Trades | Disclosed value |
|---|---|---|
| Lord Abbett Floating Rate Fund Class C | 3 | $66K to $165K |
| REGL ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | 3 | $17K to $80K |
| VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF | 1 | $15K to $50K |
| SCHD | 1 | $15K to $50K |
| VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | 2 | $2,002 to $30K |
| BlackRock Life Path 2020 Fund | 1 | $1,001 to $15K |
| DFA US Small CAP Portfolio | 1 | $1,001 to $15K |
| Bank of America, Na RASP | 1 | $1,001 to $15K |
All disclosed trades
Amounts are the ranges reported on the filing. Late filings are those made more than 45 days after the trade.
| Trade date | Asset | Type | Amount | Owner | Filed after | 5-day CAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2021 | BlackRock Lifepath Index 2035 K Fund | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | spouse | 13 d | – | Filing |
| May 4, 2021 | Millennium Trust Company Traditional IRA | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | spouse | 26 d | – | Filing |
| Apr 19, 2021 | VEA | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 6 d | – | Filing |
| Apr 12, 2021 | SCHD | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 4 d | – | Filing |
| Mar 30, 2021 | LARCX | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 11 d | – | Filing |
| Mar 15, 2021 | REGL | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | joint | 26 d | – | Filing |
| Nov 25, 2020 | REGL ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | joint | 31 d | +2.3% | Filing |
| Feb 12, 2019 | SDY SPDR S&P Dividend ETF | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | joint | 32 d | −0.5% | Filing |
| Dec 24, 2018 | Lord Abbett Floating Rate Fund Class C | Sale | $50K to $100K | self | 32 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 30, 2018 | Lord Abbett Floating Rate Fund Class C | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 30 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 23, 2018 | REGL ProShares S&P MidCap 400 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | Purchase | $15K to $50K | joint | 27 d | −0.8% | Filing |
| Aug 21, 2018 | VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF | Sale | $15K to $50K | joint | 29 d | −0.2% | Filing |
| Jun 15, 2018 | Russell Lifepoint Balanced Strategy Fund Class C (Northwestern Mutual) | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | joint | 20 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 15, 2017 | Lord Abbett Floating Rate Fund Class C | Purchase | $15K to $50K | self | 10 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 15, 2017 | IUSG ISHARES Core S&P u.S. Growth ETF | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 21 d | +0.2% | Filing |
| Aug 15, 2017 | IUSV ISHARES Core S&P u.S. Value ETF | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 21 d | −0.4% | Filing |
| Aug 15, 2017 | LQD ISHARES IBOXX $ Invt Grade Corp Bond | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 21 d | +0.4% | Filing |
| Aug 15, 2017 | GOVT ISHARES u.S. Treasury Bond ETF | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 21 d | +0.3% | Filing |
| Aug 15, 2017 | VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 21 d | +0.7% | Filing |
| Aug 15, 2017 | Vanguard Mortgage-Backed SEC | Purchase | $1,001 to $15K | self | 21 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 14, 2017 | Bank of America, Na RASP | Exchange | $1,001 to $15K | self | 11 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 15, 2016 | BlackRock Life Path 2020 Fund | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 26 d | – | Filing |
| Aug 15, 2016 | DFA US Small CAP Portfolio | Sale | $1,001 to $15K | self | 26 d | – | Filing |